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Still betting on Blues

City setting the pace but Chelsea remain the value bet, says Ed

Ed Chamberlin - Ed Chamberlin Posted 27th October 2011 view comments

Those were two extraordinary derbies on Super Sunday.

First up, Manchester City made what Jamie Redknapp described in the studio as the "biggest statement in Premier League history" by silencing their neighbours 6-1.

Sky Bet's title odds: 11/10 Man City, 15/8 Man City, 4/1 Chelsea, 40/1 Liverpool, 40/1 Tottenham, 40/1 Arsenal, 1,000/1 bar.

Chelsea: value for money

Chelsea: value for money

It means Sky Bet's Premier League favourites have 'flip-flopped'. City are now the 11/10 favourites from 2/1, while United have drifted from 11/10 to 15/8.

It's too early to write off Man Utd and, as Gary Neville said on the show, they are sure to bounce back, but they have major problems to address in central midfield and defence.

I still think Chelsea are the best value at 4/1 despite the setback at QPR on Sunday.

Ed Chamberlin
Quotes of the week

Everyone rightly praised Man City but, just like punters did with United earlier in the season, there is a danger of getting carried away. 11/10 is very short for a team that has a tough run of fixtures to come, and we don't yet know how they will react to defeats and injuries, plus whether they have the unity and desire to last the distance.

I still think Chelsea are the best value at 4/1, despite the setback at QPR on Sunday. That was the second part of Super Sunday and I have to admit to being surprised by the feistiness of the rivalry in West London.

Chelsea (8/15) face another big London derby at Saturday lunchtime as they kick off the Premier League weekend on Sky Sports against Arsenal (5/1).

This is a fascinating contest as it will tell us if Chelsea are real title contenders and whether Arsene Wenger has got Arsenal back on track.

Since their Old Trafford nightmare they have dug out a number of results, without looking convincing. Saturday will tell us how much progress they have really made.

Arsenal fans will go there in hope as they have won more Premier League games at Stamford Bridge (six) than any other side and scored the most PL goals against Chelsea (53).

I doubt they have ever been as big as 5/1 for a game at the Bridge, but this does look a very tough task for this current Arsenal side.

Humiliation

So Arsenal have reacted well to their Old Trafford nightmare but how will Manchester United (4/5) react to their similar humiliation last weekend?

The good news is that they have the 'sign' over Everton (7/2) in the Premier League. United have won 28 of the 38 PL meetings, losing just four and have scored more goals (77) against Everton than they have against any other PL side.

Man Utd have won more points (42) and scored more goals (38) at Goodison Park than they have at any other away ground in PL history. Despite the history between these two I still think it's a brave punter who backs Manchester United at odds on this weekend.

It's hard not to feel sorry for Wolves (14/1) having to meet in-form Manchester City (1/6) twice in a week. Wolves' last top flight win at City came 32 years ago - 3-2 at Maine Road in December 1979.

Super Sunday this week comes from White Hart Lane and is another fascinating London derby. Tottenham (4/11) meet QPR (7/1) for the first time in any competition for 16 years. They last met in the Premier League during the 1995-96 season, when Tottenham won home and away.

Then Monday Night Football returns with Stoke (11/10) against Newcastle (11/5). Stoke have never lost against Newcastle in the Premier League and won both games last season.

Stoke have been vulnerable after Europa League games but have no such worries on Monday and will make life very difficult for Alan Pardew's side. I hope you can join Gary Neville and I from 7pm on Sky Sports HD1.

I'm glad I gave a "bet of the week" the body-swerve last week but this weekend I strongly fancy Norwich to win for us for the third time this season.

Norwich have won their last two games at Carrow Road, while Blackburn Rovers have not won away this season, losing 3-1 at both Villa and Newcastle. I think Norwich are a big price at evens and I'm confident they can keep our winning run going and make it six winning 'bets of the week' from the last seven selections.

Racing

The proper racing is back! The new National Hunt season steps up another gear this weekend with one of the best renewals of the Charlie Hall Chase that I can remember.

I fancy Time For Rupert (3/1 with Sky Bet) to win it and to go on and become the biggest threat to Long Run's Gold Cup crown.

Just like last term, over the next three weeks I'm going to list three horses for the season, which should pay to follow.

Last year Kid Cassidy, Sweet Irony and Tocca Ferro did us proud winning six races between them, with the latter unbeaten and progressing at a rate of knots until injury struck on the eve of the Totesport Trophy at Newbury.

I was convinced Tocca Ferro would win that prize and become a genuine Champion Hurdle contender. That could still be the case as Emma Lavelle says that is the plan for February next year and they think he's so well handicapped that he won't run before the Newbury showpiece.

Tony McCoy has also done us proud in this column over the last few years.

He's given us Don't Push It, Binocular and Kid Cassidy at the beginning of the past few seasons.

I spoke at length to AP on Monday and he was adamant that Kid Cassidy is the horse to stick with this season. He was brilliant at times last season despite the champ struggling to settle him in his races and was badly affected by the incident when two horses were electrocuted at Newbury.

We didn't see the real Kid Cassidy again until the Punchestown Festival, where he was a brilliant winner. AP is convinced this horse can go right to the top and Kid Cassidy is my first horse to follow this season.

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