Tuesday 13 October 2015 13:24, UK
Roger Federer looks the only player capable of beating Novak Djokovic at the Shanghai Rolex Masters, with the shorter format making him a tempting 4/1 shot.
Changes in the ATP Tour calendar saw the Swiss star drop down to third in the world on Monday morning, but that came too late to impact Saturday's Shanghai draw, meaning he avoids Djokovic and has a relatively favourable route to the final.
I say relatively as such a thing doesn't really exist in a Masters event boasting the top 20 players in ATP Race to London.
Can Federer defend his title? Sky Bet are enhancing his odds from 100/30 to 4/1.
Being placed in the same half as Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikoki might have previously been a nightmare for the second seed, but neither are operating near the peak of their powers.
Federer has not faced Nadal, who leads their head-to-head record 23-10, since their 2014 Australian Open meeting, with the Spaniard significantly declining in the following 18 months, while Nishikori (Federer leads H2H 3-2) has lost to world No 25 Benoit Paire in his last two events and his last two meetings with Federer in straight sets.
Stan Wawrinka (Federer leads H2H 17-3) arguably poses the biggest threat to Federer's final hopes but was totally outclassed in their most recent meeting, a 6-4 6-3 6-1 loss at the US Open.
Therefore, Federer will go off as comfortable favourite against anyone in his half, while he'd surely be no longer than 6/4 for a final match up with Djokovic, having prevailed in five out of their last eight clashes in a three-set format.
The 34-year-old has come unstuck when the physical battle has come his way in 2015, struggling in the Grand Slams and on slower surfaces, but his record has elsewhere been second to none.
Indeed, in grass or hard-court non-major events, Federer boasts a 24-1 record, with his solitary defeat coming to Djokovic over three sets in Indian Wells, arguably the slowest hard-court on the ATP Tour.
The 17-time Grand Slam champion avenged that loss in straight-sets in Cincinnati before going down in four in the US Open final, despite racking up an incredible 23 break points, 10 more than the champion.
The finish line often appears too far over five sets against the stubborn Serb, but Federer has proven time and time again that he still has the weapons to beat him in two.
That includes in the Shanghai semis last year; Djokovic's first defeat in 28 matches in China, when he produced what the world No 1 described a "perfect performance".
Djokovic is currently operating pretty close to perfection, following his US Open success with a sixth title in Beijing, thrashing Rafael Nadal 6-2 6-2 in the final.
However, 17-time Grand Slam champion Federer seems to relish the opportunity to remind the Djokovic of his ultimate supremacy whenever he finds his peak, also breaking his 43-match winning streak in 2011.
We obviously should not totally discount the other options out there with such an array of talent on show, including an Andy Murray fresh from his Davis Cup heroics.
I tipped the Scot for the title in Washington after Great Britain's quarter-final win and was left embarrassed, with world 53 Teymuraz Gabashvili ending his hopes at the first hurdle.
However, on reflection it is perhaps understandable that Murray would struggle to find the same motivation in returning to solo pursuits after the adulation of leading his nation to glory, so I'd steer clear of his odds of 6/1, especially with Djokovic in his half.
There's added incentive for the chasing pack in the battle for World Tour Finals qualification and the likes of Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet will all be eager to rack up points.
However, woeful head-to-heads against the top seeds makes them unappealing in the outright unless you are sensing that the favourites will all be uncharacteristically out of sorts.
So I'm going for Federer to give the current top man another reminder of who really is the greatest of all time and defend his title.
