Masters betting guide

Dave Tindall's in-depth preview and best bets for this week's Masters tournament at Augusta.

Dave Tindall's in-depth preview and best bets for this week's Masters tournament at Augusta National

The anticipation ahead of every Masters is always through the roof. Eight months have passed since the previous summer's USPGA so there's a huge thirst to see some major golf. And what better place to witness it than the beautiful and majestic Augusta National - the course we feel we know better than any other in tour. As usual, the storylines have been building since the 2013 season got under way and with Tiger Woods heading to Augusta with three wins under his belt already this year he's the clear favourite. But just when it seemed there was no chance of the fantasy final round last-group pairing of Woods and McIlroy - talked so much about 12 months ago - it's back on again after young Rory gave his ailing confidence a huge boost with an excellent second place in Houston on Sunday. McIlroy was denied by Scotland's Martin Laird who became the first non-American to win on the PGA Tour in 2013. So will that win spark a surge from the Brits and Europeans? Or does this one have Tiger's name all over it? The course The 7,445 yard par 72 Augusta National starts with the hardest hole on the course (the 1st averaged 4.39 in 2012 and 10 yards have been added this year!) and then offers some immediate respite with the par five second (the easiest hole last year, 4.64). There are birdies and eagles to be had but bogeys, doubles and worse lurk too. Length is a definite advantage although shorter hitters can occasionally buck the trend such as Mike Weir in 2003 and Zach Johnson in 2007. This year the course looks in immaculate condition and, as usual, leaving uphill putts on the fast, undulating greens is a huge benefit. The weather It's been dry in the build-up to the tournament and hot, sunny conditions should greet the players for Thursday's start. However, t-storms could hit on Thursday afternoon and could be severe overnight. Friday could see more morning showers before clearing in the afternoon. The weekend should see the good weather return. Last year - Bubba Watson Watson struck a blow for the big-hitters-thrive-at-Augusta argument last year and he topped the Driving Distance stats for the week. However, his iron play was also of high quality as he finished fourth for the week in Greens In Regulation. The 'X' factor - so prevalent in past Masters winners - was his ability to conjur up some magic when it mattered most. He did that in the play-off with Louis Oosthuizen when hooking an amazing 52-degree gap wedge out of the trees from right of the fairway and onto the green. Oosthuizen had led early in the final round after an incredible albatross two at the par five second and he, along with Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar and Lee Westwood all left the course with a feeling of what might have been. The leading contenders (and Sky Bet odds) Tiger Woods (9/2): It seems everything points to four-time Masters champ Tiger this year. He's won three times in the build-up - all at venues where he's won numerous times. And, helped by a 30-minute lesson from Steve Stricker, he looks the world's best putter again - a notion backed up by his No.1 ranking in Strokes-Gained Putting. But one question has to be asked about a player so short in the betting. Why hasn't Tiger won at Augusta since 2005? Looking at his stats for his four Masters wins (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005), his Driving Distance ranking for the week in those wins was 1st, 1st, 6th and 4th. In the last four years he's not been ranked better than 20th in DD so, in length terms, he doesn't have the advantage over his rivals or the course itself that he once did. He can still give it a healthy tonk but history says he has to get his ball out there to be at his most effective at Augusta National.
Latest form: 1-1-37-L32
Masters form: 40-4-4-6
Georgia form: 8-40-MC-4
World ranking: 1 Rory McIlroy (9/1): In the last nine months Rory has been everything from an eight-shot major winner to a little boy lost, seemingly the unwitting subject of a morality tale showing why you should never switch clubs to make a fast buck. McIlroy, of course, took a four-shot lead into the final round of the 2011 Masters before famously imploding and it's largely forgotten that he was tied third at halfway last year. His game really does look made for Augusta but, despite his morale-boosting tied second in Texas on Sunday, do we fully trust him after his rollercoaster start to 2013? One interesting stat is that prior to his two eight-shot major wins (2011 US Open and 2012 USPGA), the Northern Irishman had finished in the top five in his previous start. He ticks that same box again this week and feels his game is right where he wants it again.
