Turkish Airlines Open: A preview and best bets for this week's European Tour event

Leg three of the European Tour's four-tournament Final Series takes us to Turkey for the second staging of the Turkish Airlines Open.

Once more, the event will be held over The Montgomerie Maxx course at Royal Antalya. Opened six years ago and located close to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, the 7,132-yard par 72 is overlooked by the Taurus Mountains, has above average-sized greens, well-contoured fairways and is very tree-lined.

Last year, on a course softened by a first-day downpour, a high-quality field made hay. Victor Dubuisson held his nerve down the stretch to win his first European Tour title with 24-under par. The next four home were Jamie Donaldson (-22), Justin Rose (-20), Tiger Woods (-20) and Ian Poulter (-19). Henrik Stenson was a shot further back.

There's no Tiger this time and Rory McIlroy (still way clear at the top of the Race To Dubai standings) also sits it out again but there are eight members of Paul McGinley's European Ryder Cup winning side taking part.

Dubuisson, despite pulling out of the WGC-HSBC Champions with a back injury, is here to defend while Donaldson, Poulter, Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood and Stephen Gallacher also line up.

Garcia and Stenson share favouritism with Sky Bet.

Last year - path to victory

Dubuisson hit just 28 out of 52 fairways on his way to 24-under so finding the fairways is hardly imperative here. The Frenchman was fourth in greens in regulation (62 out of 72), second in Scrambles and racked up a joint-best 28 birdies alongside runner-up Jamie Donaldson. He was also second in Par 5 scoring (-14) - an even bigger factor than normal as there are five of them (also five par 3s).

Race To Dubai

Four players - McIlroy, Donaldson, Garcia and Marcel Siem - could still scoop the jackpot although McIlroy will be incredibly hard to catch. Donaldson, Garcia and Siem must win this week and also next week's DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates to have a chance. It sounds far-fetched but it's worth remembering that Billy Horschel won the final two events of the PGA Tour season to capture the FedEx Cup. However, McIlroy would eliminate any doubt and be uncatchable by finishing fifth or better in Dubai.

The top 60 available in the standings at the end of this week's event will secure a place in Dubai next week. Once there, they will fight it out for a place in the top 15, who will share the $5 million bonus pool.

Conclusion

Joost Luiten sits 12th in the Race To Dubai after another excellent season.

The Dutchman won the Wales Open in September and his form over the last seven events reads: 4-5-1-MC-3-13-28.

A poor opening round 77 at the HSBC Champions last week cost him any chance there although rounds of 71-69-71 repaired some of the damage and got him to tied 28th. The week before that he'd shot middle rounds of 69-64 to finish 13th in the BMW Masters.

Luiten has carded either a 64 or a 65 in four of his last six strokeplay tournaments so is very adept at shooting low scores. It means this track should really suit (a second place on another Montgomerie layout, Carton House, in the 2013 Irish Open adds further confidence).

Last year it took him a couple of rounds to find his feet here but weekend rounds of 65-67 (-12) elevated him to tied 18th.

The Dutchman knows how to win (he has four European Tour successes including three in the last two seasons) so the 28/1 is fair enough.

Back in 2013, Pablo Larrazabal endured a run of eight missed cuts in nine events. The one positive in that run was a fourth place at Carton House - as mentioned above, another Montgomerie track where aggression is rewarded.

The Spaniard didn't get anything going here 12 months ago (tied 53rd) but he does blow hot and cold and there's always a chance he could click if presented with suitable conditions.

"Good morning from Turkey... 2 weeks to the end of the season... Last week was a good one, next 2 will be better... Lets finish strong..," he said on Twitter on Tuesday morning.

The good week he referred to was a 14th in the HSBC where he shot seven-under on the weekend - two shots better than eventual winner Bubba Watson. "That was the way to finish a golf tournament... Very happy with the result over the weekend," he tweeted.

Larrazabal, a winner in Abu Dhabi earlier this year, is worth a roll of the dice at 80/1.

Since winning the Portugal Masters, Alexander Levy has finished second and 14th in the two play-off events. 

Of course, he should have won the BMW in China but succumbed to the windy conditions on the final day and saw his four-shot lead vanish before losing in a play-off.

However, with the forecast set fare this week, Levy should have the perfect conditions to go on one of his birdie blitzes again.

Take him each-way at 30/1.

Best bets

2pts e.w. Joost Luiten at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Pablo Larrazabal at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Alexander Levy at 30/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)