Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings: Which team can escape the perpetual rebuild first?

The Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic are two franchises who have pretty much been fixtures in the NBA Draft Lottery for well over a decade so both fanbases are desperate to have a team which is capable of a postseason run.

With the exception of the 2019 draft, when the Magic selected Chuma Okeke (with the 16th pick) and the Sacramento Kings' pick conveyed to the Boston Celtics you have to go back to 2010 for the first time that either team didn't select in the top half of the draft.

With that in mind, it may be a stretch to suggest that either team is in 'rebuild' mode. Perhaps it would be more apt to suggest they're just trying to 'build', given that the former appears to be a somewhat perpetual state – especially for the Kings, who are still waiting for their first NBA Playoffs appearance since 2006.

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The Magic did manage to get through to the 2019 and 2020 postseasons under Steve Clifford, but on both occasions they grabbed the opening game before bowing out in a gentleman's sweep to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors, and then the Milwaukee Bucks, respectively.

Both teams are maybe slightly better than those records suggest but it makes sense to dive into some of the key questions as they seek to return to prominence.

Do they have "a guy"?

Let's start off with the biggest and most important question.

In the Magic's case, it looks like – for the first time since Dwight Howard led the team to the 2009 NBA Finals – they finally do.

No 1 pick Paolo Banchero has had a historically good start to his NBA career and is already showcasing a maturity of play and a rounded-out skillset which belie his tender age, at just 19.

Already, he is on the receiving end of double-teams from the opposition, but showcases the intelligence to make the right decisions on most offensive possessions. He also provides the Magic with someone who can create his own offense, which is something the franchise has been crying out for in recent seasons.

So far, Banchero, in his nine games, hasn't failed to score fewer than 15 points and has dipped under 20 just twice. He's also already got a couple of double-doubles in the bag and a 21-point, 12-rebound and 7-assist outing against the Charlotte Hornets suggested that there may well be plenty of triple-doubles in the talented big man's future.

The other night, he came directly up against one of the dogged defenders in the league in Draymond Green, who is in no doubt about Banchero's abilities.

"100 per cent agree with him being the No 1 pick," said Green. "Paolo's a special guy, had some tough shots tonight. But you know, that's why he was the No 1 pick. He's going to make some tough ones and you have to live with those but I really love his demeanour.

"That team hasn't won many games. I think that was their second win of the season, but they are competing. And if you're watching these games, they're not getting blown out anymore. They're right there and they're learning how to win. And if I'm being honest, I think his demeanour, who he is, has a lot to do with that – has a lot to do with the mindset."

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If a four-time champion like Green, a man known to never lavish praise gratuitously, is saying those things, then they're certainly to be believed.

MAGIC: YES.

As for the Kings, they have added Keegan Murray, who won NBA Summer League MVP honours, to their roster and he looks to be a really solid pick, averaging over 15 points per game and showing some good defensive ability. Not anything like what Banchero has managed though.

Over the last few years, they've had a few young players who have shown signs of potentially having 'the guy'. One of those was Tyrese Haliburton – but approaching the trade deadline last season, the Kings surprised everyone when they shifted the star wing to the Indiana Pacers along with Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson, receiving Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and a 2023 second-round pick in return.

That big swing means Monte McNair and the front office is doubling down on De'Aaron Fox as the man to lead the revival. The lightning-quick point guard, taken with the No 5 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, has long-exhibited the potential to be capable of putting the franchise on his back.

Some of the best basketball the team has played in recent years came when the team upped their tempo to play at the devastating pace of their lead guard and Fox himself recognises that it is his movement that sets him apart.

Speaking a year ago, hot off the back of his best league season (2020-21) where he averaged 25.2 points per game, along with 7.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds, he said his improvement to become a player averaging comfortably over 20 points a night – as he has done for the last three seasons coming into this one – is down to improving his awareness.

"I just understand the game so much better," said Fox, still just 24 years old, on an episode of The Reel with Kenny Beecham. "I'm so much stronger than I was. People have always said this game is 20 per cent talent and 80 per cent what's going on in your head. I think that's what sets a lot of the greater players apart.

"The way I move is so much different than everybody else. Everybody's not able to make the cuts and just stop and do what I do, especially going at full speed."

That's perhaps why Fox, even at 6ft 3ins tall, is able to score at over 60 per cent clip on two-point field goals and charge to the rim with purpose and tenacity.

The one drawback in his game has been his three-point shooting (he's a 32 per cent shooter from beyond the arc for his career, and shot 29.7 last year from three – which ranked him 119th of 123 NBA players who recorded at least four attempts per game) but this year, he's come out the gate shooting nearly 39 per cent and that is a huge step. Earning respect from out there would open up all sorts of attacking possibilities for him and the rest of the Kings offense, especially with an excellent three-point shooter in Kevin Huerter having been recruited from the Atlanta Hawks.

