Five questions for the Jerez test

Will Mercedes have it all their own way again?

In many ways, the first act of 2014 proved to be a defining statement. Even at the time, the fact that Mercedes were first on track at Jerez, with little in the way of company, felt significant and a telling portent of what was to come. So it proved.

As the season progressed, and the Silver Arrows' dominance launched a sustained attack on the record books, that first impression that Mercedes had stolen an unequivocal march on their rivals at the start of F1's new turbo era solidified into absolute conviction. The W05's glorious solitude in that first hour, when no other team managed to coax their car out on track wasn't merely symbolic, it was a tell-tale sign of the times.

Paddock Uncut: First Winter Test Jerez Day One

The Silver Arrows' 2014 superiority is likely to be prolonged into 2015. There's been too little time between seasons and too few tweaks to the rulebook to believe with any conviction that Mercedes will be dramatically dislodged from their lofty perch this winter. Even if they run the W05, they'd surely remain out front.

Nevertheless, it's difficult to foresee Mercedes boasting quite such a large advantage in 2015. In the high-competitive world of F1, it borders on the inconceivable that their rivals' efforts will be so unfathomably flawed for two successive years. Just as Renault surely won't cripple Red Bull again, Ferrari and McLaren will surely learn from the fundamental errors of their mistaken ways in 2014. At a minimum, they could give the Mercedes some company on the track in the first hour of testing, just to offer a glimmer of competitive hope for the year ahead.

How much running will McLaren-Honda enjoy?

The lack of running a year ago at Jerez, when the field tried and generally failed to get to instant grips with the sport's new turbo era, is a salient reminder of just how difficult the next few days might be for the new partnership. And it's not as if the new combo haven't been warned: McLaren-Honda have themselves already suffered a brief bitter early taste of those difficulties after completing a mere five laps during the two-day test at Abu Dhabi in November, when running a hybrid version of last year's car with a Honda engine stuffed in the back.

But just as it's better to endure problems in testing rather than during the season proper, it's far preferable to encounter a few unforeseen incompatibilities in a post-season meet than during one of three pre-season tests. Given that McLaren-Honda have had over two months between Abu Dhabi and Jerez in which to understand and fix their early teething problems, a luxury denied their rivals a year ago, expecting the team to top 100 laps this week is not unreasonable.

What will Vettel’s first impression of the Ferrari be?

According to Sky F1 pundit Anthony Davidson, a driver will know more or less instantly whether he likes his new car or not. "I think some people seriously under-estimate how much 'feel' a racing driver has for his car at this level," says the World Endurance Championship title winner. Sebastian Vettel's first impressions of the Ferrari will be all the more acute given that, bar a few laps in an old Ferrari at the team's test track in late November, he has only driven an Adrian Newey car for the last six years. It's easy to imagine the German's first laps in the Ferrari will be performed in a heightened state of sensitivity in which every whisper of understeer or misbehaviour will cause palpations.

Driving into such a vast unknown, the novelty factor may be on a par with Vettel's first-ever drive in an F1 car - although it has to be hoped that his first impression of the Ferrari doesn't echo his reaction to driving a Williams at Jerez on his F1 debut a decade ago. "I s**t myself the first couple of laps," the German later candidly admitted. Fortunately, 2015 shouldn't be so uncomfortable.

And can Red Bull do better than last year?

After four successive title doubles, the writing was on the wall for Red Bull's hopes of a fifth season of supremacy by lunchtime on the first day of the Jerez test last year. The embodiment of serene progress in the previous half-decade, the team failed to register a timed lap on Day One as their Renault engine stubbornly resisted all persuasion to play ball. The test was a nightmare - and the two subsequent Bahrain meets weren't much of an improvement either. In total, the world champions completed just 1700 kilometres over the 12 days of pre-season testing - a trifle compared to the 5000 of Mercedes. From then on, there was no way back for the fallen superpower of F1.

Will the winter of 2015 prove more profitable? Surely so. It has passed under-remarked that with Caterham falling by the wayside and Lotus switching to Mercedes power, Red Bull are now a 'works team'. The only teams Renault will be supplying in 2015 are Red Bull and Toro Rosso - and that amounts to one outfit. They won't be in want of attention. However, the upside of exclusivity is almost as obvious as the potential downside: only Red Bull stand to flounder if Renault fail to deliver.

Will Mercedes power Lotus back to the front?

Which reminds us, there's two new teams on the grid this term: McLaren-Honda and Lotus-Mercedes. While Honda's return to the F1 fold has understandably overshadowed Lotus' switch, their decision to jettison Renault in favour of Mercedes is not without interest and potential resonance.

Assuming the aerodynamic value of their 2014 and 2015 cars vis a vis the competition will follow a similar strand - a reasonable supposition given the restrictions placed on the team by their financial strife - Lotus should be a fascinating case study in determining the extent of the advantage accrued from running Mercedes power in the new era. Just look at the instant dividends Williams enjoyed after turning to Mercedes power for 2014. If that advantage is apparent, then the demise of Caterham and Marussia may leave Sauber and Toro Rosso with nowhere to hide. We'll see.

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The Sky Sports F1 Online team will be providing live commentary of all three winter tests, starting in Jerez on February 1, with live updates from trackside also on Sky Sports News HQ.