Sunday 16 October 2016 07:21, UK
Richard Boxall looks back on the third day of the British Masters and feels Alex Noren's sky-high confidence will lead him to his third European Tour victory of the season at The Grove.
Alex Noren was excellent today. A 65 with no bogeys, although he had to work quite hard to save par a few times. He's had two wins already this year and is up to ninth on the Race to Dubai, so he's full of confidence.
Armed with a three-shot lead going into the final round, he'll be a heavy favourite to pick up win number three. The way he's playing, he's not going to come back to the field. So for anybody to catch up with him, they're going to have to go very low on Sunday.
Richard Bland is three back, and there's a bunch of guys on 12 under that, realistically, need to shoot at least a 67 to have any chance. I can't see Noren being over par for his final round. The chasing pack will hope he makes a few mistakes, but the way he's been playing, I can't see it.
The opening hole is a reasonably short par-four, and the second is a very reachable par-five which has been the second-easiest hole this week, playing to an average of 4.6. If he gets through those in one under, he'll be well set.
Graeme McDowell made a great move today, three straight birdies around the turn and all of a sudden he was one off the lead. But he struggled to get the ball close to the hole after that and it puts a lot of pressure on your putting. And when he did hit it close, he didn't take advantage.
It was a shame to take the gloss off a good day by three-putting the last to drop a shot, but saving par is tricky when you knock it in the bunker up the 18th.G-Mac is now six behind and it's a massive ask to come back from there.
Lee Westwood is one shot better off, but he'll need to get off to a flyer to put the pressure on. If he, or anyone else on 10 on 11 under, can get to four under after six or seven holes, there's still a chance.
The crowd following the last group today was huge, mainly because Andrew Johnston was among them. He started the day one off the lead, but unfortunately he just had one of those days. He was two over after six holes and had to wait until the 11th before he got his first birdie, but then he double-bogeyed the next.
Beef got round in 73 and he's now eight shots behind, so I'd be shocked if he came away from here with a win. But he's still living up to his reputation, and he remains a firm favourite with the fans.
And despite having a poor round, he was still happy to take part in the live Masterclass afterwards, and that shows what kind of character he is.
Marcel Siem is 89th on the Race to Dubai after a disappointing season, but what a finish from him today. Five under for the last six holes for a 65 threw him into the mix. He's five behind, but it's always tough to follow up a great round with another. When you finish like that, you just want to carry on playing straight into round four.
But Noren's finish was almost as impressive, with birdies at 15, 17 and 18 rounding off a superb day for the Swede.
Highlight of the day
Noren's second shot to the 12th was incredible. Horrible stance in the bunker, ball way above his feet, water short of the green, but he knocked it to 15 feet. And that was moments after he had seen Beef put his second in the drink.
I'm not sure there would be too many players who would have taken that shot on to be honest. When you're standing on a slope in the sand, if your feet move just a bit through the shot, it goes very wrong.
That shot was brilliant, and a measure of Noren's strength, and also his confidence right now. For me, it looks very likely that he'll be picking up win number three of the year on Sunday.
