F1 2026: New rules era starts at Australian GP with unpredictability expected for Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull fight
What to expect as F1's much-anticipated new season begins this week? With the help of Martin Brundle, we look at some of the key questions; watch the Australian Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1, with track action under way from Friday morning and Sunday's race at 4am
Friday 27 February 2026 18:16, UK
Formula 1's new era of regulations finally gets under way for real in Melbourne from Friday as the Australian Grand Prix opens a 24-race season in which no one yet seems quite sure what to expect.
The sport has undergone what is considered the most extensive rules change in its history this winter, with revisions to both cars and engines creating new challenges for teams, placing new demands on drivers in the cockpit and offering the chance of a competitive shake-up on track,
The 11 teams each have nine days of pre-season track running to get to grips with their all-new challengers but much remains for them to learn and finesse, particularly around energy deployment from the power units which feature a near 50-50 split between internal combustion and electrical power for the first time.
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For Sky Sports F1's Martin Brundle, an unpredictable start to the new campaign is therefore in store when action gets under way at Melbourne's Albert Park.
"It's a dramatic change, the biggest ever in Formula 1, and we're right at the very beginning of it," said Brundle.
"Teams have got to find ways of replenishing the battery and for it to not dominate the lap so much, but I think they'll quite quickly do that and migrate together in terms of how they want to charge and use their power.
"But, in the beginning, it's going to be slightly wild.
"We're going to get unreliability as well, much more than we've seen in the last few years, when the last hybrid engines became bulletproof, really, and so did the cars.
"I think you'll not think you have won a grand prix until you literally see the chequered flag.
"We're going to see a lot of variability but we're in a massively better place than we were in 2014 when the hybrid engines first came in because only Mercedes got it right then and everybody else was floundering around.
"This is much closer."
Who will be contending at the front?
On the evidence of testing, the four teams who shared all the race victories between them in the last rules era - McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari - remain the ones set to compete for wins again.
And while the pace advantage that established 'big four' hold over the rest certainly appears to have grown since the end of last season, placing the leading quartet in a definitive pecking order for Melbourne remains difficult.
"The rule changes have scattered the pack a bit, which was inevitable - guaranteed, actually," said Brundle of the lap-time spread between front and back of the grid.
"But from everybody I've spoken to, and just from observing, it does seem that the usual top-four teams - Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, and Red Bull - are extremely close, even though even they are going about it different ways and with three different power units.
"They were pounding out of the laps in testing, the reliability looked good as well.
"Then there's a bit of a gap to the midfield, which itself looks quite close, and then some people struggling at the back."
Not that testing has necessarily revealed the absolute full picture.
"Remember, we have been to Barcelona, that was freezing cold, and to Bahrain that was very hot," he warned.
"Now we've going to go to Melbourne, a totally different circuit layout, so all bets are off, frankly."
And whatever the order this week at Albert Park and then next week at round two in China, Brundle is expecting the picture to remain fluid over the season's opening months.
"It's going to be an incredibly changeable year," predicted the Sky F1 commentator.
"I see teams leapfrogging each other. There's not going to be, like, little gains with an upgrade here and there, we're going to see packages coming along all year, particularly in the first half of the year, where teams start leapfrogging when they really find a chunk of the time."
Who are the likely title contenders?
As far as the bookmakers are concerned, at least, it's Mercedes who head down under not only the favourites for the season-opening race win but for both of 2026's world championship titles too.
That status is clearly partly based on a widespread and long-held belief that the Silver Arrows - who absolutely dominated for several seasons the last time engine rules were overhauled in 2014 - are well equipped to flourish in the new era and the fact their new W17 car duly impressed during testing.
George Russell, Mercedes' senior driver, is the bookies' favourite for the Drivers' Championship for the first time.
"Nobody's got more confidence in George than George. I like the way he goes about his racing," said Brundle of the 28-year-old Briton, preparing for his eighth season of F1.
