NFL Week 14 predictions - do you agree?
Thursday 10 December 2015 10:35, UK
Predictions for the latest round of NFL fixtures, by Sky Sports News HQ's Richard Graves.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals - Live on Sky Sports 4, 1.25am Friday
Just four days after suffering a crushing 38-7 defeat at home to the Seahawks, the Vikings go on the road to face the 10-2 Cardinals.
Not only did the Seahawks blunt what had been the NFL's No 1 ranked rushing offence on Sunday, they completely shut down Adrian Peterson in their blowout win. Peterson was kept to just 18 yards in eight carries and now he prepares to face a Cardinals team who have allowed just one player to rush for over 100 yards against them this season.
That player was Todd Gurley on October 4 but Arizona atoned for that by shutting him down in their victory over the Rams last weekend. Gurley had just nine carries for 41 yards as the Cardinals solidified their place on top of the NFC West with a 27-3 win. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player in NFL history to reach 1,000 receptions in an offence which gains more yards than anyone else and scores more points than anyone else this season.
To win this game the Vikings will have to control the clock through their star running back Peterson but Arizona have repeatedly shown they don't allow run heavy teams such as Seattle and St Louis to dictate games against them and neither will Minnesota.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals - Live on Sky Sports 2, 5.30pm Sunday
In the build up to last weekend's game there appeared to be a little doubt over the status of Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Indianapolis will wish he hadn't played. Big Ben followed up last season's monster performance against the Colts with another last Sunday night, throwing four touchdowns in a 45-10 rout. Two of those touchdown passes went to wide receiver Antonio Brown who returned a punt for a touchdown as well. It improved their record to 7-5 and leaves them in a three-way tie for two wild card berths.
Adding more spice to this divisional rivalry is the knowledge that if the Bengals win, they'll clinch the AFC North title. They destroyed the Cleveland Browns - quarterback Andy Dalton threw two touchdown passes, both to wide receiver AJ Green in a 37-3 win. Their record now stands at 10-2.
Both of these teams have top 10 offences, both are scoring more than 25 points per game. Both have top 10 defences in points allowed - Cincinnati's is the meanest in the league, giving up fewer than 17 points per game.
The stage is set for a classic AFC North contest.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers - Live on Sky Sports 2, 9pm Sunday
The Cowboys are not a good team. Thankfully for them, the NFC East is not a good division. That's why, with a 4-8 record they find themselves just a win out of first place and very much in the play-off race. If they were to win out, they would win the division but that's a big if for a team which has won just two of their last 10 games. The reason for their demise is pretty obvious: their offence. Cowboys fans will point to losing Tony Romo to injury and DeMarco Murray to the Eagles but even so, they have been bad this season.
The Packers haven't been great themselves on offence and only gained their second win in six games thanks to an unbelievable play at the end of the game in Detroit. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, he can't complete passes if his receivers fail to get open or just flat out drop balls.
Green Bay's problems are highlighted by an offence which ranks just 22nd overall and scores 24 points per game. Their defence ranks 19th compared to the Cowboys fifth-ranked unit but importantly the Packers only give up an average of 19.8 points per game - nearly four points per game fewer than Dallas. Ultimately Green Bay are the better team.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans - Live on Sky Sports 2, 1am Monday
The Patriots have suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2012 and without first choice receiving threats Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski they struggled to move the ball consistently against the Eagles. Their replacements simply dropped too many balls and ultimately that ended hopes of an unlikely comeback from 21 points down in the fourth quarter.
The Texans four-game winning streak was ended in Buffalo.
This could become a very interest matchup if JJ Watt and co can move Tom Brady from the pocket and make him feel uncomfortable. A New England offence which still ranks third overall and second in scoring (31.3 points per game) isn't quite the same after recent injury setbacks while the Texans defence ranks seventh overall.
Pick: New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
This is the first of two meetings in three weeks for these NFC South rivals. Both started the season with 5-0 records but while the Panthers remain unbeaten and have already clinched the NFC South title, the Falcons have lost six of their last seven games and are now fighting for a wild card spot in the play-offs.
The Falcons demise has been remarkable but due in no small part to a fall off in performance from their quarterback Matt Ryan. He threw another interception in the defeat at Tampa Bay - that's now nine interceptions in his last six games!
Meanwhile if anyone still doubted Cam Newton's credentials as an NFL MVP candidate, they were silenced last weekend as he rallied his team from an early 14-0 deficit in New Orleans to win a 41-38 shoot-out, throwing five touchdowns in the process.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears
The Redskins had an opportunity to take a firm hold on the NFC East and - like the Giants 24 hours earlier - they blew it! In a dour contest against an equally poor Cowboys team Washington gave up 10 points in the final one minute 10 seconds to lose 19-16 and that means there's now a three-way tie for the division lead with Dallas just a game further back.
