DP World Tour Championship: Victor Dubuisson the man to back
Tuesday 15 November 2016 18:30, UK
Betting expert Ben Coley bids to end a lucrative European Tour season with another winner as he takes on the favourites in the DP World Tour Championship.
Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson have dominated the DP World Tour Championship, winning two editions each since Alvaro Quiros took the title in 2011.
Both arrive in form - even if Stenson will have been disappointed to finish 'only' eighth in the Nedbank Challenge - and while such things rarely come to pass, a shootout between the two is a genuine possibility.
McIlroy is favourite at 3/1 as he seeks a third win in five starts and history shows that he's virtually impossible to keep out of the frame when playing his favourite courses on the European Tour.
The Earth Course - a long par 72 which favours big-hitters - represents a comfort zone for the world number two and while he's been pushed close by Justin Rose and Andy Sullivan here, ultimately he's been able to get the job done.
Stenson was most disappointing when bidding for a hat-trick 12 months ago but had previously produced the two most dominant displays in the history of the tournament, playing the golf of his life to romp home in 2013 and comfortably defending his title a year later.
He's a 6/1 chance and again, it's hard to see how he fails to go close even on the back of an underwhelming effort at Sun City.
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For those looking for each-way value, Thorbjorn Olesen tops the list at 100/1.
The Dane is inconsistent but knows how to win, as we saw in Turkey a fortnight ago, and with a solid record in the desert he should be confident of ending the season on a high.
Olesen has been inside the top three in the Dubai Desert Classic, Qatar Masters and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and while not quite as good here it's a course he knows well as he spends much of the winter using the first-class facilities to hone his game.
He's long enough to take aggressive lines off the tee and it's not asking much for him to turn the consistency he's shown in five visits - in which he's finished no worse than 21st - into a victory. He's certainly overpriced.
Victor Dubuisson has a similar profile to Olesen and now could be the time to catch him after a return to form last week.
The Frenchman has twice been placed behind Stenson here and with both wins coming in the European Tour Final Series, he's clearly adept at ending the year on the front foot.
Dubuisson appeared happy with all aspects of his game last week and certainly shone from tee to green, so back him to bring that confidence to the desert where he's always thrived.
Other options include Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Louis Oosthuizen, but I'm heading to the side markets for my other bets because the big two here are likely to prove hard to beat.
First up, Alejandro Canizares can bag a top-10 finish having done so in four of his last 10 starts.
The Spaniard also secured two top-10s in three starts in the Middle East at the start of the year and has played well at this course recently, too, so at 6/1 he looks a fine bet to keep up his consistent profile.
In the first-round leader betting, there's definite scope for a big-priced winner and it could pay to focus on the early starters, who will get first look at these immaculate greens.
Marcus Fraser has been first and second after the first round in his last two visits, so while his recent form isn't anything special he's worth a speculative play at 150/1.
Fraser led after round one of the Olympics back in the summer and while he's not powerful enough to put together four rounds here, he's clearly capable of going low on Thursday.
So too is Renato Paratore, the young Italian with an enormous future.
Of all the events he's now played in two years on the European Tour, Paratore has impressed most at the Dubai Desert Classic, which bodes well for his debut here.
He led after round one of the Czech Masters last year, an event played on another long golf course, and having been in decent nick lately looks capable of posting a low one early.