Latest form: 2-45-8-WD
Masters form: 40-15-MC-20
Georgia form: 10-40-64-15
World ranking: 2

Phil Mickelson (11/1): The left-hander has won three of the last nine Masters compared to Tiger's one in that same period so, on that logic, he deserves to be favourite on the course he loves more than any other. A fourth Green Jacket looked on the cards last year when he shot a third round 66 to book himself a place in the final group but a triple bogey (his second of the week) at four was too much even for Mickelson. This year, like in many recent ones, he's veered between brilliant and ordinary but he does seem agitated that he didn't have his usual Masters warm-up. Phil has always played the week before but didn't this year as he felt the Valero Texas Open course was unsuitable for trying to hone his game for Augusta.
Latest form: 16-MC-3-21
Masters form: 3-27-1-5
Georgia form: 15-3-10-19
World ranking: 9 Justin Rose (16/1): While there are negatives surrounding many of Tiger's challengers this year, it's hard to find a minus next to Rose's name beyond the fact that he hasn't yet won a major. However, he's now banked a top five in each after last year's third in the USPGA and The Masters has always seemed a great fit for him. He was the halfway leader in 2004, one shot back teeing off at the 71st hole in 2007, 11th and eighth the last two years and he's led the tournament three times after day one. In 2013 Rose has been a model of consistency with two second places and just one finish (16th) outside the top eight in his strokeplay starts. One other stat worth noting is that he's in the top 10 for Driving Distance this year (averaging over 300 yards).
Latest form: 2-8-4-L32
Masters form: 8-11-20-36
Georgia form: 8-40-MC-4
World ranking: 3 Charl Schwartzel (22/1): The South African produced a record four closing birdies to win the Green Jacket in brilliant style in 2011 so, in this his fourth Masters, can he now turn himself into a regular contender after a 30th and 50th either side? It took until the back of 2012 for Schwartzel to win again but he did so in emphatic fashion by recording 11-shot and 12-shot victories back-to-back. He carried that red-hot form into the start of 2013 when just missing out on a play-off on debut at Riviera although since then he's just started to cool off. However, before his Masters win two years ago his form figures going to Augusta were 30-47-24-14 so maybe he's about to produce another spectacular high.
Latest form: 22-4-16-9
Masters form: 50-1-30
Georgia form: 50-12-1-30
World ranking: 15 Lee Westwood (25/1): The 2010 Masters is regarded as Westwood's big near-miss at Augusta but former caddie Billy Foster actually reckons last year's was even more galling. It's a fair point given that Westwood missed numerous short putts and fell short of the play-off by just two shots. For a player whose short game isn't considered good enough for Augusta, Westwood's Masters record is pretty darn impressive (3rd, 11th, 2nd the last three years) so it's dangerous to write him off. He hasn't really hit the heights this season but a 10th on his last start in Houston was a nice warm-up and his current rankings in the Sand Saves (15th) and Scrambling (20th) stats are signs of a sharper short game although his 122nd in Strokes Gained Putting has to be a concern.
Latest form: 10-63-25-9
Masters form: 3-11-2-43
Georgia form: 30-3-8-11
World ranking: 13 Keegan Bradley (22/1): The American has already won a major in Georgia after re-writing the record books by winning the 2011 USPGA. That was his first ever major start so there's no good reason why he couldn't win at Augusta in just his second Masters - after all, Charl Schwartzel pulled off that feat just two years ago. Bradley, like Schwartzel, put down a marker on debut when closing with a 69 to finish tied 27th and since then he's gone on to finish third in defence of his USPGA crown and also make a huge impression on his Ryder Cup debut. Add in a run of four straight top 10s in March and an ability to blast it off the tee (he's 9th in Driving Distance) and Bradley has to be considered a serious runner.
