Peter Canavan: Armagh can prove doubters wrong against Cavan
Saturday 28 May 2016 07:21, UK
I wonder if I am the only person to see a shock on the cards when Cavan and Armagh meet on Sunday.
The majority of pundits are expecting Cavan to win, but I am not so sure.
Logically, I guess the pundits are right. Cavan have just been promoted to Division One while Armagh have fallen to Division Three.
And there was a massive 17 points between the two sides when they met a few months ago in the league, but I still don't know. I give Armagh a real shot and here is why.
They are almost back to full strength
In fairness to Armagh, they didn't have the Crossmaglen contingent and they were minus other key personnel when these two last met.
They still don't have Jamie Clarke, but I'd expect that Ciaran McKeever will have a more influential role on Sunday's proceedings.
This will be a much more focused Armagh team than the one that was defeated at Breffni Park and they have plenty to make up for.
Many journeys start from rock bottom
I suppose the key point for me tipping Armagh to win is that the 17-point loss to Cavan in the league.
It was the lowest point for many of the Armagh players in their short careers, but I would guess that it ranks for Kieran McGeeney as one of his worst defeats too.
Even though Cavan have yet to win silverware this year, it's harder to think of a greater fairytale than the return of Seanie Johnston to the fold.
A lot of people following the team wanted to see what the response was - and here's where I think they are learning. After that they played three games and did not lose any. They showed good character to get draw in Healy Park against Tyrone, they should have beat Galway and they defeated Derry.
I would not write them off at all.
The McKeever and Soupy factor
Ciaran McKeever will also add a physical dimension to their game. Cavan ran through them when they met in the National League, but they won't do that again as McKeever is a very good reader of the game, very solid and he is much better on the ball than a lot of people give him credit for. That solidity and experience was lacking on the night that they played.
Also, Stefan 'Soupy' Campbell has emerged into an outstanding player. He will be heavily watched by Cavan but in fairness to him no matter what the opposition throw at him he's able to respond with a consistency that he has developed.
Even if there are blanket defences he will still find a way through and his last two scores in the match against Fermanagh, both kicked from over 50 metres out, show that he is capable of great points, and he has an eye for goal too.
The Seanie Johnston fairytale could influence this game
Even though Cavan have yet to win silverware this year, it's harder to think of a greater fairytale than the return of Seanie Johnston to the fold. When you see players go to another county and come back it doesn't always go well but it's working for Seanie.
Two seasons ago I was manager of Cavan Gaels and we won the championship. Seanie Johnston was the most accurate forward in Cavan then - he got man of the match in the county final - and he still is now.
I was surprised that he wasn't brought in back then because he is a player that Cavan can't afford to do without. It's been a great turnaround in his career and I'm delighted for Johnston as he received his fair share of negative coverage over the years.
So, too, has the Cavan senior team for not following on from a prolific underage programme, but most of us in the game know that there is no guarantee of success just because you win at underage level.
Still, it was most disappointing that they would win four Ulster U21 titles in a row and not even make an appearance in an Ulster senior final. Not a very high percentage of players came through and the Cavan fans were very deflated with this. But they have had a good run in the league, Terry Hyland has changed their approach and they now feature more attack-minded players.
I think we'll see a great game. Cavan have strong ball-winners up front in Eugene Keating, Gearoid McKiernan and Dave Givney so they will try to move the ball much quicker into them. Let's see what Armagh have ready for them.
Take nothing for granted
Everyone else in the country - and beyond - might see London and Mayo as a foregone conclusion, but again I am not one of those. I don't think it is ever straightforward for any team in Ruislip where there will be a brilliant atmosphere baying for Mayo's blood.
The only thing that will hurt London before the game is that there is no way Mayo will be complacent. They were taken to extra-time by the Exiles in 2011 and they saw how Roscommon nearly exited the Connacht Championship at the hands of New York. Mayo to win, but after a battle.
Looking at Tipperary and Waterford, it's hard to see Tipp without 11 of the team that started last year's summer. And all of those factors that contributed to the list of absent players are a real leveller for the Tipp fans as they had a great squad of footballers and a very promising team.
But that has been decimated now, it plays into Waterford's hands and gives them a chance. I still think Tipp will win but it won't be simple.
As for Limerick and Clare, I was just delighted by the fact that that Gary Brennan and David Tubridy won the Division Three final at Croke Park. I watched those two when I was in charge of Fermanagh and they are two warriors that would make many teams. I love the style of football that they use and I would definitely fancy them to beat Limerick.
