Former Formula One driver John Watson shares his thoughts on a fascinating season ahead.
Former F1 driver John Watson shares his thoughts on the new season
John Watson raced between 1973 and 1985 for teams such as Brabham, Penske, Lotus and McLaren, winning five grands prix and finishing runner-up in the 1982 World Championship. Here he shares his thoughts on what promises to be a fascinating Formula One season.
Can Michael Schumacher become World Champion again?
"I can think of a number of drivers who have retired, made comebacks and won World Championships. Alain Prost is one and Niki Lauda is another. As long as you've got the ability and the commitment to get involved in the training programme you've got to do, be in the right state of mind, that you're not just doing it to make a lot of money - I think that would be a mistake. And in the case of Michael Schumacher, he's not doing it for the money; he's doing it because he misses it. His commitment to F1 from his first days has been an example to other drivers - that that's the way you go about it. The fitness and training side of it he brought to new levels and he is probably the best motivator of a team that I've ever seen. The reason for that was because he was never satisfied with a certain level of performance; he strove to achieve more than anybody else. Other drivers almost pre-condition themselves to accept they can never do anymore. Michael would never pre-condition himself."
Will age and absence have an effect on his performances?
"He's been out motor racing since the end of 2006 but you never forget how to drive a racing car, first of all. Secondly, in relative terms, he is still a young man. Clearly there is a very, very small change compared to someone like Lewis (Hamilton) at 25 - physique, eyes, balance. He's 16-17 years younger than Michael and in theory he should have an advantage. But Michael is coming back fresh, he's highly motivated, in my opinion he's more than capable of winning a World Championship. The team will become the Michael Schumacher Mercedes-Benz team, no question about that. The only issue he will have - and this will only be in the early races - is that he won't be 'race fit'.
"It's only when the lights go out in Bahrain that we'll have an indication where he is in terms of his motor racing fitness. We know he was a hard and uncompromising racer but that was when he was razor blade sharp. He's not razor blade sharp at the minute in terms of the motor race. He will be in terms of driving the car - but there's a difference between driving a car and racing. It'll show up in terms of track craft, overtaking, courage even - things that you don't really access when you're doing testing. If he's going to be vulnerable in any area, in my view that's where he'll be vulnerable."
Given his status as an all-time great, might the younger drivers see him as a target?
"If I think back to 1994, Michael was almost destined to win his first World Championship. His principal contemporary was Ayrton Senna, who joined Williams in the belief that was going to be a shoe-in for a couple more titles and lots of wins and then he could set off onto a retirement course. What happened was that the Williams at the start of that year was not a good car in relation to the Benetton and because of the pride that Senna had, he had to start digging very, very deep in his reserves of experience. I saw the young hunter running down the head boy if you like - and there was no bigger name in F1 in 1994 than Ayrton Senna. Now Michael's coming back and he's a big scalp to capture. So aside from him being a competitor, he is a big name that Lewis, for example, can go out and do to Michael what Michael was doing to Senna. It's an interesting prospect I think."
And what about his team-mate at Mercedes GP, Nico Rosberg?
"Nico Rosberg is one of the young breed of drivers who has got a lot of ability. I think that he needs more application. The problem he now faces is the problem that every team-mate of Michael has faced, and that is Michael is going to draw the team, both the technical side and Mercedes-Benz as a company, around him. It'll become Michael Schumacher's team. I don't know if there are any restrictions in the contract as Michael had with (Ferrari team-mates) Rubens (Barrichello) and Eddie Irvine. Assuming there is not, then Rosberg is free to go out and do what he wants to do. On the other hand, if there are restrictions and Michael is the number one driver, then Michael is there to win and it's only if he has a problem then the second driver is there to win. I don't know what the situation is."
The team have said they'll get the same treatment...
"The treatment will be the same - that applied to Irvine and Rubens. Where the difference lies is that Michael had a contract that he was to be the driver that would win. So if Rubens was leading, as we saw in Austria in 2002, he was obliged by contract to let Michael win. I doubt that would be in the (Mercedes) contract.
"The thing that Rosberg has got to do is up his game significantly. A driver like Michael is such a complete driver: how do you challenge him? How do you beat him on his strengths? I think the answer is: you don't beat him on his strengths. You have to find a vulnerability and work on that.
"I think what Rosberg has to think about is that if he can go out on pace and challenge Michael then that's fine. But I suspect that he needs to look to himself to improve his own game because I know from people at Williams, they mentioned a few things they weren't entirely satisfied with."
Like what?
"I think a lot of drivers reach a point where they think 'That's the maximum I can do and that's it. If I've achieved that maximum then there's no more to achieve'. Michael doesn't think that - Michael doesn't have a maximum. He thinks that a maximum is something you always strive to improve. I think there were also issues in terms of his (Rosberg's) commitment to his training. I think his team-mate (Kazuki) Nakajima was probably, in the team's opinion, somebody who was more committed to training and fitness. Not just being fit enough but in fact being fitter than you need to be. And it's having that little bit of reserve that gave Michael the benefits during the height of his career."
What does Jenson Button have to do to try and match Lewis Hamilton at McLaren?
"I think first of all it's learning the McLaren culture. Jenson is almost chalk and cheese to Lewis, who is a natural competitor and an aggressive race driver. Last year, he managed to drag outstanding performances out of a poor car - by the standards of McLaren - over the season. I don't know whether Jenson can do that as well as Lewis does but in terms of overall lap time I think there's very little to choose between them.
"Where both drivers have got to be careful is that if one does manage to get a performance out of the car then the other will struggle to adapt to that driver's set-up or approach. McLaren are scrupulous in running two number one drivers but there is an automatic and unconscious bias to the driver who is getting the job done. One of the lessons I learned is that you can put anything on a bit of paper - which is what McLaren will have done - that both drivers are going to get equal treatment. But if one driver gets dominance over the other then it's natural that people in the team will show an unconsciousness towards that driver.
"At the minute you have to say that Lewis is going to go into the first grand prix as the one who's going to get the job done for McLaren. And he seems to be able to work his way around a car that may not be as perfect. Jenson struggled in the second half of last year, particularly in qualifying, which then compromised his race performances. If the car isn't spot on for Jenson, he might not be able to drag out that qualifying performance that Lewis can do.
"In terms of race driving, Jenson might be the more efficient of the two because of his driving style. Whereas Lewis is much more aggressive and is more likely to be harder on the car, harder on the tyres, harder on the brakes and of course the factor we don't know yet is that some cars are actually harder than others on their tyres."
What if Button gains the upper hand?
"I think the 'Hamilton clan' believe they can handle Jenson - and that's for Jenson to disprove, for him to get out there and show what a great and complete driver he really is. Because if he is emasculated by Lewis then it will impact on his Championship because people will say 'He had a huge technical advantage in the first half of 2009 and when he's up against a real racer......'
What effect do you think the ban on fuel stops will have on the racing?
"The only effect it will have is that some drivers will wake up and learn how to drive a much heavier car at the start of a grand prix quicker than others and there will be some who have abused their brakes and will pay the consequences. But they'll learn - they'll pick it all up in four or five grands prix. But on some circuits it'll be more prevalent than others, depending on the nature of the race track. Some circuits are inherently hard on brakes and some are inherently less hard. And the ones that are hard on brakes will penalise the drivers that are aggressive on brakes."
Assuming Red Bull's new car has what is takes, does Sebastian Vettel have what it takes to become the youngest ever World Champion?
"Yes, I think he does. I think he's illustrated that on a number of occasions. He's just a very gifted young man. He's in a very, very quick car, although reliability was a bugbear for him in 2009. Arguably, he could have been the World Champion. If that car had been more reliable - bear in mind also that they had to mollycoddle the (Renault) engines for the last three or four races - and also bear in mind that compared to the Mercedes engine Jenson had, they were at a reasonably large disadvantage."
