UFC 202: Can Conor McGregor secure revenge over Nate Diaz?

Sky Bet provide analysis and predictions for UFC 202 as Conor McGregor looks to avenge his defeat to Nate Diaz...

There seems to be one recurring theme between both camps during the build up to the highly anticipated rematch between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz - preparation.

Diaz's boxing coach has said being able to train day and night has made a big difference to the UFC veteran as he approaches his 30th professional bout.

Following his first UFC defeat, McGregor made some drastic changes during this fight camp. Rather than spending two weeks in Vegas ahead of a fight, this time he flew out early and converted an empty warehouse into a specifically tailored workout space.

It is in this private facility that McGregor has drafted in some new faces after Diaz berated his weak training partners prior to their first bout.

Having lost the fight on the ground, McGregor first brought in some more experienced and heavier jiu-jitsu guys.

Next through the door was Conor Wallace; a six-time all Ireland boxing champion who possesses a skill set almost identical to Diaz in that he is a tall, long-ranged southpaw. Wallace claimed that "McGregor was a very fast learner and got better at adapting to his style after each round". 

Fight analysis

Wallace's involvement in McGregor's fight camp came after some big left hands in the first round left the Stockton native relatively unharmed.

The Irishman seemed to underestimate how much easier it would be for a welterweight like Diaz to absorb his shots compared to the usual featherweight opponents he has dominated throughout his UFC career so far.

Despite this, coach John Kavanagh actually expects McGregor to step on the scales at 165lbs at Friday's weigh in, well below the 170lbs limit. This comes after he cleaned up his fighter's diet which is now built purely for athletic performance.

His opponent's natural weight could be anywhere up to 200lbs, despite Diaz's sheepish claim in Wednesday's press conference that he was currently sitting at 175lbs.

Round 1

McGregor's speed and footwork saw him dart in and out of Diaz's long range and after landing consistently after the first few minutes, McGregor who is used to finishing opponents, clearly thought that Diaz was ready to go down, as he began to wind up his left hand for the big finishing punch. However, in doing so he lost his usual smooth flawless technique and was found wildly over-reaching, with each attempted strike significantly draining his energy. By the time the bell rang for the end of the round, McGregor was gasping for air as he slumped onto his stool.

Round 2

McGregor never looked in trouble in the first round and was able to evade Diaz's strikes. However, McGregor continued to swing wildly with a complete disregard for rhythm and as fatigue kicked in, he began to eat punches. Kavanagh said that when midway through the second round Diaz hit McGregor with a right jab, followed by a big left straight, it was the first time in ten years of coaching the Irish superstar that he had ever seen his legs wobbled. He was hurt and exhausted and within a minute it was all over as Diaz locked in the rear naked choke and McGregor tapped.

Prediction

Despite the cut above his eye, Diaz wasn't hurt by the countless punches he took from McGregor for one-and-a-half rounds. McGregor's fighting style is perfect for smaller orthodox fighters but it doesn't suit a tall, southpaw such as Diaz. However, everything suggests that McGregor's fight camp this time will have allowed him to refine his game plan and adapt to his opponent.

If McGregor lands as often as he did in round one of the previous bout whilst remaining in control for three-plus rounds, then even the durable Diaz will eventually go down, allowing the favourite to finish with a flurry of punches on the mat. My first bet is going to be McGregor to win by KO/TKO in Round 4 at 16/1.

If it goes to a final round, I expect that McGregor will be either 4-0 or 3-1 up, having been too quick and elusive for Diaz, with the American doing everything in his power to take the fight to the mat and secure the submission. Fifth round finishes are a rarity, with less than five per cent of all UFC fights ending in the final round. I am also going to have a bet on McGregor to win on points, available at 13/2 on Sky Bet.

In the first fight I also favoured McGregor but knew that Diaz had the stronger ground game and therefore I tipped up a 40/1 winner of Diaz to win by submission in the second round for those who were expecting an upset. Despite McGregor claiming that his jiu-jitsu is much improved since training with experienced and heavier fighters, Diaz still has the ability to take it to the ground at any moment and submit the Irishman once more. Therefore, my cover bet will be for Diaz to win by submission at 5/2 with Sky Bet.