"He's done the hard yards, at Williams for a number of years, he moved to Mercedes just as they stopped dominating, kept his head down - he is the No 1 in the team.
"I think his team-mate Kimi Antonelli will have a great season as well, but George has got all the confidence he needs to win races and to go and win a championship, if it's available to him."
However, while confident Russell is "ready" for a title tilt, Brundle believes the championship picture will be far from clear cut.
"I see Ferrari being strong. I see both Ferrari drivers, Lewis [Hamilton] and Charles [Leclerc], being strong," added Brundle of a team whose SF-26 car also impressed during testing.
"I think both McLaren drivers will be strong as well.
"Oscar [Piastri] will come back on a mission after what he learned last year; Lando [Norris], I don't think I've ever seen him yet not with that big grin on his face so far this year, he's just got that comfort now of being a world champion.
"The Red Bull looks really strong, and we know how Max [Verstappen]'s car control, which you'll need with these cars, will be incredible.
"So, for me, there's not a clear favourite."
What's the racing gong to be like and which drivers will thrive?
Although an increased field spread is expected in the early stages of F1's new rule set, Brundle is optimistic the new generation of cars will help facilitate close - and, in some cases, novel - wheel-to-wheel racing as drivers and teams deploy different energy-management tactics.
Some of the grid's leading names have criticised aspects of the new cars and the complexity of them, but Brundle believes any misgivings will not stop the grid's most switched-on operators from working out the best ways to get the most performance out of them and gain an edge over their rivals on track.
"Initially I think we're going to lose a little bit of the David and Goliath stuff, but I think we're going to see some good racing, we're going to see some unorthodox overtakes," he said.
"I think we're going to see cars overtaking in very unusual places, with different recharge or deployment strategies in the beginning, and we're going to see drivers really having to fight to keep the cars on their road, especially towards the end of tyre life. They've got to really drive these.
"Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna would have loved the opportunity of these cars.
"I think of Senna playing with the throttle like a musical instrument. I think of Senna when he had an active car in 1993, walking the track with his engineer, tuning the active suspension every five metres. I think of Schumacher playing his steering wheel, his differential and his brake bias, again like a musical instrument, with his left foot on the brake.
"Whatever tools the great drivers have had over the years, they've used them better.
"I think the smart drivers, whether they like these cars or not and whatever they think of this phase of these new regulations, will think 'this is what we've got' and how do they get the most out of these numerous, if complicated, tools available to them.
"The smart drivers with the right attitude, I think, will really shine in the beginning."
Sky Sports F1's Australian GP schedule
Thursday March 5
3am: Drivers' Press Conference
6am: Paddock Uncut
9.45pm: F3 Practice
10.55pm: F2 Practice
Friday March 6
1am: Australian GP Practice One (session starts at 1.30am)*
2.55am: F3 Qualifying*
3.30am: Team Bosses Press Conference
3.50am: F2 Qualifying*
4.35am: Australian GP Practice Two (session starts at 5am)*
6.15am: The F1 Show*
Saturday March 7
0.10am: F3 Sprint*
1.10am: Australian GP Practice Three (session starts at 1.30am)*
3.05am: F2 Sprint*
4.10am: Australian GP Qualifying build-up*
5am: AUSTRALIAN GRAND PRIX QUALIFYING*
7am: Ted's Qualifying Notebook*
9.45pm: F3 Feature Race*
Sunday March 8
12.20am: F2 Feature Race*
2.30am: Australian GP build-up: Grand Prix Sunday*
4am: THE AUSTRALIAN GRAND PRIX*
6am: Australian GP reaction: Chequered Flag*
7am: Ted's Notebook*
7.55am: Australian GP race replay*
10am: Australian GP highlights (also on Sky Showcase)*
*Also on Sky Sports Main Event
Watch every race of the 2026 Formula 1 season live on Sky Sports, starting with the Australian Grand Prix from March 6-8. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime
