With Honda still struggling, the tie-up may sound unlikely. But it could yet make sense for all concerned - including McLaren, Renault, Red Bull, Fernando Alonso and Formula 1...
Saturday 30 September 2017 09:13, UK
Although both Toro Rosso and Honda denied last week that 'official' talks had taken place over a tie-up, it's thought that a deal which would see Red Bull's junior team switch to McLaren's current supplier is imminent.
Any such arrangement - still not certain, still not confirmed - will strike many as strange. Honda have endured a wretched struggle since their return to F1 with McLaren and their power units are not only the least reliable of any in F1 but also the weakest.
But delve a little deeper and the potential Toro Rosso-Honda deal may be the ultimate win-win for all concerned.
What's in it for…
Formula 1
Losing Honda, the most recent engine manufacturer to join the sport, would be a public relations and sporting disaster for Formula 1. But with McLaren seemingly intent on divorcing their engine partners at the end of the season in a bid to return to respectability in 2018, an ignominious departure for Honda is still a very real possibility.
"We want to see all these manufacturers stay in the sport, [but] right now we need to do what's in the best interest of McLaren," team boss Zak Brown told Sky Sports News at Monza.
With the proposed Sauber-Honda deal collapsing two months ago, partly because of Sauber's concerns about McLaren supplying gearboxes for a Honda engine they wouldn't run, F1's new bosses would welcome a Toro Rosso-Honda partnership, guaranteeing Honda's ongoing commitment to the sport, with open arms.
Honda
So the hard graft and heavy pain of the last three years may still prove worth it after all.
The Toro Rosso deal would provide Honda with a guarantee they will stay in F1 and relief they can seek a solution for their struggles out of the demanding McLaren-Alonso spotlight. The quiet life may suit them.
Toro Rosso
Taking on the worst engine in F1 is not, admittedly, an obvious desirable choice.
But a Honda deal - especially if the engine supply is exclusive - would offer Toro Rosso the chance to grow outside of the Red Bull umbrella with the potential of becoming a full works team if Honda seek a future buy-out. Even a short-term exclusive engine supply would at least enable Toro Rosso to be a team in their own right rather than merely operate as Red Bull's 'B team'.
Nor do Toro Rosso have much to lose. Although currently sixth in the Constructors' Championship, they are only six points ahead of eighth-placed Renault. Having effectively only previously existed as a finishing school for the next generation of Red Bull drivers, the team now have a clear route to growth.
Red Bull
Any deal between Toro Rosso and Honda would ultimately have to be rubber-stamped by the team's owners at Red Bull. But from their perspective the advantage of a Honda deal is clear-cut: in the event of Honda getting their act together, Red Bull could then simply switch over to Honda engines and assume a works deal they will never be able to achieve with Renault.
McLaren
Not only could the fallen superpowers divorce Honda without opposition from F1's bosses and owners in the wake of a Toro Rosso-Honda deal, but they can replace Toro Rosso on the Renault engine roster and expect to hold on to their prized asset, Alonso, too.
The critical mitigation of a Renault deal is that it would effectively see McLaren give up on their ambition of becoming world champions again - or at least until F1's next 'refresh' for 2021. "We can't afford not to be on the podium," said Brown on Friday night following talks with Renault. Note 'podium'.
The team are thought to be confident they can challenge for third place in the Constructors' Championship next year with a Renault engine supply and can assume a holding position until F1's next major overhaul three seasons later.
Renault
Having backed away from a McLaren tie-up when presented with a scenario in which the Woking outfit would have been the fourth team powered by Renault engines, swapping Toro Rosso for Honda would see the Renault portfolio swap one of the sport's smallest outfits for the second-most team successful in F1 history. Either through their own works team, Red Bull or McLaren, the Renault portfolio would expect wins in 2018.
Fernando Alonso
Both Alonso and McLaren have been at pains this weekend to deny that a 'Honda or I'm off' ultimatum has been given to the team. But there's been no denial that Alonso's faith in Honda has evaporated and, for all the shortcomings of the Renault engine, which is still believed to lag far behind those of Ferrari and Mercedes, a change of engine supply of any kind is likely to be sufficient to keep Alonso on board.
With his options dwindling, McLaren-Renault is, realistically, the very best he can currently hope for.
Carlos Sainz
The young Spaniard has made no secret of his determination to move up the F1 grid and he would no doubt be sweet on any deal that would see him effectively be a 'sweetener' to persuade Renault to give up their engine deal with Toro Rosso and swap to Renault instead. A Sainz-Nico Hulkenberg partnership would furnish the Renault works team with one of the best driver line-ups on the grid and give Sainz the stage he craves to display his full potential.
