Wednesday 8 January 2014 09:54, UK
A preview and stats ahead of this week's Volvo Golf Champions at Durban Country Club in South Africa.
FORM in SOUTH AFRICA
Co-sanctioned European Tour events since January 1st, 2013
Player: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8
Thomas Aiken: - / 6 / 12 / MC / 17 / MC / - / 35
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Thomas Bjorn: 9 / - / - / - / - / - / Won / -
Paul Casey: 18 / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Darren Clarke: 22 / - / - / 63 / - / - / - / -
Jamie Donaldson: 16 / - / - / - / - / - / 2 / -
Victor Dubuisson: - / - / - / - / - / - / 20 / -
Gonzalo F'dez-Castano: 20 / - / - / - / - / - / 11 / -
Darren Fichardt: 29 / 25 / Won / 2 / 37 / MC / 12 / 50
Tommy Fleetwood: - / 14 / 49 / - / - / - / - / -
Stephen Gallacher: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Branden Grace: 7 / MC / - / - / - / - / 20 / 6
Padraig Harrington: 4 / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Michael Hoey: 25 / - / - / MC / MC / Ret / - / 50
David Howell: - / - / - / 10 / - / - / - / -
Mikko Ilonen: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Raphael Jacquelin: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Jin Jeong: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Miguel Angel Jimenez: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Robert Karlsson: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Joost Luiten: - / - / 49 / 27 / - / - / 16 / -
David Lynn: - / - / - / - / - / - / 25 / -
Morten Orum Madsen: - / MC / 20 / 8 / Won / 16 / 25 / -
Matteo Manassero: 9 / - / - / - / - / - / 22 / -
Colin Montgomerie: 29 / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Jose Maria Olazabal: 32 / - / - / 76 / - / - / - / -
Louis Oosthuizen: Won / - / - / - / - / - / 14 / -
Julien Quesne: 5 / - / - / MC / - / - / - / -
Brett Rumford: - / - / 12 / - / - / - / - / -
Charl Schwartzel: - / 2 / - / - / 4 / Won / 6 / -
Marcel Siem: 26 / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Richard Sterne: - / Won / - / - / - / MC / 14 / -
Simon Thornton: - / - / - / - / 59 / MC / - / MC
Peter Uihlein: - / 19 / - / 4 / - / - / 10 / -
Dawie Van Der Walt: - / MC / MC / Won / MC / MC / 24 / Won
Chris Wood: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Key: 1 - Durban *; 2 - Royal Johannesburg & Kensington; 3 - East London; 4 - Copperleaf; 5 - Glendower; 6 - Leopard Creek; 7 - Sun City; 8 - Mount Edgecombe
* - This week's venue
MOST TOP-10 FINISHES in SOUTH AFRICA
(At co-sanctioned European Tour events since start of 2008)
Total
15: Charl Schwartzel
8: Thomas Aiken
8: Branden Grace
7: Richard Sterne
6: Louis Oosthuizen
5: Dawie Van Der Walt
4: Darren Fichardt
3: Morten Orum Madsen
LAST 10 TOURNAMENTS WEEKS on EUROPEAN TOUR
Player: 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10
Thomas Aiken: 38 / - / 61 / - / 15 / 55 / 17 / MC / - / 35
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: - / - / - / 55 / 54 / 29 / - / - / - / -
Thomas Bjorn: 57 / - / 5 / 39 / 18 / 21 / - / - / Won / -
Paul Casey: - / MC / 8 / 20 / 12 / 54 / - / - / - / -
Darren Clarke: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Jamie Donaldson: 6 / - / 34 / 8 / 2 / 8 / - / - / 2 / -
Victor Dubuisson: 17 / - / 44 / - / Won / 3 / - / - / 20 / -
Gonzalo F'dez-Castano: 57 / - / Won / 39 / - / 37 / - / - / 11 / -
Darren Fichardt: - / - / 24 / 61 / 15 / 21 / 37 / MC / 12 / 50
Tommy Fleetwood: 26 / - / 34 / 18 / 36 / 37 / - / - / - / -
Stephen Gallacher: 3 / - / 53 / 63 / 25 / 34 / - / - / - / -
Branden Grace: - / 43 / 61 / 39 / 29 / 52 / - / - / 20 / 6