For the opening two games of the year, Fox scored 33 and 36 against the Portland Trail Blazers and LA Clippers – shooting red-hot from outside – and followed that up with 26-point and 10-assist double-double against the Golden State Warriors. His rebound average also looks to have taken a jump from his 3.6 career average to 6.0 so far through all of his games this season, suggesting that his all-round game looks set to take a leap.

After the opening four games, where he looked to have found something which suggests he could unlock the next level of his potential, his form dipped and he picked up a leg injury which is keeping him out day-to-day at the moment. If he can get back to that early season level and maintain it consistently, then perhaps the Kings have their guy.

KINGS: MAYBE.

Is the rest of the roster up to scratch?

Already mentioned were the acquisitions of Summer League MVP Murray, and Huerter (shooting over 51 per cent from 3-point range already in his short time with franchise). Then, when talking defense, you cannot help but mention sophomore guard Davion Mitchell, who burst onto the scene last season, showcasing his lockdown defensive skills on some of the league's sharpest offensive players – so much so, that it earned him the nickname "Off Night".

Two-time All-Star Sabonis is a Swiss Army Knife on offense, averaging a double-double of 14.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, as well as 6.1 assists per game. Fox's leap in production is no doubt partly down to playing with a colleague with Sabonis' poise and skillset at that end but at the moment, it still feels like they can unlock even more from the Lithuanian-American, who was born in Portland when his father – and Basketball Hall of Famer – Arvydas was playing for the Trail Blazers.

Malik Monk is a player who could still potentially thrive in the right setting and can have big nights, but lacks consistency and Harrison Barnes has championship pedigree and experience which is important around so many players who are young, developing and potentially yet to hit their ceiling.

Richaun Holmes has been the big loser in the Sabonis trade, and that comes after he was given a four-year, $46m contract last summer. Back then, he was a pivotal figure in the team's offense and very much the starting center. Now, it looks like he may well be surplus to requirements, and if not quite that, then certainly overpaid. The Kings have four 2024 second round picks, so they could look to use some of those along with a future first, maybe, if they wish to try and dump the contract.

That's the main spoke in the wheels as far as the Kings are concerned and, even with the shrewd draft pick in Murray, it does feel like they are still missing a piece to compete.

KINGS: NOT QUITE.

The Orlando Magic are much harder to judge because their team (as seems to be always be the case if you ask any battle-hardened and -scarred Magic fans) is completely decimated by injuries.

The injury report as it stands right now features six players who are all either starters or key role players and it comes after last season when the team had the most games missed by injured players and health protocols, with 449 – almost 50 more than the next closest team.

Getting the team healthy is no doubt paramount for the Magic but at the moment they're getting the chance to see some reps from players deeper in the roster. Two of the recent standouts are Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol.

Suggs is joint-second in the league with 2.8 steals per game despite only averaging 26 minutes per game and was the hero for the Magic, hitting some huge buckets and forcing key turnovers down the stretch, in their upset win over the Warriors on Thursday night. A tenacious defender with a strong motor, his shooting is the key to him unlocking his full potential.

Also very notable is the fact that Bol is joint-third in the league in blocks per game with 2.6 and he's only averaging 21 minutes per game. His three-point shooting is practically impossible to defend, at 7ft 2ins and with a huge arc on it, even on a full close-out very few players will have the combination of wingspan and athleticism to stop it.

Both players, though, are hovering either side of 30 per cent from three-point range for the season and the team average is 32.3 per cent, 27th in the league – just behind last season's average of 33.1 per cent, which was second-worst in the NBA. It's clear therefore to see where the Magic as a team need to improve.

Franz Wagner is another player suffering from a three-point slump with the Magic, shooting under 22 per cent to start this season, but that is bound to bounce back towards the 35.4 per cent he shot last year in his rookie campaign. He earned All-Rookie First Team honours last season and deservedly so as he established himself as a key player for the Magic. Wagner also projects to be an ideal "glue guy" looking forward, as a strong defender and playmaker able to do a little bit of everything.

Wendell Carter Jr. has nailed down the starting spot at center, and will be a strong role player and good value on a four-year, $50m contract for the Magic. Chuma Okeke has blown hot and cold in his career so far but has the possibility to be a strong three-and-D player in the league.

Then, it's onto the injured players. The vets Terrence Ross, a scorer who can get hot on any given night, and Gary Harris, a tenacious and experienced defender, will help the younger players round out their skills – but it's other players which will dictate the eventual ceiling for the team.

Jonathan Isaac has been injury-prone throughout his career but is a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate when healthy, with suffocating defense and the ability to switch across all five positions; Markelle Fultz has already shown all the hallmarks of being a high-level, playmaking point guard in the league. He finishes well at the basket, is great at kick-out passes and – again – if he can overcome injury issues, could be the cog which makes all the others turn for the Magic; Cole Anthony has bags of character and panache and is an ideal player to lift the team on any given night with his scoring ability – importantly, he's also shown that he does not shy away from the big moments and is prepared to hit and make game-defining shots.

All in all, the Magic have plenty in their locker, but the big question is whether they can fit it all together when everyone gets healthy – and then keep it that way.

MAGIC: YES, HEALTH PERMITTING.

