When will Hamilton's luck turn? Williams finally fight back, McLaren flatter to deceive with another Q3 failure, and...
Thursday 19 May 2016 11:44, UK
When will Lewis Hamilton's luck turn?
A whole host of theories have been put forward as to why Lewis Hamilton's season has started in such a downward spiral. Whether it's changes in key Mercedes personnel, Nico Rosberg's brilliance or even the world champion simply taking his eye off the ball, the Englishman's woes have spiced up the 2016 campaign.
But surely, after his most recent mechanical issue, it's time to acknowledge that this is one of the unluckiest starts to a Formula 1 title defence the sport has ever seen.
Hamilton was flying in Practice Two and Practice Three and traded blows with Rosberg in the early part of qualifying. It was only at the end of Q2 that he realised his quest to close the 36-point gap to his team-mate was quickly turning into another nightmare.
"I lost the same power as I lost in China," Hamilton told Sky F1 after learning of his engine failure. "There was nothing I could do."
Even Toto Wolff conceded that Hamilton's problems were "bizarre" and that Rosberg was having "all the luck" at the other end of the garage.
Rosberg, who has enjoyed a trouble-free 2016 thus far, must of course be given credit, and his 1:35.417 may well have been enough to grab pole position, even if Hamilton was still running. But despite making an error on his final flying lap, Nico has been presented with another open goal.
"The others today have been extremely unfortunate," the championship leader admitted. "So that makes my race a little bit easier tomorrow."
'A little' may be a big understatement.
Mercedes opening the gap from Ferrari
Ferrari were troubled by reliability concerns of their own on Saturday but after a start to the campaign which hadn't completely ruled them out of fighting for the constructors' title, Mercedes' dominance in Sochi qualifying was unparalleled in 2016. They're further ahead than ever.
Rosberg finished the session 0.7seconds up the road from Sebastian Vettel and even further ahead of Kimi Raikkonen while Ferrari's race pace doesn't appear to be strong enough to worry the Silver Arrows this weekend.
Mercedes have talked up the Scuderia's chances this season but even the usually restrained Rosberg is confident that a gap is emerging.
"Here, it looks like they are not very close," he said. "We've been saying all this time over the last few weeks that they are very close, very close... maybe we need to stop saying that for now, because this weekend is looking very, very strong from our side. We look to have opened the gap."
Ferrari will just hope it's track-specific...
Williams fight back ahead of Red Bull
After two seasons as Formula 1's third fastest team, Red Bull's impressive start to the season threatened Williams in a way neither outfit had expected before the start of the season. But on Saturday, the pendulum well and truly swung back in the Grove team's favour.
The high-powered, open Sochi track certainly suits the Mercedes power unit and Valtteri Bottas delivered once again around the former Winter Olympics venue. He qualified in third in 2014 and 2015 and, thanks to Vettel's grid penalty, now finds himself on the front row.
The pressure was on, not only to get the better of Red Bull but Kimi Raikkonen too, and the Finn delivered with a 1:36.536 - a tenth faster than his countryman, and more than half a second quicker than Daniel Ricciardo.
"That's more like it," a delighted Bottas said to his team after the session.
With Felipe Massa starting the race in fourth, Williams can finally set their sights on scoring significant points, rather than watching over their shoulder to stay in the top 10. Their main challenge may come from Ricciardo, whose handling of tyre wear has been impressive, or a rampaging Vettel or Hamilton from further back.
We can also expect more fireworks from Raikkonen and Bottas after their final-lap collision last year.
Armed with a new wing and nose, Williams are on the march again.
McLaren flattering to deceive
So near, yet so far for Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso.
Q3 may well be a realistic target for 2016's MP4-31 but McLaren are still being denied a spot in the final 10-minute shootout. A tenth of a second was the difference between Button and P10 this time around.
Improvement? Yes. Good enough for McLaren? Not a chance.
However, pessimists and those who expect so much more from such a glamorous name in F1 must remember that Button has managed third during practice this season, while the team's performances during Q1 have also been encouraging.
Button finished the first qualifying session seventh, ninth and fourth in Australia, Bahrain and China. Alonso was eighth, ahead of a raft of eventual Q3-qualifiers at the Sochi Autodrom. It seems McLaren are just not able to turn their engine up as much as their midfield rivals when it matters most.
"We've been a little bit cautious, maybe too cautious," Button admitted.
With a Sunday of long straights and fuel-saving to come, their weekend may not get much better.
