Tuesday 28 July 2020 12:06, UK
The return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins from long-term injuries gives the Portland Trail Blazers hopes of reaching the playoffs, but a log-jam of frontcourt players means it won't be easy, writes Mark Deeks.
Right as the season was suspended, the Portland Trail Blazers were about to welcome their most valuable big man Jusuf Nurkic into the fold.
The Bosnian center's comeback was postponed thanks to the suspension of the season in March but now, with the ninth-placed Blazers still with a chance of making the playoffs via the new play-in tournament format, his return will be hugely important to Portland's hopes.
It was known that Nurkic would miss the majority of the 2019-20 season, having suffered an ugly leg break in March 2019. The Blazers worked to accommodate his absence by trading for a new starting center, Hassan Whiteside, later that summer.
Whiteside, though he had become somewhat of a malcontent in Miami, had been starting at center for the last few seasons, to a serviceable degree if in a flawed way, losing his spot only to the versatile excellence of Bam Adebayo.
Considering that the Blazers only wanted a rental - Whiteside's contract expires in the summer of 2020 - and that he was acquired in exchange for Meyers Leonard and Mo Harkless (themselves expensive surplus depth options), the unison made some sense.
However, despite once again putting in an excellent statistical season (16.3 points, 14.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocks in 31.3 minutes per game), Whiteside should not be confused with being a sufficient replacement for Nurkic. There have been incremental improvements in the more frustrating parts of Whiteside's game over the past couple of seasons, yet they remain, particularly his knack for chasing shot-block opportunities at the expense of more sound positional defense.
Combined with not being able to play away from the basket on either end, demanding touches in the post even as everyone else moves away from it, not passing the ball back out of the paint well when he does get it, forcing up offensive possessions against the flow of the team and not even being willing to screen that much, Whiteside's occasional finishing and elite rebounding have long looked better in the box score than on the hardwood. This year is no different.
Conversely, before breaking his leg, Nurkic had rounded himself out into being a very significant all-round player. He has always had his own inefficiencies offensively inside the paint, turning it over at a high rate and missing an alarming amount of lay-ups for one so big, yet his passing, decision-making and positionality were much improved in his last part-season, and he has similarly good rebounding rates to Whiteside.
Missed lay-ups and charging fouls notwithstanding, he has the finesse and smoothness that his understudy lacks. Nurkic also has grown significantly defensively over the last few years, aided by a drop-heavy scheme from head coach Terry Stotts that allows him to always stay around the basket, where he makes good plays on the ball and does not have to over-exert himself on the perimeter nor be much attacked in any switching situations.
That scheme however might now be somewhat limiting. Not because it doesn't work; rather, due to the frontcourt rotation that the Blazers will have for this season's final few games, it might be ill-equipped to the playing roster.
Nurkic can be effective in this heavy drop defense, as can Whiteside. yet both only play around the basket. You cannot play two five-men in a drop defense - it is hard enough just with one - and thus you cannot really play them together.
The problem would be somewhat solved if Whiteside embraced the things he has always needed to embrace - working to cover ground on the perimeter and trying his utmost to be in the right position, rather than the ones best reflected in his individual stat line. Doing so would make for a better and more versatile team defense. But this should not be expected.
However, Stotts has alluded to trying out the Nurkic/Whiteside pairing anyway. It is a concession to the realities of the situation. The Blazers have lacked depth at the forward positions all year, having lost much of it over the last offseason. Replacements such as Mario Hezonja have not filled the gaps created adequately. Portland have an even shorter rotation now that Trevor Ariza will not be joining his team in the bubble.
On the plus side, third year big Zach Collins will be able to return to the court upon the restart, having missed most of the campaign through injury.
Collins has had his moments in the league and still teases at Raef LaFrentz potential, yet the modern NBA - where players who were once small forwards are now more likely to be power forwards - makes it far more suitable for a 7ft perimeter speedster like Collins to be playing the five spot, especially defensively.
With the aforementioned Nurkic/Whiteside logjam, he cannot. If two centers are going to be hard to accommodate defensively, then three definitely is. Collins, then, finds his best path back to the court at power forward.
If Collins starts at the four-spot, opposing teams with perimeter-focused, athletic power forwards will be looking to draw out both the four and five spots of the Blazers defense out to the perimeter more than they already did, and switching opportunities become further limited.
The frontcourt issues are not just limited to the defensive end, either. Collins' fledgling outside shooting stroke is more of a weapon at the five-spot where he is unlikely to feature. It provides some hope here, but it is too early to call him a significant floor spacing threat.
On a team reliant on the isolation prowess of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, that is a big hole to have, unless Collins hits the ground running.
Beyond Collins, the options are sparse. Carmelo Anthony is spotty offensively and unimpactful defensively. Rodney Hood is out, and Hezonja has been an offensive burden. Hustling rookie Nassir Little seemingly has been deemed not yet ready for senior minutes. Sophomore trade deadline acquisition Wenyen Gabriel definitely isn't. Although he is undersized compared to his peers, the re-acquired Caleb Swanigan is a tiny center in a modern league.
Collins at power forward will therefore be a regular thing - it has to be. So too might the pairing of Nurkic and Whiteside. They both want to occupy the same areas of the court, and it will not be pretty, but the talent upgrade they offer over the thin bench might see Stotts's hand forced.
The good news is still the most obvious bit. In having Nurkic and Collins return, the Blazers get back important and talented players for both the future and the now. It is a good problem to have, certainly, and their returns provide a glimmer of hope that there is something still to play for this season if Stotts and his staff can nuance the scenes accordingly.
If that happens, will the Blazers sneak into the eighth seed? Possibly. Nurkic will have to land with a bang and Lillard will need to always be in beast mode. They are not favoured to do it, but if they can paper over the decimated forward rotation and strike some balance, it is possible.