No doubt the Bears will have seen what the Dallas defence did as well. The Cowboys blitzed Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins all night and had plenty of success. Expect the Bears to bring more of the same this weekend.
Chicago are also coming off a disappointing loss after seeing Robbie Gould miss a field goal attempt to win the game in regulation. They then gave up a 71-yard walk off touchdown to the San Francisco 49ers in overtime. It means they now have a 5-7 record, all but ending faint hopes of winning a wild card spot in the play-offs.
The Redskins run defence is potentially the key to this game - they rank a lowly 25th, giving up 124.2 yards a game and that may well be good news for Bears running back Matt Forte. Mix into the equation the fact Washington have lost all five games on the road this year, the omens look good for Chicago.
Pick: Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
Two weeks in head coach Mike Pettine's dog house (and back-to-back defeats) seems to be enough for Cleveland Browns' quarterback Johnny Manziel. He will start this weekend when the San Francisco 49ers come to town. Whether that is enough to turn around a team which was thrashed by the Bengals last weekend remains to be seen.
In contrast the 49ers have had two strong showings and they got their reward last weekend with an overtime win in Chicago. Admittedly they road their luck - seeing a makeable Robbie Gould field goal attempt drift wide as time expired - but their defence again played tough and when the time came, Blaine Gabbert threw a perfect deep ball to find wide receiver Torrey Smith to score the walk off touchdown.
Nothing about this game suggests it will be a classic but then the lowly Titans and Jaguars had similar records before putting on a show last weekend.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts inability to protect their quarterback has already cost them the services of Andrew Luck for an extended period of time and it may now cost them backup Matt Hasselbeck after he left last weekend's heavy loss in Pittsburgh with a neck injury sustained on two separate plays. Despite that defeat, the Colts are still on top of the AFC South with a 6-6 record, tied with the Texans. The Jaguars sit a further two games back. If they are to have any chance of winning this division, this is a game they have to win.
Jacksonville's problem is they can't stop anyone from scoring. Blake Bortles threw five touchdown passes, no interceptions as the Jaguars scored 39 points and still lost to Tennessee!
If the Colts are forced to press Charlie Whitehurst into action at quarterback, the odds heavily favour the Jaguars. If Hasselbeck is good to go, his experience should be enough to see Indianapolis through.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
It was only a couple of weeks ago the Chiefs beat the Chargers comfortably in San Diego. Back at Arrowhead Stadium it's tough to foresee a scenario in which the Chargers reverse that form.
San Diego simply have too many injuries to contend with and that partly explains why they've only scored three points in two of their last three games.Admittedly, they did score 31 against Jacksonville... but that's against a team which ranks 30th in points allowed.
The Chiefs defence is only giving up 20 points per game - that's seventh best in the NFL. They rank seventh overall and are fifth with 34 sacks. A good defence is now being complimented by an efficient offence as well. Kansas City have become a potent unit, ranking fifth, scoring an average of 26.8 points per game. In that context, it's easy to see how they're now enjoying a six game winning streak.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
There hasn't been much to cheer about in Tennessee this season, so victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend was certainly cause for celebration. Not least, because it was their first win at home in 12 games! That 42-39 win marked the fourth time this season the Titans have scored 30 points or more in a game and that has yielded three wins.
This weekend they'll come up against one of the better defences in football - a defence which likely welcomes back cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Jets defence gives up 20 points per game and despite not being at their best recently, still ranks 5th overall.
The Jets have the 11th ranked scoring offence (24.6 points per game). Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick appears to be a perfect fit for them and is getting the best out of a receiving corps which features Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. With the hard running style of Chris Ivory in the backfield, the Jets would appear to have too much for a porous Tennessee defence to contain.
Pick: New York Jets
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
At first glance this match-up doesn't necessarily stand out but on closer inspection it may prove to be the game of the week! Both teams are coming off big wins. The Eagles are tied for the lead in the NFC East with a 5-7 record while the Bills have a 6-6 record and are just a game outside of the wild card spots in the AFC.
Philadelphia had a huge win in New England last weekend, thanks in the main to their Special Teams unit and their defence - between them they scored 21 of Philadelphia's 35 points. Their defence hurried and hit Tom Brady regularly and did just enough to get out of New England with a 35-28 win. Offensively they continue to struggle to find their identity though, highlighted by DeMarco Murray's final total of eight carries for just 24 yards. Crucially quarterback Sam Bradford didn't turn the ball over.
The Bills were impressive in seeing off the Houston Texans in a 30-21 win and quarterback Tyrod Taylor stood out.
