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Nikola Jokic will win MVP three-man race over Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are also in the race to be crowned MVP but Stuart Hodge argues that there can only be one winner and that it has to be Nikola Jokic

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Mo Mooncey believes Nikola Jokic has been the MVP in his record-breaking season and feels if he wasn’t playing, Denver would even find themselves in the lottery

Nikola Jokic is nicknamed 'The Joker' but his perennial MVP candidacy has been driven by a serious commitment to the game of basketball and desire to be the best.

Remember, this is a guy who has gone from the ignominy of being drafted during a Taco Bell commercial to rise to the very top of the game's pecking order.

A lot has gone into that process – ironically, 'The Process' is the nickname for one of his rivals for the award, Joel Embiid – of Jokic becoming a player single-handedly capable of masterminding victories for his team on a nightly basis.

Two-time MVP winner Giannis Antetokounmpo is the other player who is in contention for the award but seems to be a "distant third" according to Brian Windhorst on ESPN in the US outlet's most recent ballot, which polls the actual voters from all markets.

It's still a three-man race though, and Giannis was keen to emphasise that factor when he outduelled Joel Embiid as the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Philadelphia 76ers, he produced a game-winning block on his MVP rival and scored 40 points to Embiid's 29 as both players also tallied 14 rebounds and 6/7 assists respectively.

When the regular season comes to a close though, the winner of that race is going to be Nikola Jokic. As the other two punch themselves out, Jokic is on the cusp of setting a new record which should all but guarantee his selection among most of the voters to ensure he secures a second consecutive MVP award.

Historical significance of Jokic's season

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Take a look at 2021-22 NBA All-Star Nikola Jokic's midseason highlights for the Denver Nuggets

If he can average 24 points or more over the next three games, Jokic will have become the very first player to put a 2,000 point, 1,000 rebound and 500 assist season in NBA history.

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Jokic is 72 points and 14 rebounds from what would be an incredible achievement and a lasting testament to the all-round nature of the Joker's game.

The last time an all-round MVP candidate put up historical numbers across all three of the main statistical categories was when Russell Westbrook was named MVP after becoming the first player since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62 to average a triple-double for a season.

Historical significance is an important aspect to consider when bestowing the MVP honours on someone and a season like this is one which should be honoured in a way that everyone remembers it.

Jokic is ending the season in great form

Jokic was being named Western Conference Player of the Week for last week and recorded averages of 34.8 points, 17.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 2.00 steals while shooting 67 per cent from the field en route to a 3-1 week for his team. He ranked first in the NBA in total rebounds for the week and among the Western Conference, he ranked first in points, first in field goal percentage, and third in assists.

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Nikola Jokic ended with 26 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists for his 19th triple-double of the season against the Charlotte Hornets

To break it all down: Joker kicked off the week by registering his NBA-best 19th triple-double with 26 points, 19 rebounds, and 11 assists in a win at Charlotte. He then followed that up with 37 points (15-19 FG), 13 rebounds, and nine assists in a road win at Indiana. In Denver's lone loss of the week, Nikola registered 38 points (14-21 FG), 19 rebounds, and eight assists against Minnesota. The team bounced back with a road win over the LA Lakers, broadcast live on Sky Sports on Sunday, that saw Jokic post 38 points (15-22 FG), 18 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, and two steals.

His current stretch of three straight games with 35 or more points on 65 per cent shooting is tied for the longest streak in NBA history (Shaquille O'Neal, Charles Barkley, Adrian Dantley, Oscar Chamberlain). He is also the first Nugget with three straight 35-plus point games since Carmelo Anthony in 2008 and is the first player in NBA franchise history with three straight games with 35-plus points and 10-plus rebounds.

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Nikola Jokic scored 37 points as the Nuggets saw off the Indiana Pacers, also tallying 13 rebounds and nine assists

To take it to a slightly bigger sample size, across the last month, he's averaged 30 points on 61 per cent shooting. That is quite the charge to end the season and any voters swithering over who the MVP will probably consider that before they submit their ballot.

Stats attack ends the argument

The native of Sombor, in Serbia, leads the NBA in PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is second in rebounds per game, ninth in points per game, and eighth in assists per game while averaging 26.8 points, 13.7 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.40 steals in 33.3 minutes.

About PER (Player Efficiency Rating)

The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a per-minute rating developed by US columnist John Hollinger. In John's own words, "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance."

No player in NBA history has ever averaged over 25.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists for an entire season but as long as Jokic keeps attacking the boards, scoring at his season average pace and dishing with same pizzazz as always, he's going to.

