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Luck of the draw

Image: Luck has taken the NFL by storm

US-based Simon Veness says Draft mania over Andrew Luck is already in full cry across the pond.

Simon Veness on NFL sensation Andrew Luck

It didn't take long. To be honest, there have been rumbles from the get-go. But here, after Week Eight, the 'Suck for Luck' campaign is running free, unfettered, in full gallop. It may take some explaining, but with two teams still to break into the 'W' column and another pair who barely register, it was inevitable. Just think of that for a moment. The NFL's Far From Fab Four are a combined 2-27, a sequence of senselessness that is hard to believe in these days of parity, when last season's patsies should be this year's contenders. But try telling that to Miami, St Louis and Arizona, none of whom managed a winning record in 2010 and, on the evidence of 2011 so far, will struggle to make any impression for the next decade or so. And then there's the indescribable horror that is Indianapolis. Shorn of talisman Peyton Manning, they are like Superman in the grip of Kryptonite, Samson without his locks, Wolverine de-clawed. Given their first chance to stage a Super Bowl, the Colts have taken a run at the Toilet Bowl - to the extent that Sky presenter Neil Reynolds and studio guest David Tuckman had a healthy 'debate' on whether or not head coach Jim Caldwell deserves the old heave-ho. The rights and wrongs of firing a coach after just half the season notwithstanding, it is a pretty sorry quartet of gridiron futility that props up the AFC East and South and the NFC West. And it has opened the door to Draft speculation like never before. Which is where the Luck of the draw comes in. Andrew Luck is, of course, the all-conquering Stanford University quarterback, who was runner-up in the 2010 Heisman Trophy voting and currently a shoo-in to go one better in college football's annual MVP award this year. He has led the Cardinal to a 29-5 record in the past three seasons, thrown 68 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions in those 34 games and has a quarterback rating of 163.5. If he was any hotter right now, he would be burning a hole to the earth's core. And one Luck-y team is going to earn the right to select the Stanford ace with the top pick in April's Draft (by earn, of course, I mean stumble to the end of the season with the kind of record that makes casual followers say: "They lost how many games?"). And with four fully-fledged, big-time serial losers at the nominal half-way point, it is the kind of anti-race that has pundits in full-scale speculation mode, along with fans all desperately hoping that their team will be the one so bad that they will "suck for Luck" (you see, you knew it would make sense in the end).

Well-grounded

Luck is already seen as the next Peyton Manning, a sure-thing selection for the team with No. 1 on their Radio City Music Hall docket next April. In fact, he is a combination of Manning and John Elway, having broken Elway's old Stanford record for most TDs in a season last term (32 in just 13 games, beating the ex-Denver great by five) and is on course to obliterate just about every QB record going this time out. He already has 23 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions in his eight games (all Cardinal wins); his completion percentage is a heady 71.9 per cent; and his quarterback rating a monstrous 176.9. And he is a modest, well-grounded and totally likeable specimen with no discernible "down-side," as the talking heads like to say. His father is Oliver Luck, who World League fans may remember as President from 1995-2000, and a pretty good quarterback himself back in the day for the Houston Oilers. Hence, like the Manning boys, Andrew comes from a solid footballing background with few misconceptions about what a pro future holds for him. In short, he is a 6ft 4in, solid gold lottery ticket at the top of the Draft, just waiting to make some seriously awful team better. And the media have officially gone into overdrive trying to predict where he will end up. Miami and Indy currently top the list, of course, with that big, fat zero in the all-important win column. And, already, many are willing to do their clairvoyant act and work out which one is most likely to go 0-16 and 'win' the race (this week's odds firmly on the Colts, as they have a one-losing-game edge, but the Dolphins' schedule is rated much tougher for their final nine games). Plenty of pundits are willing to speculate that at least one of this duo could finish 1-15, while my feeling is Indianapolis will be lucky if they stay at '0' right now.
Comfortably handled
Their performance (or, rather, the complete lack of one) against New Orleans two weeks ago was borderline laughable, while last Sunday's 17-point egg-laying at Tennessee was just as bad. Right now, even their bye week on 20 November looks a bit of a challenge. The 0-7 Dolphins have at least played Cleveland, Denver and the Giants pretty close (a combined seven-point losing margin for that trio). But, more ominously, they were comfortably handled by New England, Houston, San Diego and the Jets in their other four, which really bodes rather badly for trips to Kansas City and Dallas, two face-offs with Buffalo and re-matches with the Patriots and Jets. A home game with increasingly lifeless Washington offers some hope, but the phrase including "straws" and "clutching" does spring to mind here. As the weeks go by and just the numbers in the 'L' column change, the pressure on these teams to not win will only increase. And let's not forget the two 1-6 merchants, St Louis and Arizona, even though they are currently in completely different mind-sets thanks to the Rams' "Where-on-earth-did-that-come-from" outing against New Orleans and the Cardinals' total collapse at Baltimore. Both teams have demonstrated a perfect willingness to be doormats for much of the time (they rank 20th and 28th on offence, and 27th and 30th on the other side of the ball) and their only saving grace would appear to be that they actually still have to play each other twice - although, even then, the smart Alecs among the US punditry are wondering if they could be the first two teams to tie both games in a season. That's also before you bear in mind the five teams who are all either 2-5 or 2-6, several of whom you can see struggling to add to that '2' figure anytime soon (yes, Denver, Seattle and Jacksonville, I'm looking at you). All in all it makes for a catalogue of calamity, the like of which is hard to call to mind for any equal in recent years. Yes, we have seen some bad teams, some true turkeys; but nine teams that look like they'd struggle to compete in the UFL right now? I think not. So, while you're busy watching the Jets and Bills and then the Packers and Chargers this Sunday fighting to get to the top of their division, spare a thought for the fans of Miami, Indy and Co, who will all be hoping their team is the one that truly Sucks for Luck. Or perhaps they won't. After all, a 2-14 season could be seen as quite a triumph this year.