On paper these two teams stack up pretty well against each other but despite Philadelphia's win in New England, it's the Bills who look the more solid unit on both sides of the ball. With Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins healthy they look a completely different side offensively and that's been shown in the last month.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams
The Lions were within one play of establishing a four-game winning streak and then gave up that 61-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to the Packers. No doubt it has been a long 10 days in Detroit. Now they go to St Louis to face a Rams side in freefall and a Rams team which fired their offensive coordinator on Monday following a heavy defeat to the Arizona Cardinals. St Louis have lost five games in a row and have the same 4-8 record as the Lions.
Rookie RB Todd Gurley's production has dried up and head coach Jeff Fisher's position is now under scrutiny. Neither Nick Foles or Case Keenum is the answer to their problems as quarterback and things are unlikely to get better when the much improved Lions come to town.
Detroit's defence, which once was the worst in the NFL, now ranks 17th and they have an opportunity to improve that record further against a Rams offence which has averaged just 15.8 points per game - only San Francisco have scored fewer points.
Pick: Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints may have parted ways with defensive coordinator Rob Ryan but the defence he has left behind continues to ship points and big free agent signing, cornerback Brandon Browner continues to concede costly penalties.
To be fair the Saints gave the unbeaten Carolina Panthers a real scare last weekend but with the game on the line, they simply couldn't stop NFL MVP candidate Cam Newton and the Panthers offence, who finished up 41-38 winners. It's difficult to see where New Orleans go from here. They're a team short on talent and they're feeling the pressure of the salary cap.
The Buccaneers know what it feels like to have to rebuild but they appear to be on an upward curve. A hard fought victory over the Atlanta Falcons improved their record to 6-6 and they're still very much in the hunt for a wild card place. Running back Doug Martin has given the Buccaneers a genuine run game, he's averaging five yards per carry and is second behind Adrian Peterson in total rushing yards this season (1,133). Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston can still be reckless with the ball but has proved himself to be more than capable of making plays. Now he has a healthy receiving corps as well with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins fit, this is a unit to be respected.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
The Raiders have shown plenty of promise this year but they're a young team still learning. That was there for all to see in last week's defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. For three quarters they matched the in form Chiefs but in the end they didn't quite have enough to see the job through. Now they must face the best defence in the NFL - a Broncos defence which expects to have linebacker DeMarcus Ware fit again for this match-up.
If the season finished today the Denver Broncos would hold the No 2 seed in the AFC. Backup quarterback Brock Osweiler has now won three games in a row and questions are being asked about Peyton Manning's position even when he is fully fit again.
Denver's defence has been stellar all season. When these two sides met earlier this year, it was this unit which won the game for the Broncos by returning an interception for a touchdown. They rank No 1 overall, second in points allowed (17.5 per game) and lead the league in sacks (41).
Pick: Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens
Just when people were beginning to write them off, the Seahawks come roaring back and remind everyone they are contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.
Quarterback Russell Wilson has been outstanding in the last two weeks and he ran the game last weekend as he rushed for a touchdown and threw another three, two of them to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Defensively, the Seahawks shut down the NFL's leading rusher Adrian Peterson and, although the Arizona Cardinals are clear at the top of the NFC West, no one will want to face Seattle in this form.
The Ravens are counting down the weeks until the end of the season. Battered and ravaged by injuries, they fought bravely in Miami but ultimately came up twp points short. Quarterback Matt Schaub extended an unwanted record as he threw a Pick Six for a fifth successive game - a game in which Baltimore could only muster 13 total points. The prospect of facing Seattle is not a pleasant one.
The Seahawks defence is stepping it up. They're now ranked No 2 overall. They are third in points allowed (19.1 per game) and have 31 sacks on the season. Everything points to it being a tough day at the office for the Ravens.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins - Live on Sky Sports 1, 1am Tuesday
Miami aren't mathematically out of the play-off picture but realistically, with a 5-7 record they're not going to get into it. That being said last week's coaching changes and the win over Baltimore suggests they are still playing to win and a renewed emphasis on running the ball could spell trouble for the Giants.
The G-Men let another game in which they held a fourth quarter lead get away from them. That overtime defeat to the Jets means they are in the thick of the mess that is the NFC East with a 5-7 record. Quarterback Eli Manning has to lead his team from the front if they are going to win the division. Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr aside, the Giants are a team short on playmakers. Defensively, only Atlanta have recorded fewer than the Giants 15 sacks. They've also had problems stopping the run, giving up an average of 108.8 yards per game and if the Dolphins can get Lamar Miller going, the Giants will be in for a long day.
However, Miami have had their own problems stopping the run, in fact only Cleveland and New Orleans have worse records. It's an area New York know will open up their passing game if they can take advantage. The problem is, it's not their strength this year - an average of 88.1 rushing yards per game means they are the fourth worst running team in the NFL.
Ultimately this game comes down to who can impose their will on the opposition and perhaps, who wants this game more.
Pick: New York Giants
