World champions prepare to return to the scene of their 2015 humbling as Red Bull and Ferrari eye captilising on a rare weakness
Monday 19 September 2016 14:33, UK
Mercedes have conceded they are not the favourites to win this weekend's Singapore GP despite the world champions triumphing in all-but one race this season.
Although the Silver Arrows were over half a second quicker than their rivals two weeks ago at Monza, the competitive order is expected to be transformed in Singapore - the scene of Mercedes' humbling 12 months ago when the world champions were enjoying an equally-dominant campaign.
"Ferrari and Red Bull will be on it I'm sure, so we've got a big fight on our hands if we are up at the front," says Lewis Hamilton ahead of what may prove a pivotal week in the title race.
After consecutive victories for Nico Rosberg, Hamilton's championship lead has been cut to just two points. Now he faces the challenge of what will surely be Mercedes' toughest race of the year.
While Monza was tailor-made for Mercedes, Singapore fits Red Bull - who beat Mercedes to pole at Monaco, another street circuit, in May - like a glove. The relative weakness of their Renault engine is nullified by Singapore's endless suite of corners and the chassis strength of the RB12. "This should be fun," says Red Bull driver Daniel Ricciardo.
It should also be the most unpredictable weekend of the year.
What happened to Mercedes a year ago?
Mercedes' Singapore slump was one of the mysteries of 2015 and defied straightforward explanation.
Although the circuit, consisting of 23 corners and barely any straights, does not suit their package, built on the firm foundations of the strongest engine in F1, Hamilton won there in 2014 from pole position.
But a year ago Mercedes suffered a catastrophic slump in performance at the Marina Bay Circuit and fell behind both Red Bull and Ferrari.
"I've gone full-circle on set-up, I started with something, went all the way round and went back to what I started with," complained a bemused Rosberg after being out-paced by 1.8 seconds in qualifying by Sebastian Vettel. Hamilton was fractionally quicker but still 1.5 seconds adrift of Vettel.
It was the first time a Mercedes-powered car had failed to take pole in 31 events and the works outfit fared equally modestly on race day. Finishing fourth, Rosberg was beaten to the chequered flag by half a minute as Vettel secured his third victory of 2015 while Hamilton retired from outside of the podium positions.
"We were miles off," Rosberg recalled following last week's Italian GP. "It was our most difficult race ever - well, in the last few years. 1.8 seconds is huge. We can't go there with too much confidence. This is going to be a challenging weekend. We think we have made progress but 1.8 seconds is not going to be easy."
Why were Mercedes so weak in Singapore?
The critical question ahead of this weekend's return trip is whether Mercedes' Singapore misery a year ago was weekend specific or track specific.
While their rivals will hope it is the latter, the world champions seemed sure last September that they had been caught out by the punitive restrictions on tyre pressures imposed by Pirelli following Vettel's Spa blow-out the month before.
When is the Singapore GP on Sky Sports?
"I don't believe that somebody found a second-and-a-half from one weekend to the other. It's the tyre," argued Toto Wolff at the time.
But Rosberg referred to Singapore this week as "a Red Bull track" and Wolff himself added: "Ferrari were mighty around this circuit last year and it will suit the high downforce design philosophy followed by Red Bull. We must not make the mistake of thinking we are favourites this weekend."
Curiously, Mercedes' anticipated struggle to stay ahead of Ferrari and Red Bull may suit Hamilton. The Englishman received scant reward for his half-second thrashing of Rosberg in qualifying at Monza with Mercedes so far out in front that Rosberg was still able to line up alongside his team-mate on the front row and then take the lead when Hamilton faltered off the line.
But if the battle at the front were to be multi-faceted and Mercedes merely part of the pack, any advantage for Hamilton in qualifying could reap a critical advantage in starting positions over his team-mate and sole title rival.
"If Ferrari are closer and more competitive then that might be not such a bad thing," mused Hamilton in Monza. "There's the possibility of putting more spaces between us but Nico would say the same thing. But we also want to win every race as a one-two!"
Have Mercedes found the answer for Singapore?
Mercedes are hopeful they have solutions in place to be more competitive at Singapore this year. But that's hopeful, not confident.
The most logical explanation for their 2015 slump is that after failing to find the right operating window for the 'peaky' Pirelli tyres the problem escalated, domino-style, into a perfect storm of fast-degrading rubber, inefficient car set-ups and, consequently, poor lap times.
"This was not a good race for us last year and a lot of work has been done during the intervening 12 months to understand why that was," says technical boss Paddy Lowe. "Of course, we haven't been able to test on the circuit, so all of our theories are just theories at this stage."
Tyre strategy will, as ever, be critical. This year's curveball is that the teams have to make their tyre selections on a race-by-race basis several months in advance. The selections for Singapore were revealed on Thursday and disclosed that Ferrari had gone bold by requesting nine sets of ultrasofts while both Mercedes and Red Bull have taken seven. Last year's race was a two-stopper run on supersofts and softs, both of which will be used again this weekend, so the varied introduction of the ultrasofts mean it's conceivable Sunday's grand prix will be a two-stopper for some teams and a three-stopper for others.
Either way, Mercedes' status as favourites is in genuine doubt. Earlier this year at Monaco, the circuit which is closest in style to Singapore, Hamilton won a race which Ricciardo ought to have won as Red Bull boasted a clear pace advantage. Singapore is unlikely to be any easier for the world champions.
