Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson favourites at Valero Texas Open

Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson head the betting for the Valero Texas Open and both arrive at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course on the back of a win last time out.

Spieth is a Dallas native who will enjoy the support of the home crowds. He also has three appearances here under his belt, albeit a best of 10th makes 8/1 quotes hard to justify even if he is clearly an outstanding talent more than capable of winning this title with ease.

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Johnson on the other hand will be making his debut in the event and, while he is a proven winner whose form since returning from a six-month break has been outstanding, at 9/1 he can probably be taken on with a degree of confidence.

The reason for this is that the Texas Open has provided some huge shocks since it switched to San Antonio in 2010. Inaugural winner Adam Scott is obviously an exception, but even he was searching for form at the time. Subsequent wins for Brendan Steele, Ben Curtis, Martin Laird and Steven Bowditch were all out of the blue and quite how the latter won remains a mystery.

So, we can afford to take a few chances and top of the list is Danny Lee.

This New Zealander was meant to be one of the world’s best by now, having become at the time the youngest ever US Amateur champion before winning on the European Tour aged just 19 the following year.

But while disappointing to an extent that he’s yet to make a splash on the PGA Tour, players progress at different rates and there’s no doubt in my mind that the talent remains for him to win at this sort of level, particularly when the focus of the favourites may well be on Augusta.

Lee is also a Texas native – just like last year’s winner, Bowditch – and his recent form includes seventh place at the Valspar followed by a solid 17th at Bay Hill, a performance which saw him shoot 64 in round two.

Here at the Oaks Course he sat second after round one last year before inexplicably missing the cut, but that at least means he hasn’t been on the radar of the layers and therefore represents good value. He won in Texas on the Web.com Tour and also went close at the Greg Norman-designed El Camaleon late last year.

A glance at the roll-of-honour at the Oaks Course suggests that long, straight drivers are favoured and that makes sense given that it was designed by Norman with help from Sergio Garcia – there are few who drive the ball better than those two.

With that in mind, John Peterson can build on a solid start to the season which has seen him make the cut in 10 of his 12 starts.

Born in Fort Worth and now residing in Texas once more, Peterson should enjoy being home for the week and at 24th in total driving so far this season, he can be expected to find these narrow fairways and avoid the trouble which saw Kevin Na make a 16 a few years ago.

Peterson is also inside the top 25 on the PGA Tour in scrambling and would’ve been close to the top 20 at Bay Hill last week but for finding water on the final hole of the tournament, so to my mind he looks set for a big week very soon. The Oaks Course looks a good opportunity for him.

Given the Norman links and the fact that there have been two Australian winners of this event in five years, getting another Aussie on-side is a good policy and I’ll take Geoff Ogilvy at three-figure prices.

The 37-year-old hasn’t done much since winning in Reno last year but at least arrives in Texas having made three cuts in a row, and his form of 23-11 here is pretty strong.

Last year, Ogilvy ranked second in greens hit in this event despite having been struggling with his game for some time, so there’s every indication that this layout helps him produce something close to his best golf.

Cameron Tringale is one of the more obvious outsiders this week having twice been inside the top 10 here. He merits an each-way bet, along with Charles Howell III who was eighth on his sole start in the event, has been hitting the ball brilliantly and arrives on a string of good efforts.