Kovalev vs Canelo: Has Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez crucially misjudged Sergey Kovalev?

Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez, the flame-haired Mexican, will set alight his pursuit of modern-day greatness by toppling the once-feared Sergey Kovalev tonight and winning a world title in a fourth division.

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Canelo, a reigning middleweight champion, jumps two weight classes and challenges for Kovalev's WBO light-heavyweight belt in Las Vegas at 1am, live on Sky Sports Action in a fight that would have seemed implausible a couple of years ago.

These are two elite fighters of this age - Canelo, a prodigious talent with an army of fans from Mexico who has battled his way through a rivalry with Gennadiy Golovkin that will stand the test of time, and is probably not over yet. Kovalev, a terrifying Russian knockout artist albeit one whose reputation has taken a bashing recently.

Canelo has hand-picked this fight, so there is the perception that 36-year-old Kovalev is on the decline. But perhaps the single biggest difference in their careers so far has surrounded the judging in their two biggest respective fights. Canelo was favoured against Golovkin, Kovalev was not against Andre Ward.

It is three years since unbeaten Kovalev put Ward on the floor and was on the precipice of being named the world's best boxer. He controversially lost that decision, was stopped in a rematch, and has since also lost to Eleider Alvarez (although he won their second fight).

"I fancy Canelo," said prospective opponent Callum Smith. "But people are just writing Kovalev off, whereas he is a good fighter, he's a world champion and there is a natural size difference. I know he fades around the halfway mark, he'll still be dangerous for the first half.

"Canelo has got to be switched on, but I do see him getting to him around the halfway mark or a bit later and I do see him winning. But it's not as easy as a lot of people are making out.

"I don't think Canelo stays at light-heavy. I don't think he'll be called to unifications with Artur Beterbiev or Dmitry Bivol. I think Canelo has seen the weakness in Kovalev and they've chosen the right opponent."

Canelo learned from the master, Floyd Mayweather, when it comes to ruthlessly selecting the right time to pick a fight. Mayweather made a young, green Canelo boil down to an uncomfortable weight before inflicting the only defeat of his 55-fight career. In turn, Canelo forced Kovalev into a 10-week turnaround from his win over Anthony Yarde which was tumultuous, to say the least.

But Kovalev is far bigger than Canelo, and hasn't lost the venom in his right hand. Canelo, amid alleged friction with his promoters Golden Boy, wants to be recognised as the No 1 boxer on the planet and victory tonight would go some way to proving that. He has insisted that his accolades are better than Terence Crawford's or Vasiliy Lomachenko's and, at 29, we may be witnessing the building of a legacy that goes down in history.

What may come next for Canelo? "I would take pleasure in ruining Cinco de Mayo for the Mexican fans," Billy Joe Saunders told Sky Sports.

Golovkin will want a trilogy fight, after a draw and a victory for Canelo in their first two fights.

"When the Kovalev fight is out of the way, that's the fight to make," said promoter Eddie Hearn.

"But we've got them lining up - Billy Joe Saunders, Callum Smith, Demetrius Andrade.

"Golovkin will have to deal with his mandatory quite quickly. He needs to stay active. Although it was a hard fight last time, he's ready to fight in February. I would like to see him deal with his mandatory then go into the Canelo fight in May."

Andy Clarke's verdict

If Canelo wins then it'll be yet another feather in his cap, a big one, and if Kovalev wins it'll be a huge victory for him and involve the derailing of the most powerful train in world boxing.

Canelo isn't risk averse, you only have to look at the fighters he's faced to understand that, but he wields such enormous power that people are starting to resent the extent to which he can dictate terms. But that's boxing. Rocky Fielding was recruited at super-middleweight and duly dispatched and now Kovalev, who's had 10 weeks out of the ring following his last fight compared to Canelo's six months, has become the latest fighter to be ordered to march gladly towards his impending doom.

And in Las Vegas too, where recent evidence would suggest that a points win against the Mexican may well be off the cards.

So the house is against Kovalev but can he upset the odds? Well he may be 36 but he's still a very good fighter. Andre Ward, reckoned to be one of the best boxers of the last 20 years, squeezed past him by decision and then won their second fight in questionable circumstances. Yes, Eleider Alvarez knocked him out but the Russian comprehensively reversed the defeat in their rematch.

And OK, Yarde had him out on his feet but he got through a round that many wouldn't have and recovered to win. So it's eminently possible that the reports of his demise may have been exaggerated but it's hard to shake the feeling that the timing of this fight is perfect for Canelo, who, let's not forget, is very, very good and who at 29, is nearing if not at his very peak.

Live on Sky Sports tonight from Manchester, Katie Taylor aims to become a two-weight world champion against Christina Linardatou and Anthony Crolla fights for the last time before retiring.

Then we head straight to Vegas for Kovalev vs Canelo.