Tiger Woods lifted the Claret Jug the last time the Open was held at Hoylake - but isn't among Rob's tips this week

The Open returns to Hoylake this week and we should be in for an intriguing contest at the Royal Liverpool Golf Club.

When the tournament was last at this venue, in 2006, the whole course was blonde. There wasn’t a piece of green grass on it. The course was rock hard and the ball was running miles, bouncing along those fairways.

I don’t think it’s going to be soft this year but it’ll certainly be greener and play longer. And it’s unlikely anyone will do what Tiger Woods did and shoot 18-under to win!

There will be more interesting choices from the tee boxes, too. The fairway bunkers at Hoylake are one-shot penalties and the players will be desperate to avoid them. You’re not going in there and whipping it onto the green with a five iron.

The other thing to factor in is the weather. In 2006 the weather was unbelievable for four days, but the course is right on the end of the Wirral so you’ve got to think they’ll get some wind this week.

I haven’t seen any nasty stuff coming in on the forecast, though, and, if the weather is reasonable, I reckon the winning score will be double-digit-under.

The great thing about the Open, though, is its unpredictability and with such a long playing day, the draw can be crucial.

With all that in mind, here are my top five contenders for the Claret Jug…

Rory McIlroy

Age: 25

World Ranking: 8

Best Open result: T3 (2010)

Last year’s finish: Cut

Sky Bet odds: 16/1

It will be great to have someone from these shores win and Rory’s form is there. However, it’s the one rogue round out of four that’s letting him down at the moment. He’s something like 50 under for Thursdays, 19 or 20 under for Saturdays and Sundays and nine over for Fridays this year. His Friday averages are bad. He’s had plenty of low scores, that’s not the issue. It’s not his birdie count that’s the issue, either. It’s that one bad round. I don’t know why it happens but it happens a lot on the Friday. He’s had a lot of really good weekends to come from deep in the pack to come top 10 – even last week he shot 68, 67. If he can temper the bad one, the rest of his game suggests he’s not going to be far away. In fact, if he shoots level par on Friday he wins the Open.

Justin Rose

Age: 33

World Ranking: 3

Best Open result: T4 (1998)

Last year’s finish: Cut

Sky Bet odds: 12/1 (fav)

Justin Rose produced a great performance to win the Scottish Open. He’s won his last two events now, after scooping the Quicken Loans National at Congressional in America a couple of weeks ago. He’s changed his way of preparing for the Open, copying the Phil Mickelson plan which Lefty used to win the Claret Jug last year – and so far he’s got 50% of it right. He must go to Hoylake really believing he’s got a chance and there aren’t many players who will do that. He’s already a major champion, so knows what that feels like, he’s had a couple of close runs in the Open – although he’s not been great every year – and I think this year could be a good one for him.  

Adam Scott

Age: 33

World Ranking: 1

Best Open result: 2nd (2012)

Last year’s finish: T3

Sky Bet odds: 16/1 

Adam Scott’s consistency through the year has been tremendous. He hasn’t played that much -  it’s amazing how little he’s played actually – but he got a win at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial and finished ninth at the US Open, as well as picking up a couple of top fives. He’s also a guy who feels he’s owed an Open Championship. He should have won at Royal Lytham in 2012 when Ernie Els stole in the back door after Adam dropped four shots in the last four, handing it on a plate to Els. I look for a guy who thinks he’s owed something and I think Adam will have that feeling at Hoylake.

Zach Johnson

Age: 38

World Ranking: 14

Best Open result: T6 (2013)

Last year’s finish: T6

Sky Bet odds: 50/1 

Zach Johnson finished second at the John Deere Classic last week. It’s absolutely nothing like an Open test but he’s played in 13 of those in a row now and, for him, playing there then getting on the plane and going to the Open makes sense. He was tied-ninth in 2012 and tied-sixth last year so he’s got a style which is really good for links turf. He hit all 18 greens in regulation on Sunday, and 13 out of 14 fairways, so I give him a chance.

Rickie Fowler

Age: 25

World Ranking: 25

Best Open result: T5 (2011)

Last year’s finish: Cut

Sky Bet odds: 30/1 

For an American, I think Rickie Fowler really gets links golf and he’ll be one to watch this week. Fowler finished top 10 in Scotland over the weekend so is clearly hitting form at the right time. I saw him play some incredible golf back in 2011, when Darren Clarke won at Royal St George's. On the Friday the weather was really horrid and he was out in the middle of it and played some phenomenal golf. That shows he’s a man who can adapt to the conditions and I’m intrigued to see how he goes at Hoylake.

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