Friday 17 April 2020 09:55, UK
In the first of our data analytics series on the summer of sport - in partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) - we focus on The 145th Open at Royal Troon and how the world's leading golfers fare in links conditions.
Tournaments held on links courses often feature every seasonal weather condition imaginable, sometimes all on the same day, and the characteristics of certain courses can change significantly depending on Mother Nature.
Wind and rain is a main topic of discussion at every Open, none more so than at St Andrews last year when the third day's play was almost entirely wiped out as blustery conditions rendered the Old Course unplayable, forcing the tournament into a Monday finish for only the second time in its history.
But on the flip side, Royal Liverpool Golf Club was resplendent in bright sunshine and only light breezes for virtually 72 holes in 2006, with sunburned galleries watching Tiger Woods claiming his third Open title by two shots in a week in which he whipped the famous Tiger headcover off his driver just once on a course looking more brown than green.
Back at Hoylake eight years later, the weather was grey and overcast, although the worst of it was avoided by some well-judged tee-time tinkering as Rory McIlroy lifted the Claret Jug for the first time - a two-shot victory which prompted his golden run of form over the second half of 2014.
Just three years earlier, McIlroy got the rough end of the draw in miserable conditions on the Kent coast at Royal St George's, claiming he didn't like tournaments where "the outcome is predicted so much by the weather", and he didn't see the point in "changing your game for one week a year". His compatriot Darren Clarke had no complaints at the end of the week, taking advantage of a late slip by Dustin Johnson to cruise home by a three-stroke margin.
McIlroy also gained notoriety in the St Andrews Open of 2010, when he gorged himself on nine birdies in placid conditions on day one described as the friendliest the Old Course had ever witnessed. His 63 was the best of 73 sub-par opening rounds, but he was a later starter on Friday and had to battle winds gusting up to 40mph.
The 21-year-old was a figure frustration as he trudged off the 18th green to sign for an 80 on a day in which some players took close to seven-and-a-half hours to get round instead of the usual five, although there was an hour's delay when the high winds caused balls to start rolling off the greens.
The varied experiences of McIlroy help explain the complexities - good and bad - of links golf, but when you analyse the stats of the world's top players over the last five years, some of the findings are difficult to fathom.
Sky Sports and HPE selected a dozen of the most notable players on links courses that have hosted The Open, the Scottish Open, the Irish Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and found that eight of them enjoyed improved driving accuracy over their yearly average.
Eight of the 12 also hit more greens in regulation, yet only two - Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson -managed to bring down their overall scoring average. There you go - clear as mud!
But hang on. A quick glance at the putting statistics reveals a glaring discrepancy when we compare form on links greens to their prowess with the flat stick over the rest of the year. Every one of the dozen has a significantly higher average for putts per green in regulation on a links, and none of them can get under two putts per GIR.
The best modern professional golfer appears to have no difficulty in adapting their game in order to combat the elements. This has been made easier in recent years by the huge advances in equipment, with more forgiveness in the clubs and balls that fly longer and straighter with reduced side spin, while extra time on the range has clearly been put to good use.
However, the fact remains that greens on links course are harder to read in terms of both line and pace than their inland counterparts. The weather can play a minor factor, particularly if there is a stiff breeze to account for, but don't forget the majority of tournaments around the world are played on the most beautifully-manicured surfaces which make putting infinitely more manageable.
Take Dustin Johnson for example. He has averaged 1.77 putts per GIR since 2011, yet in the five Opens he has played in that period, he gives back more than a shot per round just with the flat stick at 2.88.
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Bubba Watson's putting statistics are almost identical, and the two-time Masters champion also lags behind his yearly average in every other category. His ability to shape the ball both ways, allied with an assured touch on and around the greens, should be ideally suited to links golf.
But in his five most recent appearances at The Open, the big-hitting, pink driver-wielding left-hander is a combined 27 over par, with no top-10s and a best finish of tied for 23rd at Royal Lytham in 2012.
Bizarrely, current world No 1 Jason Day is the only other player on our list who is over par on links courses for the last five years, although the popular Aussie was tied for the lead heading into the final round at St Andrews last year before a Monday 70 left him one shot shy of a play-off.
So who's at the other end of the links stats? Who is the player who most embraces the challenge of links golf, and taking on the elements that accompany it?
Over the last five years, it's hard to argue against Phil Mickelson, who created history in 2013 as the first man to win the Scottish Open and The Open back-to-back. The veteran claimed his fifth major title at Muirfield after producing one of the best Sunday back-nines in tournament history and deservedly got his hands on the Claret Jug at the 20th attempt.
In his previous 19 Open starts, Mickelson's Open record was poor for a man of his talents and boasted only two top-10 finishes - one of them being a third at this year's venue, Royal Troon, in 2004. But a final-day 66 which he described as "one of the best rounds of my career" got the job done by three shots at Muirfield, and he was the only player in the field to complete 72 holes under the card.
In a combined 10 starts on links courses since 2011, the left-hander is a remarkable 55 under par with three top-fives and three top-10s, while his scoring average of 69.36 is the best of the bunch while McIlroy (69.54) and Rickie Fowler (69.63) are the only others to average under 70 per round.
McIlroy is an impressive 44 under over eight tournaments, but he missed out on improving that line last year when his ill-timed ankle injury forced him to miss both the Scottish Open and his defence of the Claret Jug.
Perhaps the most consistent links player over the last five years has been Masters champion Danny Willett, who is 58 under over 11 tournaments, but he has not finished higher than a tie for fifth in the 2012 Scottish Open at Castle Stuart.
The only other winners on our elite list are Fowler and Justin Rose. Fowler played one of the shots of the season last year when he knocked a wedge to a foot for a winning birdie in the Scottish Open at glorious Gullane, while Rose played sublime golf to claim a two-shot win at Royal Aberdeen the year before.
Fowler bucks the dominant trend of improved driving accuracy, but he hits a handful of extra greens and his links scoring average of 69.63 compares favourably with his overall 70.26 - a difference bettered only by Mickelson.
When we look at stand-out discrepancies in the data, arguably the most surprising is Jordan Spieth's putting. The 2015 player of the year is widely-regarded as the best in the world with the wand in hand, but taking almost two-and-a-half putts per GIR is not going to get it done in The Open.
Form on the greens, or lack thereof, has been the Achilles heel for Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott in particular, while Willett (2.08) and Garcia's fellow major nearly-man Lee Westwood (2.09) have come the closest to averaging under two putts per GIR.
So what are the conclusions from all of this? Of course, the changeable weather conditions can have an impact on the outcome of a tournament, as McIlroy alluded to back in 2011. There will be the odd occasion when it will be flat calm for half the field and blowing a gale for the others.
Players will spend hours on the range practising their knock-down 140-yard six-irons into the breeze, the bump and runs and the art of landing an approach 30 yards short of the green and threading it through the opening towards the target.
They will examine their course-management more closely and take a lot more irons off the tee, knowing that finding a typical fairway bunker on a links course will more than likely lead to a dropped shot.
But after examining all the relevant information, the destination of The Open will not necessarily be decided by the best driver, the best iron player or the best escape artist. To win on a links, you have to think well, and putt well.
Golf … it's a simple game!
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