Phil Clarke looks at where Leeds have gone wrong in 2016
Wednesday 13 April 2016 17:57, UK
How do you fall so far, so fast? After filling the trophy cabinet with all the silverware last season, it looks as though Leeds might not even make the Top 8.
Results in the Premier League seem to have been mirrored in the Super League and Leeds' losses have looked like those of Chelsea last autumn. What's gone wrong?
A colleague has suggested that last year was the anomaly because Leeds struggled in the four seasons prior to 2015, finishing sixth, third, fifth and fifth. Perhaps they were just very luck in 2015.
One thing is certain: their attack is nowhere near as good as it was in 2015. They've scored less than half the number of tries than they did in the opening 10 rounds of last season.
Why?
Finishing opportunities and accuracy
Well, it isn't due to a lack of field position. Most tries in rugby league are scored when a team get close to their opponents' tryline (ie inside their opponents' 20-metre zone).
This year, Leeds have spent more time inside that area but seem to have forgotten how to score.
After round 10 in 2015, Leeds had 260 play-the-balls in the opposition's 20-metre zone and had scored 32 tries.
Fast forward to round 10 in 2016, and Leeds have had 320 play-the-balls in the 20-metre zone but have scored only 19 tries.
In 2015, many of Leeds' best tries came from some brilliant offloads. They still offload the ball as much but they have not been as effective.
Leeds' skill level seems to be a bit below the superb standard they set last year as they've made significantly more handling errors in 2016.
The opposition also know what is coming, so when Leeds do create that second-phase play, teams are ready for them.
Personnel changes
Personnel changes have obviously had an impact, but I don't think you can blame their dip in form solely on the loss of experienced players.
That said, the absence of Kevin Sinfield's goal-kicking may have cost them a victory or two this season.
The Rhinos have lost five games in which they have scored the same number of tries as their opponents and their main goal-kicker, Liam Sutcliffe, has been successful in just over 60% of his goals.
Zak Hardaker has just four successes from eight attempts and while Jordan Lilley has kicked well, he has spent less time on the field than the other two.
Jamie Peacock did make metres for Leeds when he ran the ball, but they have other big forwards who can do that.
What JP did better than his replacements was provide an accurate and well-timed pass that helped to create space out wide.
They managed to cover the injury to Paul Aiton at the end of last season, but a good hooker is essential to a good team and Leeds are still waiting to see what Beau Falloon can do.
Without Tom Briscoe and Ryan Hall, they don't look as scary on kick returns, which are a vital aspect of the game.
Hardaker isn't playing at the level that he did 12 months ago and they now look like a team under pressure, rather than a relaxed one. They could even be trying too hard.
Training ground impact
The flooding of their training ground in December has probably had a bigger impact than I first imagined as their skill last year came as a result of the time and effort that they put into passing the ball more.
Without a regular pitch to practice on they've wasted time moving from one temporary pitch to another and it's shown.
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In a way, they have an unfair advantage over several other sides who don't have the luxury of the training base that Leeds use.
It looks like it will be several weeks before they return but they cannot wait that long until the start picking up the wins.
Time is now
There are many reasons why Leeds find themselves one place off the bottom of the table, but not many games for them to do something about it.
By my reckoning, they need to win nine of their next 13 games, which won't be easy as six of the next seven are against teams already in the Top 8. However, as Hull showed when Jamie Shaul scored his try on Good Friday, things can turn around very quickly in sport.
If ever there was a game to kick-start 2016, it's at home to a Hull side that have won their past five matches on the bounce.
Can Leeds get back to winning ways against Hull FC? Watch live on Sky Sports 2 HD on Friday from 7.30pm. Catch the match for £6.99 on NOW TV. No contract.
