Thursday 29 October 2015 08:51, UK
Sky Sports expert Richard Graves makes his predictions ahead of another exciting round of NFL games in Week 8.
The Kansas City Chiefs are preparing for a Wembley showdown with the Detroit Lions, while during a packed US schedule, two of the NFL's unbeaten teams will meet when the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers.
Byes: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington
October 29
A few weeks ago this match up would have raised little interest but since interim head coach Dan Campbell took over in Miami, the Dolphins have been good. A comfortable win in Tennessee is one thing but their demolition of the Houston Texans made everyone take notice.
Running back Lamar Miller was outstanding, running for 175 yards on just 14 carries. He finished the day with two touchdowns while the Dolphins became the first team since 1940 to score four TDs of 50 yards or more in a half.
This week's opponents, the New England Patriots, know all about scoring. They lead the league with an average of 35.5 points per game. They proved last weekend they can win games tough as well, rallying in the fourth quarter to preserve their unbeaten record, winning 30-23 over the New York Jets. The Jets defence had entered the game, conceding just 15 points per game. New England scored 14 in the final quarter.
Miami have scored 82 points in their previous two games and their defence has recorded 10 sacks (previously they'd only managed one all season). As the Patriots proved last Sunday though, they just keep finding a way to win. Since 2002, Tom Brady has a perfect 8-0 record when playing on a Thursday night and although Miami QB Ryan Tannehill can rightly point to a 2-1 record in his last three games against New England, he won't be improving it in Foxborough.
Pick: New England Patriots
November 1
The numbers don't make for good reading in Detroit. They have the worst rushing offence, averaging just 68 yards per game. They're 29th in scoring offence (19.9 points per game) and the 20th ranked overall offence. Their 1-6 record is the worst in football, following a season in which they made the play-offs. Well, just hours before they flew to London, those statistics prompted change.
The offensive coordinator, the offensive line coordinator and his assistant were all fired and didn't make the trip. Jim Bob Cooter is promoted to be the team's new OC and initial reports suggest he has been instructed to be more aggressive with his play calling than predecessor Joe Lombardi. That means being prepared to let wide receiver Calvin Johnson go and get the ball and taking some shots down field.
Taking shots down field is something the Kansas City Chiefs aren't in the habit of doing - especially without their leading wide receiver Jeremy Maclin who missed last weekend's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers but that made no difference to the Chiefs who leaned on inexperienced running back Charcandrick West. He finished with 110 rushing yards and a touchdown in a game where the Chiefs defence snatched two interceptions and recovered a Landry Jones fumble.
It's been a real head-scratcher this season why the Lions haven't been better. Giving up over 28 points per game has certainly put an enormous amount of pressure on their offence but the Chiefs are struggling to put points on the board in the absence of Jamaal Charles. A shake up behind the scenes maybe the catalyst to ignite a talented Lions unit. Twelve months ago Detroit got a dramatic win at Wembley... on Sunday they'll do it again!
Pick: Detroit Lions
The Bengals have had a bye week while the Steelers were down to their third string quarterback in the defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that Ben Roethlisberger is expected to resume a normal practice schedule this week and return on Sunday. The bad news is the Bengals are 6-0, already with a two-game lead in the AFC North and looking to pick up where they left off.
The impending return of Big Ben is good news for wide receiver Antonio Brown who, last weekend aside, has been relatively quiet since the Steelers quarterback got injured. Pittsburgh's defence has also been active, they've got 19 sacks this season and have a +3 turnover differential.
The problem is Cincinnati are as good or better in most areas. They also have a +3 turnover differential. They have 17 sacks, having played a game less than Pittsburgh. The Bengals are third in scoring offence and score around eight points per game more than the Steelers.
Even though this game is being played in Pittsburgh and they're likely to get their starting quarterback back, the Bengals have had an extra week to prepare and no one, as yet, has been able to beat them.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers appeared to be heading for a second straight win against the Washington Redskins but fell apart after blowing a 24-0 second-quarter lead to slip to the foot of the NFC South with a 2-4 record. Quarterback Jameis Winston is expected to experience high and low points in his rookie year but the Buccaneers defence was never expected to be this bad. They are the worst scoring defence in the NFL, giving up an average of 29.8 points per game. No team is going to win many games conceding at that rate!
The Falcons offence has been explosive this year, ranking fourth in scoring offence (27.6 points per game). Last weekend though just 10 points were enough as they ground out a 10-7 win in Tennessee. RB Devonta Freeman recorded a 3rd straight 100+ rushing yard game and although wide receiver Julio Jones was limited to 92 receiving yards, he scored the touchdown which ultimately won the game. The slight concern for Atlanta is that quarterback Matt Ryan has turned the ball over in three successive games. Last weekend he threw two more interceptions against Tennessee. That being said, it's tough to see a scenario where the Buccaneers win in the Falcons' back yard and against this leaky Tampa Bay defence, Julio Jones may just wake from his recent slumber!
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Prior to the start of the season this fixture may have been one of those that whetted the appetite but no one anticipated these two teams would go into their Week 8 matchup with just three wins combined!
