Ryder Cup guide

A preview, stats and best bets for this week's Ryder Cup at Gleneagles in Scotland

By Dave Tindall

Image: Who will come out on top?

Europe have won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups and haven't lost on home soil for 21 years, but it's dangerous to presume that those stats will simply translate into an easy win for Paul McGinley's men at Gleneagles this week.

Take the last two Ryder Cups; one, a real nail-biter, the other an absolute epic.

Europe had to dig deep to win a rain-hit battle at Celtic Manor in 2010 when an inexperienced and underdog American team almost caused a surprise. And two years ago Europe needed to pull off one of the greatest comebacks in sporting history, rallying from 10-4 down to perform the 'Miracle at Medinah' .

True, Europe produced two nine-point drubbings in 2004 and 2006 but they are very much exceptions to the rule.

Wind back through recent history and five of the last 11 Ryder Cups have been won by a single point while the match before that was tied. Two others were decided by narrowish two-point margins. 

Advertisement

It's for that reason that the bookies are cautious about dangling fancy prices about Tom Watson's men in just the second ever Ryder Cup to be played on Scottish soil. Sky Bet offer 8/13 Europe, 7/4 USA and that, in football terms, almost equates to there being nothing between the two teams but the Euros getting the nod due to home advantage.

Here's a look at how the teams match up.

More from 2014 Ryder Cup

Match play form guide

There was a time when match play was hardly used at the top level but these days it's much more common. So how have the 24 players fared? Here's their collated results across Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, Seve Trophy, WGC-Accenture Match Play, Eurasia Cup and Volvo World Match Play.

Team Europe

Ian Poulter W49 L21 H5 68%
Graeme McDowell W39 L18 H3 67%
Victor Dubuisson W6 L3 H0 66%
Rory McIlroy W22 L13 H2 62%
Lee Westwood W56 L39 H8 58%
Sergio Garcia W41 L32 H6 55%
Henrik Stenson W29 L23 L8 55%
Martin Kaymer W18 L15 H1 54%
Justin Rose W20 L17 H1 54%
Jamie Donaldson W5 L7 H4 44%
Thomas Bjorn W24 L41 H6 39%
Stephen Gallacher W3 L10 H2 27%

Given how many matches they've racked up, the matchplay records of both Poulter and McDowell are outstanding. 

Team USA

Matt Kuchar W24 L11 H3 67%
Hunter Mahan W31 L16 H4 65%
Jordan Spieth W5 L3 H0 62%
Webb Simpson W12 L8 H2 59%
Rickie Fowler W7 L5 H2 57%
Bubba Watson W15 L12 H0 55%
Phil Mickelson W50 L46 H17 52%
Jim Furyk W43 L43 H7 50%
Zach Johnson W20 L20 H1 50%
Keegan Bradley W6 L6 H1 50%
Patrick Reed W1 L1 H0 50%
Jimmy Walker W1 L1 H0 50%

Possibly, there's a case that the US team's figures are made to look good by lots of easyish wins in the Presidents Cup or Accenture Match Play, but the fact that not one single American has an overall losing record suggests, as a group, they're pretty handy in this format. 

Ryder Cup form

Image: Justin Rose and Ian Poulter: Great Ryder Cup records

Team Europe

Ian Poulter (80%)
Justin Rose (67%)
Sergio Garcia (64%)
Lee Westwood (58%)
Thomas Bjorn (58%)
Martin Kaymer (58%)
Rory McIlroy (56%)
Graeme McDowell (50%)
Henrik Stenson (43%)

Team USA

Keegan Bradley (75%)
Zach Johnson (59%)
Matt Kuchar (57%)
Hunter Mahan (56%)
Webb Simpson (50%)
Phil Mickelson (45%)
Bubba Watson (38%)
Jim Furyk (37%)
Rickie Fowler (33%)

Ian Poulter is the clear standout but can he keep performing such heroic feats? Perhaps he can but it's asking a lot.  

Fatigue

After a long and sustained run of big events over the last few months, fatigue (mental and physical) must be a real factor and many of this week's players have mentioned their lack of a break. So, taking into account the 15 weeks of golf that started with the US Open in mid June, here's how many times the field have teed it up during that period. First the Americans:

Team USA: 12 Patrick Reed; 11 Hunter Mahan, Webb Simpson; 10 Keegan Bradley, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson; 9 Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar; 8 Phil Mickelson.

Team Europe: 11 Stephen Gallacher; 10 Thomas Bjorn, Jamie Donaldson, Martin Kaymer, Rory McIlroy; 9 Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell, Justin Rose; 8 Victor Dubuisson, Henrik Stenson; 7 Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood.

Image: Rickie Fowler: Getting in the mood

Average starts: US 9.91, Europe 9

Europe are the fresher team, having played, on average, almost a tournament less. In an event often decided by such fine margins, this could play a factor. Perhaps, though, these stats are more useful in determining who to focus on in the top player betting. 

