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Saturday 13 April 2019 11:33, UK
Joel Embiid's health concerns and quality of Nets guards D'Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie leave Brooklyn sensing the chance to upset the Philadelphia 76ers, writes Sky Sports NBA analyst Mark Deeks.
When we last looked at the Brooklyn Nets, we found a team mired in a brutal piece of scheduing at a time when they could afford their rivals no breathing space.
At that time, the Nets were ever so slightly ahead of the rest of the five-strong chasing pack for the final three Eastern Conference playoff seedings, yet they had by far the most brutal run-in still to come.
The five clear-cut tier one teams in the East throughout this season have been the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, and Indiana Pacers; and in their last seven games, Brooklyn had to play all of them, including playing the NBA's best, Bucks, twice.
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That stretch came immediately on the back of a six-game West Coast trip playing the Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz, and Oklahoma City Thunder, an incredibly tough stretch of road games for so late in the season.
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And yet overcome it, they did. Indeed, now set to make their first playoff appearance for four years, the Nets have ridden a 14-game turnaround from last season's 28-54 campaign all the way up to the sixth seed, a 42-40 record, and a match-up against a 76ers team against whom they split the regular season series 2-2.
They must surely sense a legitimate chance at the upset, and see it as the next logical step in their development.
Despite their mid-season acquisitions of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, the 76ers have some holes in their roster unbecoming of a de facto contender. Indeed, it is because of those trades and the accompanying loss of depth required to make them that this is the case, and the resultant shortcomings lead to exploitable weaknesses on the court.
In particular, the Sixers have been troubled for much - if not all - of the season by opposing ball handlers. Checking aggression at the point of attack has been the problem all season; as versatile as Ben Simmons is defensively, the size that gives him that versatility also makes him an awkward fit as a full-time defender of the position he plays offensively.
JJ Redick at shooting guard cannot do it, either, and for all of Joel Embiid's defensive excellence, he is far more effective around the basket than when being asked to switch. Off the bench, TJ McConnell has good instincts but not one physical advantage to do much about them, and with Landry Shamet traded, guard depth is sparse.
It is therefore troubling that the Nets are led by a dual point guard core attack of D'Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie. Russell, in particular, has had a strong season, becoming an All-Star and a game-changing scorer whose inconsistencies and overall mediocre efficiency numbers should not obscure the unstoppable streaks he sometimes gets on.
Dinwiddie is even further improved from last year's Most Improved Player runner-up campaign, becoming quite the solid all-around guard to go along with his size and clutch three-point shooting.
Beyond that, Philadelphia must also address concerns about the lack of multi-positional outside shooting and reliable depth, particularly on the wings. Playing rotations invariably tighten in postseason play, and 76ers head coach Brett Brown has himself already said he expects to play only eight or nine players from here on out, yet it is not immediately obvious who the three bench players will be.
The 76ers will go in particularly short at the small forward and shooting guard positions, given that Furkan Korkmaz has been injured (and is unreliable when healthy), James Ennis still is injured, Johnathan Simmons has provided little, and both Shake Milton and Haywood Highsmith are ineligible for the postseason.
On the plus side, the Nets do not have spacing options themselves at the five spot. Starting center Jarrett Allen is nothing more than an occasional corner jump shooter and almost never handles the ball up top, while primary reserve Ed Davis' game is built around his workmanlike play near the basket rather than any perimeter skill.
In last year's playoffs, Al Horford of the Celtics proved to be a hugely tough match-up for Embiid and the 76ers out on the perimeter, dragging the team's best defender to spots he defends the worst, and forcing a variety of switches and reassignments that the plethora of Celtics' offensive weapons took advantage of. Brooklyn, however, do not have the personnel to do the same.
That same center pairing of Allen and Davis will struggle to guard Embiid on the interior. Allowing Embiid to go off in the post (especially considering he continues to pass out of it) and hoping to contain everyone else from joining in is a strategy of sorts, particularly given the spotty shooting around him.
Yet to allow such a significant disadvantage on purpose cannot be healthy, and the frontcourt mismatch is projected to be more in favour of Philadelphia than the backcourt one is for Brooklyn. With the exception of the beefed-up Davis, Brooklyn's front court is not a big, strong, or deep one.
Embiid's health, therefore, will play the biggest role in determining the ebbs, flows, and outcome of this series. All season long, the 76ers have been plagued by significant struggles whenever they are without Embiid - compare simply their 43-21 record with him to the 8-10 record without him - and they are particularly unable to paper over the cracks defensively. They are a shallow super team, if such a thing exists.
Philadelphia are heavily reliant on Embiid for defense and Redick for shooting in a way that always places things one injury or bout of foul trouble from being in the balance, thus creating first-round upset potential against an upstart like the Nets, who have a clear idea of what they like to do.
The Nets' defensive scheme is designed to give up plenty of three-point looks to opponents - last in opponent total two-point attempts, ninth in three-pointers - but not open looks, giving up only a 34.1 per cent mark from outside, the third-best mark in the league.
Sustained by the ever-brilliant shooting of Redick and buoyed by increased minutes for Mike Scott (who has not been an overall positive as a player, but has hit his open shots at a very efficient 41.2 per cent clip), the 76ers have somehow finished the regular season with the eighth-best three-point shooting mark in the league; yet it is a delicate balance on a low volume, especially considering their main playmaker Simmons does not shoot at all.
On the plus side for the 76ers, the depth and guard-defense concerns have been slightly assuaged in the last couple of weeks by the bench contributions of rookie guard Zhaire Smith. Absent for the majority of his rookie season with surgery and a subsequent infection, Smith has still managed only six games and 111 NBA minutes all year.
He has, however, in that time shown that the setbacks have not diminished his elite athleticism, which, when combined with good effort level, make him the potentially disruptive and annoying presence on opposing ball handlers that the team has been lacking. Think Dante Exum on James Harden last season. If Smith can give them what McConnell for all his craft cannot, and if Harris and Butler (particularly Butler) can fill in with some of the ball-handling responsibility, then McConnell may not be needed at all.
For the 76ers to offset the Nets' one great advantage, they need good health and a delicate line-up balance. Their theoretically excellent starting five have not been together on the court long enough to reveal its true powers, and the small sample size results are encouraging (a net rating of +17.6 in the 115 minutes they have played as a five-man unit thus far).
Beyond that, they need to find reinforcements off the bench, and execute in key late-game situations much better than they did this time last season. After all, led by Dinwiddie, these Nets close well, and they have Caris LeVert rounding back into form at the right time.
The 76ers themselves showed last season that arriving into the playoffs in a rich vein of form is no automatic recipe for success. Finishing the regular season on a 16-game winning streak was just that - a finish. That said, this season, they enter the postseason with far less conviction, with an underwhelming defence, the perennial juggling of minor injuries including to their most important player, depth concerns, a disgruntled (for a change) Jimmy Butler, and an even more recent acquisition in Tobias Harris, who has still not quite gelled yet.
The Nets, meanwhile, enter on a three-game winning streak, good health, a lot of continuity, and resultant chemistry, and the surety of knowing that they do not underachieve.
This series, then, could be the making of either team. Impressive in their improvements, the Nets have a significant talent disparity compared to any of the Big Five, have consistently improved for two years, have earned their way to this level, and have some exploitable advantages.
The 76ers have much less continuity in their favour, but also have by far the better talents, and stand to benefit from this test, as well as the extended reps offered to their starting line-up.
In both cases, however, the outcome is reliant on the completely pivotal health of Embiid's knee. If he is good to go, Philadelphia should survive.
But if he isn't? Game very much on.