Both teams will point to a crippling injury list, robbing them of key players but the truth of the matter is, defensively, neither have been up to the mark. The Ravens are giving up nearly 27 points per game and opponents are terrorising their secondary. Baltimore ranks 28th in passing defence, giving up 283 yards per game.
San Diego's problem is they can't stop the run, giving up 132.1 yards per game. Only Cleveland are worse this season and the Chargers rank 27th in scoring defence, conceding more than 28 points per game.
The game plan appears simple. For Baltimore, running back Justin Forsett need to run the ball hard and often while Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers needs some healthy receivers to take advantage of that Ravens secondary.
Both teams go into this encounter on the back of three straight defeats but following their spirited effort in Arizona on Monday night, the Ravens may be primed to snap their streak.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Minnesota Vikings have quietly moved into contention in the NFC. The undefeated Green Bay Packers garner many of the headlines in the NFC North but this young Vikings team have flown under the radar on the way to a 4-2 record - and now they have a new weapon. While everyone knows what to expect from running back Adrian Peterson, rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs has begun making plays. A sensational touchdown grab highlighted a six-catch, 108-yard day in Detroit as the Vikings rallied to a come from behind, 28-19 win on the road.
The Chicago Bears last game was an overtime defeat on the road two weeks ago.....in Detroit. They've had a bye week to reflect on that defeat - an extra week to allow both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and quarterback Jay Cutler to get healthy. The hope is that can help fire an offence which ranks just 28th in scoring (20 points per game) and it needs to if Chicago are to be competitive. Defensively, they're as bad as Tampa Bay, giving up nearly 30 points per game!
Minnesota have hardly been prolific themselves - in fact they are only fractionally scoring more points than Chicago but they are able to control the ball in the hands of Adrian Peterson and are a better defensive team than the Bears. If the Vikings can get the win in the Windy City, it's time to believe they are the real deal.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Cardinals had a Patrick Peterson interception in his own end zone in the dying seconds to thank for ensuring they bounced back to winning ways against Baltimore last Monday night. This weekend's trip to Cleveland would again appear to be a favourable match up.
The Browns have the worst rushing defence in the NFL - they give up 151 yards per game on the ground alone! For Arizona's resurgent running back Chris Johnson this is a game he should be relishing. Johnson is second only to Devonta Freeman with 567 rushing yards this season.
Cleveland's defence may only just have recovered from their encounter with the St Louis Rams and Todd Gurley. Gurley spent last Sunday literally running over Browns' defenders and breaking tackles on his way to two touchdowns and a 128 -yard rushing day. Cleveland were kept out of the end zone and their record slipped to 2-5.
Cleveland are giving up 26 points per game with a defence that ranks 28th overall. Arizona have the NFL's second ranked scoring offence (33.8 points per game) and it'll prove to be too much for the Browns to handle.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
As poor as these two teams have been this year, the lack of quality in the AFC South means both of these franchises are still involved in the play-off race. The Titans fought hard without rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota last weekend but ultimately came up short in a 10-7 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. That loss was their fifth in a row and their ninth straight defeat at home so a road game may be welcome. That being said, there's no guarantee Mariota will be fit as he struggles to overcome an MCL sprain.
A week after beating the Jaguars, the Texans imploded in the opening half against Miami. Trailing 41-0 at half-time, running back Lamar Miller gashed them on the ground for 175 yards while quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw four touchdowns. Houston's defence, the supposed strength of this franchise, is anything but. Giving up an average of 28.4 points per game, they are ranked 28th in the NFL. To make matters worse, star running back Arian Foster is out for the year after injuring his Achilles' tendon. It certainly doesn't inspire confidence but both of Houston's wins this season have come against poor teams (Buccaneers and Jaguars). Without Mariota at quarterback, the Titans fall into that category. Even so, Foster's loss is significant and perhaps too much for the ailing Texans to overcome.
Pick: Tennessee Titans
The New York Giants got a BIG win over NFC East rivals the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and it is a win which leaves them clear in first place in their division. However it would be unwise to say they were convincing last weekend and a trip to New Orleans is a tricky proposition.
The Saints also got a huge win last weekend - going into Indianapolis and holding off a late rally to improve to 3-4. While there appears little chance they'll catch the undefeated Panthers in the NFC South, things are at least looking more promising after back-to-back wins and they have reason to be confident heading into this encounter.
The Giants previously stout run defence couldn't contain Darren McFadden last Sunday and that bodes well for Saints running back Mark Ingram. He's averaging 4.4 yards per carry his season with a total of 450 rushing yards and he already has five rushing touchdowns.
Big Blue will look to attack the Saints through the air where New Orleans rank a lowly 26th in pass defence, giving up 275.7 yards per game. If Eli Manning and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr can have some success, that will spell trouble for New Orleans.
For the Giants to be unable to stop the run while knowing Dallas were going to rely heavily on it last weekend is a concern but the brittle nature of New Orleans' defence is an even greater worry. If the Giants look after the ball, they should have enough to get the win.