Is the coaching staff and culture of development good enough?

The Orlando Magic, under previous head coach Steve Clifford, had an iron-willed, win-at-all-costs coach who drilled a team excellently to ensure they were ready for the rigours of NBA basketball. The cost of that? Young players weren't allowed a chance to develop as much as they might have and that's why, when the front office dealt Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier and pivoted to rebuild mode a year-and-a-half back, they decided to replace Clifford with Jamahl Mosley the following summer.

Mosley came in with a vast array of experience as a coach and assistant in the league and cultivated an excellent reputation as a development coach, with Luka Doncic amongst numerous players to sing his praises. The contrast is stark, compared to his predecessor, and the Magic players have freedom to make mistakes, develop and grow, and the coach seems to enjoy a close bond and trust with the players playing for him.

Criticism can rightly be made of some of his decisions with regards to rotations and he is no doubt still gaining experience in how to manage key situations in games, it'll also be interesting to see how he balances his options once players are ready to return to action, but there's definitely a feeling that this team can develop and the players individually can become better. Is Mosley the man to make those pieces then work together to form a postseason push? That remains to be seen.

MAGIC: IT HAS IMPROVED, BUT CAN STILL DO SO EVEN MORE.

Mike Brown is new to the job in Sacramento and is the 12th coach the team has hired since Rick Adelman last took them to the playoffs. It'd be unfair to judge him for that reason.

Traditionally, the Kings have been unable to make the most of the players they've picked with their high-end draft picks but hopefully Murray and others will buck that trend and Brown's experience working with Stephen Curry as associate head coach with the Golden State Warriors between 2016 and 2022 could certainly give him some insight that others may not have when it comes to helping Fox make the most of his potential.

KINGS: TOO EARLY TO SAY.

Predicting timelines for playoffs return…

It's not an exact science, the game of predictions, but the Kings and Magic are both in better shape than they were 12 months ago – that is worth making clear. Orlando has Paolo, and Sacramento is no longer hamstrung by having an ill-suited Luke Walton as coach.

It's a long season and the Play-In Tournament coupled with the shallowed out NBA Draft Lottery odds mean that the equation looks very different for teams, when they are deciding whether they want to compete or try and tank for Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, the projected top two in next year's draft who both look to be potential franchise-changers.

So there's a lot to ponder when teams think about what direction they want to go.

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Let's start with Orlando, given they're the home team on Saturday night: It all comes down to health, really. Jonathan Isaac could end up a bust through injury, or he could be a transformative player on the defensive end just as Banchero has been on the offensive side of the ball. Fultz could come in and make everything work like a smoothly-oiled machine, or his style might jar with that of the team's new No 1 offensive option – more likely the former, however, and the 2017 No 1 pick is likely to boost the team's chances of success considerably.

A starting five of Carter Jr., Banchero, Wagner, Suggs, Fultz is strong now, and looking forward – and that's just one of any number of combinations could go for with Isaac, Bol, Okeke, Anthony, RJ Hampton, Mo Wagner (Franz's brother – an energiser from the bench in the frontcourt), Ross, Harris, and a few others who could step in. All of a sudden, it looks pretty strong.

If they can get healthy and get shots to drop more consistently, the Magic could have a chance of at least getting into the play-in, if that's how they want to approach things – get their young players playing meaningful basketball early in their careers. Perhaps, as Green alluded to, Banchero's mindset could lead them to think it's worth fighting for a place in the top 10. They're only 2.0 games back from one of those spots with 73 still left to play.

MAGIC: THIS YEAR, THROUGH THE PLAY-IN. IN 2024, THEY SHOULD BE A WINNING TEAM.

Sacramento has fewer injury concerns long-term but they also have less depth and are a less complete squad than Orlando. The Western Conference is also ridiculously deep, with the East having a few more teams who are looking to the long term.

They are more in need of a Wembanyama (especially) or Henderson and, as suggested above, probably still have a few moves to make in the draft before they'll have a team capable of breaking into that strong pool of teams in the West.

For that reason, even with reduced odds of getting the top pick, tanking and seeking to develop will probably be the preferred option for the Kings and it'll be interesting to see if they can add to their depth chart a little in some way – although there's not much to work with that they'd look to be able to build a trade package with.

Their starting five of Sabonis, Murray, Barnes, Huerter and Fox looks a little light to compete and the bench is certainly not replete with options. It seems unlikely that they're ready and they're either a very shrewd trade or, more likely, a draft pick or two light.

Sabonis is the oldest of their key players at 26 and the fact that they have a top 14 protection on their 2024 first-rounder from the Huerter trade, which would go to Atlanta should the Kings make the playoffs, may figure into their thinking and perhaps that may mean they will look to stay patient for longer.

KINGS: 2025 SEEMS A REASONABLE TARGET.

Watch more live NBA later this week as Atlanta Hawks host Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday from 12.30am; 76ers then host Hawks on Saturday night from from 12.30am; Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the Cleveland Cavaliers in our Sunday game from 11pm, all three live on Sky Sports Arena.