  • Double-Doubles: Jokic has 64 in 72 games played and will finish as the leader in this category for a second consecutive season.
  • Triple doubles: Jokic's tally of 19 means he has already made sure this is the first season in his career he will finish as the NBA triple-doubles leader over the course of a season. He also individually has more than 19 NBA teams combined. Staggering!
  • Win-shares: Using a metric that estimates the number of wins a player produces for his team throughout the season, measuring both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Jokic is well clear of Rudy Gobert at the top with 15.6 compared to the Frenchman's 11.3. For context, all but four players rank in single digits.
  • Offensive box score plus-minus: When referencing the category which takes box score stats from an individual and team level and tries to estimate player performance relative to the NBA average, Jokic is the clear leader in this category too, ranking at 9.1 ahead of Stephen Curry on 8.3.
  • Defensive box score plus-minus: Even more remarkable though is his impact defensively when using the same metric. He's a 3.0 ahead of Giannis on 2.8 and behind only Draymond Green and Nerlens Noel, who are both minuses in the offensive category.
  • VORP: Showing how necessary he is for his team to win games is the 'Value Over Replacement Player' metric, which has Jokic at 8.8 in a completely different ball park to anyone else. Curry is the next closest on 5.8.
  • Fantasy points: The most important category to the fans, perhaps, and again Jokic is the leader. Probably no surprise that Antetokounmpo and Embiid are second and third respectively. Jokic averages 58.2 fantasy points, Giannis averages 56.8 and Embiid 55.2.
  • PER: The per-minute-production category is standardised at 15 for the league and Jokic is more than double that with a PER of 31.3. Embiid is 30.3 and Giannis is 29.2. These numbers show the remarkable seasons all three players are having.

(Stats correct as of 5 April, and collated per Basketball Reference and NBA.com)

To pick out some other key points, Jokic is the only player in the top 10 for scoring, rebounding and assists and also in field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage and countless others that we didn't even reference above.

Winning without major backup

Jamal Murray, left, and Michael Porter Jr. pictured on the sidelines watching the Denver Nuggets
Image: Jamal Murray, left, and Michael Porter Jr. pictured on the sidelines watching the Denver Nuggets

Those metrics, although outlining his cast iron claim for MVP alongside the potentially historical significance of the season and his current form, are just part of his case.

Another key aspect of his claim is the fact he has led a team without his second and third leading scoring options (Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.) to very similar records as Philadelphia and Milwaukee. A pair of wins to complete the regular season would see the Nuggets finish with 50 wins.

Porter Jr. managed just nine games this season while Murray has remained out for injury across the long-term. The fact that Jokic has just about secured a playoff spot without the need for a play-in (the Nuggets are 2.0 games clear of Minnesota in 7th with just two games left) in a stacked Western Conference, compiling a record (48-32) similar to that of the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers (both 48-30) when both teams have had much stronger backup casts to lean on is another key aspect as to why he can be the only logical choice for MVP.

Defensive growth sees Jokic address key weakness

It's also important to factor in the aesthetically pleasing nature of how the Serbian plays. Growing up as a point guard who then took a growth spurt was the first in many steps as he became probably the best passing big man the league has ever seen and it has led to this point. All three of the contenders are fun to watch and Jokic has probably the most flair on the offensive side.

His growth defensively though is something which deserves acknowledgement and means you cannot just use the work on the defensive end as a stick to beat Jokic within the MVP conversation.

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Nikola Jokic produced this game-saving block in the dying seconds as the Denver Nuggets beat the Houston Rockets

I mentioned the defensive box score plus-minus stat earlier, but he is also recording blocks (0.9) and steals (1.4) at a career-high clip and is now a difficult target for people to attack at the rim. Tellingly, a lot of these big defensive plays have come in the fourth quarter of games, which is when it counts.

Wes Unseld Jr. is now the coach of the Washington Wizards, but he was part of the staff at Denver when Jokic was a rookie and realised quite quickly he was dealing with a unique talent, but he believes it's hard work which has carried him to such heady heights.

"Just his approach. Everyone talks about his talent," Unseld said. "He's an A+ human being, one of the nicest people you'll ever be around but his approach, everything he does is detailed, there's a purpose to it. He's one of the hardest practice players you've ever been around. It's kind of a unique tandem when you see a high-calibre MVP candidate approach day-to-day the way he does. That's probably why he is where he is."

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Highlights of the Denver Nuggets visit to the Washington Wizards in Week 22 of the NBA

During last month's clash against Unseld's Wizards team Jokic also had two steals and a clean block on Kristaps Porzingis to thwart Washington's attack.

"Biggest thing for him is he bought into it," said Unseld, talking about his defense. "I think he got tired of the narrative that he was a poor defender. I think teams still think they can pick on him as a weak link, and the numbers prove the other way."

They definitely do. The numbers defensively are impressive, the numbers offensively are historically-good and he also passes the eye-test with flying colours.

Nikola Jokic is the 2021-22 NBA MVP and the voters should confirm that when they submit their ballots within the coming week or so.

The NBA regular season action races towards its conclusion with more live NBA games (TV listings here) on Sky Sports this week, subscribe to watch the live action.

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