Questions for the 2014 Brazilian Grand Prix

How will we feel about Abu Double on Sunday night?
In a curious twist of fate,  the credibility of Nico Rosberg’s title candidature has become inextricably linked to 'Abu Double'. If you cannot see how Nico, with just four wins to Lewis’ ten this year, can be a worthy and credible champion then your view on Abu Double - and its obvious potential to hijack Hamilton's title parade - is liable to be overwhelmingly negative.

Based on recent events it’s an understandable stance; whereas Hamilton has delivered a series of champion drives since the early summer, Rosberg’s last victory was four months ago. Since then, Nico has been made to look second-class by his team-mate whilst driving the same first-rate piece of machinery. Only by winning both of the remaining races can Rosberg be sure of ending the season with more than half the number of race victories achieved by his team-mate.

The perverse peculiarity of this weekend is that, whatever happens, the outcome will not be decisive and may not ultimately matter. Rosberg can fall a further 25 points behind his team-mate and still win the championship in Abu Double. The mathematics is almost poetical: Hamilton extend his title advantage this weekend to 49 points, Rosberg snatches the crown out of his rival’s grasp by collecting 50 points on the final day to claim the crown by a single digit.

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Yet let’s just throw out an alternative scenario: Rosberg wins conclusively in Interlagos this Sunday, swatting Hamilton aside in a season-best performance to reduce his title rival's lead or, even more dramatically in the event of Hamilton failing to score, regain the lead of the championship.

Then how will you feel about Abu Double?

Were this scenario to unfold, with the two title protagonists separated by a point, Abu Double will actually make sense. Although irrelevant from a sporting perspective – the winner would take all in both formats - it would serve a very handy purpose in ratcheting up the drama and sense of theatre. The interest of the most casual of lackadaisical fans may be sufficiently piqued to tune in – which nobody can complain about.

Except, of course, if you happen to work in the ticket office at Interlagos. Last week, U.S.GP promoter Bobby Epstein was frequently asked for his opinion on the reduced field and three-car teams. Seven days on, a penny for the thoughts of the Brazilian GP promoter on the significance of their event being shrunk in half. PG

Is there any lingering threat of a boycott this weekend?
Surely that threat is highly unlikely now because there never really seemed the threat of one at the U.S. GP. Just a week after Caterham and Marussia went bust, tensions were understandably high in Austin and with the grid starting to look more than a little threadbare, attentions naturally switched to the other ‘have-nots’.

But while Sauber, Force India and Lotus made their feelings clear about the situation and what they think should be done to rectify it (team bosses from all three spoke in Friday’s official press conference, which lasted over an hour) talk of a ‘strike’ always appeared wide of the mark. Certainly, no-one from the teams ever went on the record to confirm as much; indeed Lotus boss Gerard Lopez denied it outright. Things might have been different on the paddock grapevine, but like a strong wind fanning a Texas wildfire such things can quickly spread out of control.

Looking forward to Interlagos, readers of the official F1 website can find the answer simply enough via a Q&A with Vijay Mallya. ‘Force India can still catch McLaren’ is the headline – it’s doubtful they’ll do that by pulling out of the Brazilian GP, right?

Of course, the big question of how to fix things remains: reports suggest that majority shareholder CVC Capital Partners are prepared to pay smaller teams £100 million to help keep them afloat. Soothing balm undoubtedly, were it to happen, but the way teams hoover up money it only sounds like a stop-gap.

What about the longer term? Can costs be reduced? Will the big teams forgo some of their income or might Bernie Ecclestone, as he told Sky Sports News HQ referring to the teams’ commercial deals, “tear the whole lot up and start again”? As usual, looking for clarity is all-but impossible. But if there’s any to be had, it’s in pondering the prospect of a boycott this weekend. MW

Has Nico Rosberg got anything left?
With two rounds of 2014 still to go, Lewis Hamilton has already won only three fewer races than Sebastian Vettel managed en-route to winning the Drivers’ Championship 12 months ago. Given Vettel’s fourth title-winning campaign, in which he reeled off nine straight wins and wrapped up the crown with three races to spare, quickly came to be viewed as one of the most dominant in F1 history, it’s somewhat odd – and some might say downright unjust – that Hamilton still has plenty of work to do to wrap up this year’s title despite becoming just the third man ever to achieve double-digit race victories in a single season.

Hamilton, of course, has the seemingly universally unpopular ‘double points’ rule to thank – or curse - for that. Had the usual 25, and not 50, points been on offer at the Abu Dhabi finale in a fortnight’s time then Lewis would only need to outscore Nico Rosberg by a solitary point in Brazil this weekend to be sure of that second world crown. But whatever you think of the 2014 format fudge, and it's probably not a lot, there’s certainly no changing it, and the inflated mathematics therefore say that Rosberg still has time to recover from his team-mate’s winning splurge of recent months.

But, having succumbed to Hamilton in race conditions again despite impressively qualifying ahead just days ago in Austin, the big question is does Nico have anything left to bring to the table? Putting aside the chance of unreliability or mistakes skewing the Mercedes duel at Interlagos, Rosberg simply has to find the sustained race pace and, perhaps as crucially, poise that has deserted him of late and arguably deliver the race of his life. Such a performance still might not be good enough to ultimately change much in the Hamilton-dominated narrative of the title run-in, but a win for Rosberg at the championship’s leader expense in Brazil would perhaps go some way to help justify to the doubters his already guaranteed participation in that Abu Dhabi decider. JG    

Can McLaren close the gap to Ferrari in the fight for fourth?
McLaren endured a difficult race at the Circuit of the Americas as their car proved temperamental to the strength of the breeze in Austin, but Interlagos should suit them better this weekend.

After the Russian GP, Mark Hughes wrote that “the car’s naturally good traction around a circuit that favoured its Mercedes engine over the Ferrari and Renault power units even more than usual worked heavily in its favour at Sochi". That weekend McLaren scored 22 points to Ferrari’s 10 to cut the gap to 45 points, although that increased to 49 in the USA.

Good traction will be key around the tight infield of the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace as the middle sector makes up over 50 per cent of the lap time. The Mercedes engine in the rear of the MP4-29 should help it power out of the slow turns and will also prove key in the final sector.

The engines are worked hard from the exit of Turn 12 all the way to Turn One as the cars blast up hill and across the start/finish line. With the first corner also a good overtaking spot, having good traction to exit the corner, and the Mercedes power advantage over Ferrari and Renault, could really play into McLaren’s hands. WE

What are the chances of another home win for Felipe Massa?
Not great, to be honest. Online bookmakers Sky Bet rate the Brazilian fifth in the betting pecking order for Sao Paulo at 20/1. Lewis Hamilton (8/15), Nico Rosberg (9/4), Daniel Ricciardo (14/1) and his own team-mate Valtteri Bottas (14/1) are all more likely to win, according to the odds.

However, along with Sebastian Vettel (28/1), Massa is one of only two multiple winners of the Brazilian GP of the current grid – having won here for Ferrari in 2006 and, unforgettably, 2008 – and he’s available to back each-way for a top-two finish at a third of his race win odds.

Lewis Hamilton has fond memories of Interlagos, and he’s now clear favourite for the title at 1/6 amid his five-race winning streak. Whatever your thoughts on the double points rule in Abu Dhabi, recent results ensure the title fight will go down to the last race of the season.

Rosberg is on the ropes, though, and he’s 4/1 to turn things around ahead of Brazil. JC

The 2014 Brazilian GP is live only on Sky Sports F1 this weekend. Extensive coverage of Race Day from Interlagos begins at 2:30pm on Sunday with lights out at 4pm.