And what about Mark Webber?
"Mark is a driver who's had to work hard to achieve what he's achieved. He's had to do it against adversity but Vettel came in and that was going to be a real benchmark challenge for him - because Vettel is ultimately the future of Red Bull. But Webber has done a super job and will no doubt do a super job this year. But even now there are rumours that (Kimi) Raikkonen will be put into that car for next year, which will make him feel 'Well, what have I got to do?'"
Felipe Massa seems to have made a complete recovery following his accident. Do you think he can challenge Alonso?
"It will be interesting to see where Alonso takes that team because I think you've got a situation in Ferrari where Massa will gradually find himself falling behind Alonso. Alonso is another driver in the Michael (Schumacher) mode, who understands how to make a team and a car work for
you.
"In terms of speed I don't think there'll be a difference. It's how you attain your status in the team. I think that when Massa had Raikkonen as a team-mate, Raikkonen is a guy who just wants to drive fast. Massa found himself - with Michael's assistance - beginning to work with the team much, much better than Raikkonen did, to the point where the team really became Massa's team. In the first half of last year, Raikkonen showed disinterest; after Massa's accident, Raikkonen suddenly won a grand prix and he had some very good races."
How might Alonso react to being outperformed? He has struggled when placed with a strong team-mate in the past...
"Alonso is a singular, selfish race driver - you have to be. He's won two World Championships, he's been a number one driver, he knows how to use the politics. Felipe is a lovely, lovely man, he's probably a very apolitical person, he achieved great success in conjunction with his engineer Rob Smedley, with the back-up and total assistance of Michael Schumacher against his team-mate (Raikkonen), who is a blindingly fast race driver but who almost gave a sense of ambivalence. There will be no ambivalence from Alonso.
"If Felipe goes out there and blows his doors off, then that's going to be an interesting one to watch. But my feeling is that Felipe will almost now be thinking that his time, when he was the focal point at Ferrari, was the end of 2007, 2008 and up to his accident in 2009. He was at that stage the de-facto number one driver."
Might we expect the odd strong showing here and there from a midfield team, such as with Force India in Belgium last year?
"It's hard to tell what a midfield team is going to be these days. You've got three teams that look the quickest so far, that's Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull. Mercedes - we don't really know where they are because of the Michael factor principally - and also Ross Brawn is very adept at not showing his hand, so I would imagine they'll be up amongst the other three teams once they get to Bahrain. As far as the rest is concerned, the rest is the middle ground."
Can we assume already that Lotus will be the best of the new teams?
"I think you've got to look at experience and assume that's going to be the case. Mike Gascoyne knows his way round a grand prix car and the only other car that's going to be a challenge is the Virgin car, which has been designed with computational fluid dynamics; in other words it's never seen a wind tunnel. Ultimately, those four teams have got a mountain to climb. I suspect that not all four of them will be on the grid in Bahrain - in fact, if more than two are there I'll be surprised. Their troubles will be that they won't have the sorts of budgets the other teams have got. For me, their biggest achievement will be survival - getting through to 2011."
Who's your tip for the title?
"Well, unfortunately it's going to be more difficult than ever to determine who the World Champion is going to be, because there are so many new factors. You've got to put Alonso down as one of the contenders, you've got to have one of the two McLaren drivers..."
Most people would say it would be Hamilton...
"That's a reasonable assumption but it's just an assumption based on what he know. The only issue I would have with Red Bull is that unless they get better engine equalisation they are going to be marginalised a little bit."
Isn't the Renault engine supposed to be better on fuel consumption though?
"It may have an effect; if you can run a little less fuel then that's an advantage but at the end of the day it's difficult to give away 30 or 40 horsepower. Because that horsepower enables you to do things aerodynamically you might not otherwise be able to.
"My thoughts would be: you've got to look at Alonso, you've got to think Lewis, Jenson, one of Red Bulls, depending on overall engine performance, and your outside shot has got to be Michael."