Latest form: 10-3-7-4
Masters form: 27
Georgia form: 23-27-11-1
World ranking: 11 Adam Scott (25/1): The hugely-talented Australian has taken a surprisingly long time to establish himself as a consistent major contender but now he's there. He went extremely close to winning the Green Jacket in 2011 while he famously blew victory in last year's Open when looking home and hosed with a few holes to play. Scott says he now has a "real level of comfort" with Augusta National and that's borne out by his recent results here which show an eighth and a second in the last two years. He's fresh after just two starts in March (3rd at Cadillac, 30th at Tampa) although his 153rd place in both Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation is surprising.
Latest form: 30-3-L64-10
Masters form: 8-2-18-MC
Georgia form: 19-8-6-7
World ranking: 7 Best of the rest: Matt Kuchar (35/1): Americans, quite simply, are excellent at winning majors and it's highly possible that the next cab off the rank is Kuchar. In the last few years he's won the 2010 PGA Tour Money List, landed the prestigious Players Championship at Sawgrass in 2012 and captured this year's WGC-Accenture Match Play. In short, he's an elite player who still goes off at bigger odds than a British player with less credentials. Last year he made a huge run at the Green Jacket after tying for the lead on Sunday with a brilliant eagle at 15 and, although he came up short (tied third), it proved that he has the tools to be a Masters winner. Dark horses Bill Haas (80/1): Haas has hardly hit the heights at Augusta National so far. But he's made three cuts out of three, was 11th going into the final round on debut in 2010 and says the course "fits his eye". In 2013 he's been quietly piecing together an excellent string of results together and has made the top 10 in five of his last six strokeplay events. He's also ranked number one in greens in regulation so 80/1 really does look a big price on a player who won the FedEx Cup in 2012 by landing the Tour Championship in this very State. Fredrik Jacobson (125/1): The dishevelled Swede is 8th in Strokes Gained Putting and fourth in Scoring Average this year, the latter due to a run of six events in which he's made the top 25 in each (three have been top 10s). Jacobson looks a good fit for Augusta given his ability to save par or make birdie from unorthodox positions and it's no surprise to see that in his three Masters he's twice finished in the top 20. Also has four top 20s in his last seven major starts. Conclusion It's a no-brainer that Tiger Woods has a golden chance of ending his major drought but at 3/1 I was happy to leave him. However, the second place of Rory McIlroy last week has seen Tiger pushed out to 9/2 and at that price I'll pull the trigger. It's almost a guarantee that he'll challenge heavily and the three victories he's banked this year have really got him back into the winning groove. His putting looks majestic again so make Tiger a big part of your staking plan. As at Bay Hill, Justin Rose could be the one to give Woods most to think about and the Englishman said in his press conference on Tuesday: "I always scripted it that between 30 and 40 was going to be my prime." The average age for a Masters winner is 32 and Rose is bang on that number. In superb form this year, this could be a life-changing week for him. It's easy to get carried away with the importance of making birdies and eagles on the par fives at Augusta but, just as crucial, is keeping errors off the card. Bubba managed it last year and so have all recent champions. It's why two triples last year stopped Phil Mickelson winning again. Therefore, it's worth checking the PGA Tour's Bogey Avoidance stats which show Bill Haas at 2 and Matt Kuchar at 8 (Tiger is a pretty solid 24th while Rose isn't listed although was 4th in this category last year). Haas and Kuchar have racked up some big wins in the last few years so look ready to take the next step and bag a major. Haas, in particular, looks value at 80/1 to follow in the footsteps of his Great Uncle Bob Goalby and win a Green Jacket. For a wildcard, throw in Freddie Jacobson at 125s. He's shown some excellent form this year and has the short game to thrive at Augusta. Mickelson, McIlroy, Bradley and Snedeker all came close to selection but I'll go with the following five.... Best bets 5pts win Tiger Woods at 9/2
2pts e.w. Justin Rose at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 35/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Bill Haas at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Fredrik Jacobson at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)