Padraig Harrington: - / - / 27 / - / 50 / - / - / - / - / -
Michael Hoey: MC / 18 / - / - / - / - / MC / Ret / - / 50
David Howell: 51 / - / 61 / 70 / 44 / 34 / - / - / - / -
Mikko Ilonen: - / - / 48 / 21 / - / 19 / - / - / - / -
Raphael Jacquelin: 63 / - / 48 / 73 / 5 / 44 / - / - / - / -
Jin Jeong: - / Won / - / 18 / - / - / - / - / - / -
Miguel Angel Jimenez: 57 / - / 60 / 72 / 70 / 8 / - / - / Won / -
Robert Karlsson: - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Joost Luiten: 51 / - / Ret / - / 18 / 4 / - / - / 16 / -
David Lynn: Won / - / - / 39 / 36 / 42 / - / - / 25 / -
Morten Orum Madsen: 51 / - / - / - / 63 / - / Won / 16 / 25 / -
Matteo Manassero: MC / - / - / 21 / 44 / 21 / - / - / 22 / -
Colin Montgomerie: - / - / - / - / 63 / - / - / - / - / -
Jose Maria Olazabal: MC / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
Louis Oosthuizen: - / - / 59 / 15 / 67 / 32 / - / - / 14 / -
Julien Quesne: 46 / - / 34 / - / 12 / 47 / - / - / - / -
Brett Rumford: - / 6 / 15 / 76 / 72 / 47 / - / - / - / -
Charl Schwartzel: - / - / - / - / 29 / - / 4 / Won / 6 / -
Marcel Siem: 17 / - / 34 / - / 41 / 39 / - / - / - / -
Richard Sterne: - / - / 31 / 39 / 36 / 14 / - / MC / 14 / -
Simon Thornton: 8 / - / - / - / - / - / 59 / MC / - / MC
Peter Uihlein: - / - / 5 / 55 / 57 / 51 / - / - / 10 / -
Dawie Van Der Walt: MC / MC / - / - / - / - / MC / MC / 24 / Won
Chris Wood: 26 / - / 75 / 39 / 15 / 29 / - / - / - / -
Key: 1 - Portugal Masters; 2 - Perth International; 3 - BMW Masters*; 4 - HSBC Champions*; 5 - Turkish Airlines Open*; 6 - DP World Championship*; 7 - South African Open; 8 - Alfred Dunhill Championship; 9 - Nedbank Challenge / Hong Kong Open; 10 - Nelson Mandela Ch'ship
* - Part of Final Series
LOWEST ROUNDS in LAST YEAR'S VOLVO CHAMPIONS
64: Scott Jamieson (2nd round)
64: Louis Oosthuizen (2nd round)
Durban Country Club: Par 72; 6,689 yards
Winning Totals (Last Three Times on European Tour):
2013: 272 (Louis Oosthuizen - Volvo Champions)
2010: 263 (Ernie Els - South African Open)
2005: 273 (Tim Clark - South African Open)
Conclusion
The stats suggest another home South African win so with Schwartzel such a short price and Oosthuizen still coming back from injury it looks best to side with Branden Grace at 20/1.
He produced some decent golf at the back end of 2013 and feels positive that everything will click in a big way again soon.
As a proven winner, he certainly won't back off if he gets in contention.
Like Grace, Paul Casey is a former winner of this event having won the inaugural running in Bahrain in 2011 while he closed with three successive 69s on this course last year.
Three of his last five European Tour wins have come in January so he's a player who appears to relish wiping the slate clean and coming out of the blocks fast.
To add to that feeling of a new start and looking ahead to a bright future he also got engaged to girlfriend Pollyanna Woodward over the festive period.
Casey admits he is "loving golf and loving life" again and he has a very clear goal in front of him in these early months of the season - to improve his world ranking from 87th to something inside the top 50 so he can book a return to his beloved Augusta for The Masters.
At his best, the Englishman - a 12-time European Tour winner - could make his odds of 25/1 look very tasty.
Thomas Bjorn is a definite threat but, at the odds, multiple winners Grace and Casey get the nod.
Best bets
2.5pts e.w. Branden Grace at 20/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
2.5pts e.w. Paul Casey at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)