Stephen Roche
Sir Bradley Wiggins doesn't have the form to win Paris-Roubaix
Recent performances suggest he isn't in top condition
Last Updated: 29/04/15 4:02pm
After months of talk and anticipation, Sir Bradley Wiggins will bring to an end his Team Sky career on Sunday by bidding for victory in the legendary one-day cobbled classic Paris-Roubaix.
On paper, it has the makings of a movie script, but I think it would be unfair to expect him to win because, as far as I can see, his preparations simply haven't gone to plan.
In the races he has taken part in so far this year, other than a win in a time trial, he has shown very little by way of good form and hasn't even been close to finishing in the front group in the three classics he has ridden.
I was expecting a strong performance from him at the Tour of Flanders last Sunday and while I fully accept he crashed early on and may have been affected by that, it was another day that slipped by without any sort of hint that he has the optimal condition you need to win Paris-Roubaix.
He will unquestionably have the desire to pull off this fairytale ending to his time with Team Sky, but it’s another thing altogether to actually go out and do it, particularly in a race so difficult and with so many factors outside of your control as Paris-Roubaix.
That said, Wiggins is a unique character who has made a habit of overturning the odds and I can think of only a handful of riders who rise to the big occasion quite like he can.
He wasn’t fancied to win the world time trial championship last year but did; he sprang a surprise to won the Olympic time trial; and who would have thought years ago that he could win the Tour de France?
His chances have also been helped by the absence of Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen - who have seven Paris-Roubaix wins between them - through injury, which opens the race up considerably.
But there are still a lot of strong guys out there who have been showing good form all spring and it will be difficult for someone who is not 100 per cent to beat them, irrespective of whether you are a Tour de France-winning Olympic champion or not. If you are not the best man on the day, your past achievements mean nothing.
So who will win? The most in-form rider is without doubt Alexander Kristoff, who took victory the Tour of Flanders last Sunday with an exceptionally strong performance.
He has 10 wins to his name this season and although virtually all of those have been in sprints, he has proven how comfortable he is with both the cobbles and the long distances of the classics, so he definitely has what it takes.
Then I will also be looking at the Etixx – Quick-Step pair Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar, who have pressure on them to deliver given that their team’s classics campaign hasn’t really lived up to expectations.
Terpstra is the defending champion and his second-place finish at the Tour of Flanders showed he has the condition to win Paris-Roubaix again, while Stybar has a good record in the race and looks in fine shape.
My final tip is Peter Sagan, who has had a poor season so far and who I have been critical of at times this year.
I hadn’t expected him to be a factor at Paris-Roubaix given his recent results and the way he has fallen away at the end of several classics this year, but his form looked to have improved at the Tour of Flanders.
He still wasn’t at his best, yet I was impressed by the way he set off in pursuit of the two leaders up the road when the likes of Geraint Thomas were unable to do so.
OK, he had to settle for fourth after wilting in the final 1km, but by Sunday he will have had an extra week to keep progressing and I have a suspicion that, whether by design or accident, we are about to see the best of him at Paris-Roubaix.
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