Michael Phelps

American Phelps will arrive in London in 2012 on a hiding to nothing. For how can a man who won eight gold medals at the last Olympics in Beijing do better four years on?

The answer is, not surprisingly, that he can't. He won't even try to - Phelps has already decided not to compete in eight events this time around.

Instead it is expected he will significantly change his programme from the one he so spectacularly raced in China.

So while the focus of the 2008 Games was largely on Phelps' bid to better Mark Spitz's record of seven golds set in 1972, in 2012 it will be all about another mark.

With 16 medals already in his locker - Phelps also won six golds and two bronzes at Athens 2004 - he needs three more in London to become the most decorated athlete in Olympic history.

Russian gymnast Larissa Latynina collected 18 medals from the 1956, 1960 and 1964 Games but Phelps is likely to start a hot favourite to replace her at the top of the all-time list once the action gets under way at the new pool in Stratford.

It would be an incredible achievement, but whatever happens in London, it is unlikely the story of Beijing can be surpassed.

It was almost the story that never was, as you may remember.

For in the second of Phelps' eight finals - the 4x100m freestyle relay - the American team trailed the French heading into the closing stages but an amazing swim from Jason Lezak saw the USA overhaul their rivals at the death.

If that was thrilling, what followed a few days later was sporting drama of the highest order.

Chasing the seventh of his golds in the 100m butterfly, Phelps somehow pipped Milorad Cavic to the prize on the finishing touch to win by 1/100th of a second. Most who watched the race could not believe how Phelps had caught - and indeed passed - the Serb.

If London is blessed with any such Phelps drama, those present can count themselves lucky indeed.