10 year trends and statistics for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and Prix de l'Abbaye

Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and the Qatar Prix de l'Abbaye and picks out the key statistics.

The effect of the draw is something of an unknown quantity in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with jockeys suggesting that it is not so significant over 12 furlongs at Chantilly as it is over 10.

A low draw has been a significant advantage at Longchamp over the years but may not be such a factor here which will be good news for Japanese Derby winner Makahiki who has landed 14 of 16.

The key statistic in terms of this year's renewal is the age factor with five year old winners having been few and far between; Marienbard (2002) and Tony Bin (1988) were the last two while Orfevre was a beaten favourite as a five-year-old in 2013.

Postponed, then, has to be taken on and he takes up a sizeable percentage of the market.

Winning form over 12 furlongs at the top level has been an important factor which is no great surprise and doesn't help to significantly reduce the number of potential candidates, especially if you are lenient towards the likes of New Bay and Savoir Vivre.

Highland Reel and Harzand have to bounce back from relatively poor runs although the latter does have at least one valid excuse and it's not hard to imagine this test showing him in a better light. The vibes are positive but no recent winner has finished worse than fifth in their prep and that horse was Workforce whose 'prep' came in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

Fillies have a fantastic recent record which is reflected in the Prix Vermeille being a notable pointer and Left Hand has to be accorded respect but it could be deemed as a negative that connections were initially considering Champions Day rather than the Arc for the Dubawi filly.

Silverwave's win in the Grand Prix de Paris hasn't really worked out while the admirable Found has consistently been found wanting at this level and it's not hard to come to the conclusion of many that the race may well lie between Harzand and Makahiki.

Given his smoother preparation, the Japanese horse has to be the call with last year's third New Bay preferred of the older generation.

• Winners have been aged three (7) and four (3).
• Seven winners won their preceding start.
• Nine winners had their preceding start in September.
• Nine winners had won a Group One over 12 furlongs - Solemia was third in the Vermeille on her Group One debut.
• Five winners had run no more than five times during the current season.
• Six of the seven three year old winners had won a European Derby/Oaks; the exception (Rail Link) didn't contest a Derby.
• Seven winners won at least 50% of their starts during the current season.
• Eight winners either raced in midfield or were held-up.

There have been six winning six-year-olds of the Qatar Prix de l'Abbaye in the last 10 years so it's difficult to be too dogmatic about the chances, or otherwise, of the handful of horses older than that in the line-up.

This has not been a good race for established Group One performers rather surprisingly and there must be some mileage in taking on Mecca's Angel with conditions expected to be on the fast side.

She had a number of her opponents behind when winning the Nunthorpe Stakes at York on good ground and will clearly take plenty of beating on that form but has a little to prove if conditions ride faster.

The only trouble then is nailing the colours to the mast of a rival to oppose her with there being relatively little to get excited about on the stats.

The each-way suggestion is Nunthorpe fourth Cotai Glory who won the World Trophy at Newbury last time, a race which has provided three winners in the decade.

The bare form is nothing to get excited about but his run at York and second in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot are much more interesting in the context of this race and I believe his prominent running style will also be an asset.

Trainer Charlie Hills has enjoyed an excellent season or two with his sprinters and his son of Exceed And Excel will be more at home on the quicker ground that he's expected to encounter here than the rain-softened ground at Newbury.

The fact that he managed to win that race in spite of the underfoot conditions bodes well and odds of up to 20/1 look to underestimate his chance of at least hitting the frame. 

• Winners have been aged three, four (2), five and six (6).
• Five winners have returned at a single figure SP, including one favourite.
• All winners had finished in the first six on their preceding start with six finishing in the first three.
• Only two winners had previously won a Group One - three were having their first start at this level.
• All winners had won or been placed at Group Three level or higher.
• Nine winners had had between three and seven starts during the current season.