Talking points for the Belgian GP

What Spa treatment awaits the title race

Here they go again. But if a sense of routine has fallen over Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg’s encounters, this weekend’s next installment of the world championship carries the extra resonance of recent and past history. After failing in Hungary to score a podium between them - the first time in F1’s new turbo era that such an indignity has befallen Mercedes - both drivers will be striving to make amends at Spa; and after that collision a year ago, when Rosberg punctured Hamilton on the track only for his Mercedes team-mate to subsequently turn the tables on the German off it, both have extra motivation to best the other in Belgium.

Viewed in hindsight, Spa hosted the turning point of the 2014 title race, just not in the way originally foreseen. No matter that the net impact of Rosberg’s unpunished mistake after he punted Silver Arrows into Silver Arrows was a 29-point lead in the championship; it was actually Hamilton’s successful destabilisation of his rival, via the incendiary claim Rosberg had admitted to crashing on purpose, which ultimately proved pivotal. Hamilton was able to recover; Rosberg never did. 

A year on and their roles – and positions are reversed. Just as it is Hamilton rather than Rosberg who boasts a substantial lead – 21 points – in the standings, it is Rosberg rather than Hamilton who is perennially stuck on the back foot after losing out in qualifying and struggling to spot a way back into the race.

For a fleeting moment in Hungary, it appeared as if Rosberg was set to sneak into the lead of the world championship only for the respective fortunes of the Mercedes drivers to suddenly fluctuate again. Was that, like Spa 2014, a turning point turned on itself again? As F1 reconvenes in the Ardennes, the sense persists that we are approaching a crux in this year’s title battle.

It may not be as dramatic as last year’s derailment in Belgium, but it could prove equally decisive. Either Rosberg starts on a Hamilton-esque recovery charge or, already approaching an advantage equivalent of a full race win with just nine still to run, Hamilton’s journey towards a third title will soon threaten to become processional. PG

But can Sebastian Vettel make it a three-way fight?

For a sport that’s often accused of being predictable, F1 has witnessed something of an about turn this season as far as perceptions of Sebastian Vettel go. Two years ago, as the then Red Bull driver was making his inexorable march to a fourth straight world title, race victories came increasingly hand-in-hand with brickbats from fans at the track and on social media.

Yes, there were obvious reasons for that – the Multi-21 controversy of Malaysia 2013 being the main culprit – but it’s always easier to take pot shots at serial winners and Vettel was certainly racking up the records like there was no tomorrow back in the days before turbo engines - and Mercedes - rewrote the F1 landscape.

But having since gone through a chastening final season at Red Bull, Vettel’s move to Ferrari and his revitalisation as the ‘Seb of old’ has done wonders for his image. He may not have changed personally, but the transition from hunted to hunter means he’s actually been credited with making F1 2015 more competitive – and therefore interesting – than it might otherwise have been.

That kudos could yet increase if the 42 points Vettel trailed title leader Hamilton by at the summer break following the German’s impressive second win of the year in Hungary continues to erode over the season’s final nine races. His deficit remains a large one – it’s the equivalent of a race victory and a second-place finish after all – and for all of the criticism that came the way of Mercedes and their drivers after that unusually scruffy Budapest performance, Hamilton’s weekend-long pace in clean air would almost certainly have been enough to win the race comfortably had the W06 not stumbled again at the lights.

Yet, for all that, the Scuderia and their new star driver remain the grid’s coming force and Vettel, in the words of Sky F1’s Damon Hill, is the ‘Great White Shark of the grid’. Mercedes know that only too well themselves: any more slip-ups and the four-time champion will be ready and waiting to bite. JG

What sort of a difference will Honda’s upgrades make?

Credit Yasuhisa Arai for his optimism: despite the worst start to a season in McLaren’s history, Honda’s motorsport chief still refuses to rule out a podium finish before the end of the year, although he was also predicting podiums – for around about now - back at the start of the season. Of course, they’ve been nowhere near the podium so far and while Hungary’s double-points finish was a step in the right direction, the result owed as much to the thrills and, in particular, the spills elsewhere as it did their own performance.

But Arai isn’t stopping there. With reliability improved, he now says that Honda hope to match Ferrari for power starting at this weekend’s Belgian GP – quite some prediction when you consider that the shortfall has, so far, been in the region of 100bhp. If he’s right this time, then that’ll also be quite some difference in oomph Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button will feel heading up the Kemmel Straight.

Of course, what it means in terms of results remains to be seen. Arai might have the habit of talking big but McLaren’s side of the operation has been much more reticent, with the drivers basically saying that results aren’t really the point anymore this season. Factor in the inevitability of grid penalties and you start to understand their point of view, although another double-points finish – without the mitigating factors this time - would certainly offer evidence that the changes are working.

And boy do they need it. Time was – before testing restrictions and the concept of engine ‘tokens’ – that Honda would have made their engine fast and reliable simply by strapping it into a test mule and running it into the ground in Japan, away from prying eyes, where there’s no need for the driver to push his car back to the pits while waving to the crowd. Instead they must keep chipping away in public, with races doubling up as tests and every slip-up and hiccup seen and heard by an audience of millions. “We knew it wouldn’t be easy, but perhaps we didn’t imagine that it would be this hard,” added Arai, bang on the money this time. MW

Red Bull shuffled back down the order again?

That’s the assumption everyone seems to be making, not least the team themselves. “The next two races will be very challenging for us and Singapore will be our next opportunity to shine,” said Christian Horner after the Hungarian GP, where Daniil Kvyat and Daniel Ricciardo earned just their third double podium finish since the glory days of 2013.

While history suggests that Spa might not be as big a challenge as Horner suggests – Red Bull have won three of the last four Belgian GPs, after all – and the RB11 has been improved aerodynamically of late, they remain hamstrung by a power unit that’s arguably further behind its rivals now than it’s ever been, in terms of power, reliability, Uncle Tom Cobley and all.

With Ricciardo currently racing between a rock (he’s on his fifth power unit of the season) and a hard place (with Renault not introducing a major upgrade until Russia, he has to try and make it last, although Red Bull might take penalties in Italy so they have fresher engines for Singapore) the odds have to be firmly against him repeating his win 12 months ago. For Kvyat, meanwhile, there’s the motivation of further burnishing his reputation after a difficult start to the season. But for the team as a whole, it seems that expectations must necessarily take a turn for the worse again, both at Spa and Monza. MW

Vital Valtteri bounces back

Following a run of difficult results, Valtteri Bottas' stock as the hottest property in F1 has somewhat diminished. After all, only a couple of races ago he was being hotly tipped to replace Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari, but suddenly he finds himself getting beaten by the man deemed surplus to requirements at the Scuderia and replaced by Raikkonen.

Felipe Massa leads the intra-team qualifying battle at Williams 6-4 this season, while the Brazilian has finished ahead of his team-mate in each of the last four races. 

Perhaps the Finn could have taken the fight for victory to Mercedes at Silverstone had it not been for team orders, but the fact remains he was behind Massa on track and not quick enough to pass without assistance from the pit-wall.

At a venue where he finished on the podium last year, it is vital that Bottas regains the upper hand at Williams having had the chance to regroup over the summer break. The Finn has never been beaten by an F1 team-mate at Spa-Francorchamps, a record he needs to continue this weekend. WE