10 year statistics and trends for the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket

Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Sunday's Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and picks out the key statistics.

In contrast to the boys' Classic, the Qipco 1000 Guineas has not been such a happy hunting ground for horses making their seasonal reappearance which is a potential negative for leading players Minding and Lumiere.

The three to have successfully made a winning return to action were Finsceal Beo (5/4), Ghanaati (20/1) and Blue Bunting (16/1) so all is by no means lost but Aidan O'Brien has only tasted victory with 25/1 scorer Homecoming Queen who was having her third start of the season and fourteenth of her career.

All three of his runners that were sent off as favourite have been beaten and, although logic would suggest that his stable is too powerful for that record to continue, there is reason enough to take on the Fillies' Mile winner.

Of the three winning favourites, two were trained in France and Midweek must be considered for Criquette Head-Maarek following her close second in the Prix Imprudence, a race in which the 2014 winner Miss France (another French trained winner at 7/1) returned a beaten favourite in her prep run as did Head-Maarek's 2010 winner Special Duty.

Both had achieved more as juveniles than Midweek though - as had 2008 winner Natagora - and outright shock results have been relatively few and far between so it is no surprise that the majority of winners had also won their preceding start.

There are only two fillies in the field to have won their most recent start this season and they are Jet Setting and Nathra.

The latter was well beaten by Minding in the Fillies' Mile and connections didn't appear confident that they would be able to reverse the form following her success in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.

It's debatable how much attention should be paid to that but she hasn't been missed in the betting and of more interest at a significantly longer price is Jet Setting who has taken her form to a new level for her new connections.

Legatissimo had stepped up markedly on her juvenile form prior to winning last year and the Fast Company filly is clearly thriving although Alice Springs, third last time, can be expected to improve from her seasonal reappearance and close the gap at the very least.

Neither make huge appeal and ground conditions this spring have meant that fewer runners than usual have raced this season so perhaps this will be another year when the winner is making her reappearance.

Marcel Boussac one-two Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks are worth considering although the latter will probably need a strongly run race to figure as she was already been talked of as an Oaks filly last year and may lack the pace for a steadily run affair.

Ballydoyle appeared to be the stable first string when beaten by Minding in the Moyglare Stud Stakes so it is far from inconceivable that she will be able to turn that form around.

The each-way suggestion though is Turret Rocks and that is based in no small part on her trainer's record in this race. Jim Bolger's runners have finished second at 9/2, sixth at 28/1, third at 25/1, second at 12/1, third (20s) and sixth (40s), and first at 5/4.

The daughter of Fastnet Rock is clearly not here for the air and, although she has twice finished behind Ballydoyle, this race is occasionally run at a pace that suits a stayer such as Turret Rocks and she's worth chancing at a price despite not ticking all of the stats' boxes.

• Winners have been priced between 5/4 and 25/1 with six returned at single figure SPs.
• Three favourites have been successful with a further two placed.
• Three winners were making their seasonal reappearance; four of the exceptions won their prep race.
• Nine winners had had between two and eight career starts; 2012 winner Homecoming Queen had run 13 times.
• No winner was unbeaten. Five had been beaten more than twice.
• Four winners had previously won a Group One.
• Seven winners had won at least a Group Three, two of the three exceptions hadn't previously run in a Group race.
• Seven winners had won their preceding start, the exceptions finished second, third & sixth.
• Four winners had already won over at least a mile.