Pick: New York Giants
After back-to-back performances that offered promise, the San Francisco 49ers regressed in a big way last week. Colin Kaepernick was held to just 124 passing yards with passes sailing into both sidelines and one staff member having to be checked on after being hit on the head. The 49ers were held to just three points. They remain rooted to the bottom of the NFC West with a 2-5 record.
Now they must face divisional rivals the St Louis Rams with their hugely impressive rookie, Todd Gurley. Gurley's average of 110.5 rushing yards per game leads the NFL this season - he's averaging six yards per carry. San Francisco rank 20th in run defence (113.3 yards per game). Since Gurley returned from an ACL injury, he's been able to run the ball on Arizona, Green Bay and Cleveland. As yet no one's found a way to stop him and there's nothing to suggest the 49ers will either. Victory will give the Rams a 4-3 record, ensuring they would stay no more than one game adrift of the first placed Cardinals.
Pick: St Louis Rams
This is a meeting of two of the most improved teams in 2015. The New York Jets came agonisingly close to ending the New England Patriots unbeaten start to the season but ultimately surrendered a fourth-quarter lead in Foxborough. The Oakland Raiders meanwhile crushed division rivals the San Diego Chargers in a dominant display on the road.
The Jets defence remains one of the leading units in the league this season. They rank No 2 overall, No 1 in rush defence (71.5 yards per game), No 3 in scoring defence (17.5 points per game) and No 4 in pass defence (211.7 yards per game).
Oakland's star is on the rise. The play of quarterback Derek Carr and rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper continues to impress and scoring 37 points in San Diego certainly caught everybody's attention. Are they ready to take on a defensive unit as strong as that of the Jets? Well, this weekend we'll find out. Back in Oakland, expect the atmosphere to be electric and the game to be entertaining. Ultimately though the Jets defence should prove to be too good for a Raiders team which continues to improve.
Pick: New York Jets
Six weeks after Tony Romo broke his collarbone, maybe the Dallas Cowboys are beginning to realise the drop off in production without him is greater than they imagined. They played well enough in New York to beat the Giants, dominating time of possession by running the ball at will but Matt Cassel threw three costly second-half interceptions and rarely will any team win when they are so frivolous.
The Dallas defence only allowed one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown but they just cannot get takeaways. They only have three all season and the Cowboys -9 turnover differential is the worst in the league!
Now Seattle fly into town with a veteran running back who looked much more like his old self in the win over the 49ers. Marshawn Lynch was back to his physical, bruising best, bulldozing his way to 122 rushing yards and a touchdown as the Seahawks kept themselves in the race for the NFC West.
There continues to be speculation over Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant's return from an ankle injury this weekend. Even if he does return, he's unlikely to be fully fit and despite several fourth-quarter collapses, this Seahawks defence still ranks third overall - plenty good enough to handle a Dallas offence which is scoring just 20 points per game.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
November 2
Sunday night closes with the most mouth-watering contest of Week 8 - one undefeated record will continue, one will come to an end! Green Bay's fifth ranked scoring offence (27.3 points per game) goes on the road to face the Denver Broncos and their No 1 ranked defence.
It's a unit which leads the league in scoring defence (17 points per game) and pass defence (192.2 yards per game). On Sunday night it'll look to back up those stats by shutting down one of the best quarterbacks in the game right now, Aaron Rodgers.
Both of these teams are fresh off a bye week and that's good news for the Packers. Starting running back Eddie Lacy has been hampered by niggling injuries this season and barely took part in their last game against San Diego, allowing James Starks to impressively fill in. The extra week's rest will certainly have helped his cause.
The Denver Broncos will be hoping the bye week will have helped their offence find a spark. Despite being undefeated they only score an average of 23.2 points per game and two of their six wins have been secured by defensive touchdowns. It's hard to envisage defence alone being enough to win against Green Bay, Denver's offence will have to improve but in the rarefied air of Mile High Stadium the Broncos may just have enough in their favour to stay unbeaten.
Pick: Denver Broncos
November 3
The Carolina Panthers head into this game with a perfect 6-0 record. Despite everyone believing their offence is short of a genuine receiving threat with Kelvin Benjamin side-lined, they have the sixth ranked scoring offence, averaging 27 points per game. That's complemented by the NFL's sixth ranked scoring defence, conceding just over 18 points per game and they have a +4 turnover differential. The play of quarterback Cam Newton has generally been outstanding and even when he had a poor game, throwing three interceptions last Sunday night, the team rallied around him to get the win.
In contrast the Indianapolis Colts can't beat anyone outside of their own division. It says something about the standard of the NFC South that the Colts are still clear in first place with a 3-4 record! Quarterback Andrew Luck's play has been erratic and contributed to a -8 turnover differential - only Dallas have a worse record. The Colts defence is ranked dead last while their offence is only scoring 21 points per game.
Last weekend they lost at home to a New Orleans Saints team which, by general consensus is not good. This weekend's matchup is on the road against a Carolina team which already has 18 sacks in only six games. They'll afford Andrew Luck little time in the pocket and in an error-prone season the Panthers defence will expect to benefit from a pass rush which will force him to get rid of the ball quickly.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
