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Could Mercedes really drop Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg?

With Ferrari on the rise, cracks appearing at the Silver Arrows, and a strength in danger of becoming a weakness, Toto Wolff's warning to Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg must be taken seriously...

Image: Toto Wolff's comments are a warning to Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg

What's particularly striking about Toto Wolff's warning that Mercedes may have to split their warring driver partnership of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg is its depth and detail.

These aren't wistful asides or throwaway comments twisted out of context into attention-grabbing click bait but a reasoned, meticulous and explicit warning. The Mercedes boss knew exactly what he was saying and how his words would be interpreted. The 'Lewis or Nico could be dropped' headlines are precisely what he would have expected - which must be precisely why he, effectively, wrote the story.

But are his remarks merely a warning, a last-ditch plea to his bickering drivers to clean up their behaviour, or could they be the first step towards a change of drivers for 2017?

Why change a winning team?
The reflex reaction to Wolff's warning for many will be deep scepticism that the world champions would change a winning team and a driver line-up which has propelled them to successive championship doubles.

It's a trenchant riposte.

But Wolff's comments should be seen in the context of what's to come rather than what has already occurred.

In any case, there are plenty who believe Hamilton and Rosberg have been the fortunate recipients of Mercedes' engineering and mechanical excellence over the last two years rather than the driving force behind their success. There isn't a driver in the field who doesn't believe he would have won in 2015 with the W06. Is this Wolff's way of pulling his drivers into line by reminding them that, no matter their undoubted calibre, they need Mercedes far more than Mercedes needs them?

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Both Rosberg and Hamilton have received that message before. After their collision at Spa in August last year, Wolff told reporters: "This is an organisation that puts a lot of effort into what we do, we have more than 1,000 people who are part of the team and everyone must follow that racing spirit. We would love to continue with Lewis and we want to continue with Nico.

"They know what our expectations are and I have no doubt that we won't see such a Spa incident in the future. We have made it clear that it is an unacceptable scenario."

The truce has held for 18 months but Wolff's patience has clearly now snapped. It's also noticeable that his warning, stressing that the Hamilton-Rosberg line-up is under threat, is even more explicit now than it was after their race-wrecking Spa implosion.

Image: Hamilton and Rosberg have won 32 of the 38 races since the start of 2014

A shift in the landscape
There are two overreaching big picture elements to keep in mind when considering Wolff's remarks.

The first is that although Hamilton has two more years left on his deal, Nico Rosberg's contract expires at the end of 2016 and another head-to-head defeat to his team-mate next year will inevitably put his future in considerable doubt.

If Mercedes are a team which reward success, they also appear to be a team which only rewards success. While Hamilton was raised to the status of Britain's highest paid sportsman two months after winning the 2014 championship, it's also worth recalling that Rosberg's current deal, extending his guaranteed stay until the end of next season, was signed in July 2014 when he, not Hamilton, was leading the world championship. "With his performances in 2014, Nico has demonstrated to the outside world what we knew already in the team: that he is one of the very top drivers in Formula 1," Wolff said at the time.

Since then, however, Rosberg has been consistently reduced to a distant second best to his team-mate. Although the German finished the year in style by winning the final three races, the fact remains Hamilton had already won the war with a month to spare. Speaking at the US GP in the immediate aftermath of Hamilton's coronation, Wolff all-but admitted that Rosberg would have to consider changing teams if he couldn't beat Hamilton in 2016.

"No, I think that Nico is going to tackle next year full steam ahead," Wolff replied when asked if a repeat of 2015 could persuade Rosberg to leave. "If it doesn't go as he thinks it could go, maybe he is going to have that thought, but he is not there, he is not yet there. And hopefully he never will be."

In many respects, therefore, quite how much of a threat you consider Wolff's remarks to be to Rosberg's future is dependent on how much significance you apply to Rosberg's hat-trick of wins at the conclusion of this season.

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After winning the US Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton throws Nico Rosberg's podium hat to him, only for Nico to throw it right back

The red tide is rising
The second big picture context to Wolff's warning is the expectation that Ferrari will be a genuine match for Mercedes next season.

For the last two seasons, the Rosberg-Hamilton rivalry has suited Mercedes. Only last month, Wolff credited Rosberg for pushing Hamilton to his peak performance in the wake of the world's champion coronation.

But is a previously-perceived strength now regarded as a potential weakness?

Mercedes are clearly worried about the threat from Ferrari. Wolff has admitted Mercedes may build a 'radical' successor to the W06 and the team's recent letter to the FIA, detailing concerns about Ferrari's working relationship with Haas, is further evidence of how anxious they are. But what's also abundantly apparent from the small print of Wolff's remarks is that, despite previously suiting the team, the discord between Hamilton and Rosberg is now recognised by the Silver Arrows hierarchy as their potential Achilles Heel next year.

"We are having huge unity within the team, but the difficult relationship of the drivers is one of our weaknesses," conceded the Mercedes chief. "And that is not good. If I were to analyse what are the biggest strengths and the biggest weakness of the team, I would say the biggest strength is the quality and the characters of the personalities within the team. The biggest weakness is the dynamic of the relationship between the drivers - and sometimes between the drivers and the team."

By contrast, which Mercedes are surely aware of, there is an implacable equilibrium at Ferrari with Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel working hand in glove to revitalise the Scuderia. Mercedes, when compared to their unified rivals, look like a team divided. "It was almost like realising these two are enemies competing for the world title," Wolff said of the Rosberg-Hamilton rivalry last year.

The friends turned foes are under orders to become friends again - for everyone's benefit.

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After the race in Abu Dhabi, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg were asked whether they would exchange Christmas presents

Cracks in the Silver Arrows?
One final point. During his briefing, Wolff mentioned "there's lots going on behind closed doors."

It's an intriguing description which begs a potentially salient question: has something occurred within their inner sanctum to snap Mercedes' patience and cause a seismic shift in policy?

It's possible if not probable. Hamilton and Rosberg have barely exchanged a word for months and their relationship has, despite a series of nadirs in 2014, plumbed new depths in recent times. "I know the team has felt the need to be extra warm [towards Rosberg]," Hamilton told reporters at his post-race press briefing in Mexico. "I do know what I mean but I'm not going to say what I mean. You should ask Toto [Wolff] and Niki [Lauda]. Put those questions to them about how they feel about it [and] what they have to do behind the scenes to keep him happy."

The public acrimony between Hamilton and Rosberg may be just the tip of the iceberg. Has the atmosphere within the garage become so toxic to be self-defeating? Mercedes have bristled for months against depictions they are 'at war'. But the question has to be asked: if Wolff is demanding a truce, aren't Mercedes admitting their drivers really are at war?

PG

Don't miss the F1 Midweek Report for analysis of the Abu Dhabi GP and all the latest F1 news. Former BAR boss David Richards and car designer Gary Anderson join Natalie Pinkham on Sky Sports F1 at 8:30pm on Wednesday.

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