Peter Canavan: Mayo games give Dublin the edge over Kerry
Friday 18 September 2015 10:01, UK
Like Kerry last year, Dublin's two games against Mayo gives them the edge in the All-Ireland SFC final, says Peter Canavan...
Sunday's All-Ireland final promises to be a terrific spectacle. A Dublin v Kerry final speaks for itself. There is great tradition and their battles down through the years have provided Gaels with so many great memories.
This weekend will be no different when it comes to the competitiveness of the two sides.
As I have stated many times before, the role of managers in the modern game is ever-increasing with regard to tactics, set plays, kickouts and use of the bench. The role Jim Gavin and Eamonn Fitzmaurice will play in determining Sunday's outcome is understated.
From a Dublin point of view, their gameplan will be predictable. They won't change their style of play or shape. They'll look to play short kickouts if possible and I do believe Gavin will resist the temptation to start Kevin McManamon, Michael Darragh Macauley or Alan Brogan.
While these three players all have claims for a starting place, they have performed very well when sprung from the bench. I don't think Gavin will change that winning formula.
The outcome will come down to fine margins. It could be a refereeing call, a moment of brilliance of a basic mistake; there is such a fine line between these two sides.
All the big decisions have to be made by Fitzmaurice and the Kerry management. The first one is whether to push up on the Dublin kickout. When Tyrone allowed Kerry to win their own kickouts it virtually took Anthony Maher and David Moran out of the game. They didn't have the same impact.
On the other hand, Dublin will be well aware that so many of their scores against Mayo came directly from their own kickouts. They are so adept at carrying the ball out from their full-back line.
Approach
Contrary to opinion in some quarters, I don't believe the game will be a shootout. Fitzmaurice will not be concerned as to how Kerry win the game, just as long as they do. He won't care if it's not a free-flowing encounter.
In fact, it'll favour Dublin if it turns into an end-to-end, high-scoring contest. They have the stronger runners and their proficiency up front has been very good.
Fitzmaurice certainly has the bigger calls to make, not only in Kerry's approach and how they take on Dublin, but also in player selection.
Kerry were conservative in their approach to last year's All-Ireland final and I expect more of the same on Sunday. It will not have escaped Fitzmaurice's attention that during the National League, Dublin struggled when faced with a mass defence against Derry, Tyrone and Monaghan.
Once Kerry lose possession, they will have players funnelling back to get into a strong defensive shape and to cut down the space in front of the Dublin forwards, in particular Paddy Andrews and Bernard Brogan.
Fitzmaurice will come up with a style of play that he wants to adhere to. It'll then come down to which players will perform the best in that style.
Will he start with his captain, Kieran Donaghy, in the knowledge that Paul Geaney appears to be playing the best football of his life?
There's also the dilemma facing him regarding Bryan Sheehan. Does he play him on the 45 knowing he is one of the finest free-takers in the game, or does he go with one of the best players of his generation in Colm Cooper? He will be concerned with the defensive qualities of both players.
Cork exposed Gooch when they ran from their half-back line in the Munster final, and it's likewise with Sheehan as defence is not the strongest part of his game.
The outcome will come down to fine margins. It could be a refereeing call, a moment of brilliance or a basic mistake; there is such a fine line between these two sides.
The advantage Dublin have, and it's the reason why I believe they'll win this game, is that the two Mayo games will have brought them on immensely. Kerry were in a similar position last year.
Yes, the Dubs have areas to address but they are clinical up front. If they can win enough possession they have strong runners around the middle sector and they are very economical up front.
Dublin have the hunger as last year's defeat to Donegal is still very much to the forefront of their minds. They won't be content until the Sam Maguire is back in the hands of Stephen Cluxton.
Watch the All-Ireland SFC final between Dublin and Kerry live on Sky Sports 3 HD on Sunday from 2.30pm. Catch the match for £6.99 on NOW TV. No contract.