Course form

None of the Americans have teed it up competitively at Gleneagles although Keegan Bradley and Jim Furyk did go on a scouting trip to the course with skipper Tom Watson when they were over in the UK for this summer's Open Championship.

As for the Euros, here's a list of their most recent starts in the Johnnie Walker Championship. Top 10s are bolded up.

Thomas Bjorn (MC 2013, 10th 2012Won 20114th 2006)
Jamie Donaldson (26th 2011, 3rd 2010, 6th 2009)
Victor Dubuisson(15th 2012, 8th 2011, MC 2010)
Stephen Gallacher 11 (2nd 2013, 6th 2012, 6th 2011, 4 more top 10s)
Sergio Garcia (Never played)
Martin Kaymer (MC 2008, MC 2007)
Graeme McDowell (MC 2008, MC 2007, 2nd 2004)
Rory McIlroy (MC 2008 only start)
Ian Poulter 7 (MC on all three starts, last 2003)
Justin Rose (5th 2008, 11th 2001, 15th 1999)
Henrik Stenson 8 (Not played since 28th in 2004. Best 11th 2000)
Lee Westwood 7 (10th 2008, 9th 2007).

Conclusion

The stats can be used to argue the case for either team but here's one that grabs the attention:

The last five Ryder Cups have been won by the side with the lowest (best) average world ranking. 

Which team comes out on top in that category this year? Answer - the United States!

If that's a starting point, it's not difficult to point to plenty reasons why the so-called underdogs can spoil Europe's party.

First, this week's venue is a Jack Nicklaus-design and its size and layout feels very American so should help the visitors feel at home.

Second, how on earth can Europe follow what they did at Medinah? The rhythm of sport suggests they'll come down from that absurd high-point.

Third, Tom Watson has won five Opens and four of those came in Scotland so there is huge love and affection for him here. Does destiny decree that he skippers a winning Ryder Cup team at 'The Home of Golf'? Sometimes it feels the story is written.

And, finally, if some of the above sound a little esoteric, consider this: In the last 10 sessions of Ryder Cup golf, the USA have won six of them and Europe just two (admittedly, by big margins).

Still, it's hard to get away from the fact that it will be tight once more and it's true that many European punters just simply won't want to put money on an American win.

But if you don't feel such an act compromises your enjoyment, the odds suggest the value lies with the visitors.

Image: Tom Watson: Won four majors in Scotland

Picking an exact correct scoreline can be a dangerous and often agonising past-time so back USA to win 15-13 at 10/1 and 14.5-13.5 at 11/1 while also throw in the tie at 10/1. We're due one and punters can always trade it nearer the finish.

As for the top points markets, Rickie Fowler's great play in the big events this year and his run to the last four of the WGC-Accenture Match Play suggest he could be the star for the Americans.

He's relatively fresh too and even though his bare Ryder Cup stats aren't great, he has positive memories of his one start in the event having birdied each of the last four holes to half his singles with Edoardo Molinari at Celtic Manor in 2010.

Fowler looks just the type who can find the inspiration to hole a string of key putts so back him to be top USA scorer at 5/1.

For top European, Justin Rose has an excellent Ryder Cup record, boasts some good course form and is also more lightly raced than many on show. Take him to be the event's top scorer at 12/1 as Europe have produced the highest individual scorer in five of the last six Ryder Cups. 

By similar reasoning, Graeme McDowell is superb in the matchplay format and was the hero at Celtic Manor in 2010. A second place on this course adds further confidence and skipper Paul McGinley expects a big week from him.

The 16/1 for top overall scorer looks good.

Of the specials, the Who will Lead after Day 1-2-3 market is interesting.

The USA-USA-Tie option is worth a throw of the dice at 55/1 as the Medinah factor could make Watson's men nervous if they lead into the final day. Also, the stats about fatigue suggest the Americans may run out of petrol on the final day. USA-USA-USA is just 6/1 so it's clear where the value lies.

Finally, Victor Dubuisson has a nice mix of course form, matchplay form and boasts limitless potential.

Image: Victor Dubuisson: Tipped to shine

There are various ways to back the enigmatic Frenchman but try Top Continental Europe points scorer at 7/1. His rivals in this market are Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer and Thomas Bjorn. Sergio will take some beating but the others look vulnerable.

Best bets

3pts USA to win 15-13 at 10/1

3pts USA to win 14.5-13.5 at 11/1

3pts The tie at 10/1

3pts Rickie Fowler to be top American points scorer at 5/1

2pts e.w. Justin Rose to be top overall points scorer at 12/1

2pts e.w. Graeme McDowell to be top overall points scorer at 16/1

2pts Victor Dubuisson to be top Continental Europe points scorer at 7/1 

1pt USA-USA-Tie at 55/1 in Lead After Day 1-2-3

Outbrain