What’s wrong with the floundering Houston Rockets?
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Friday 14 December 2018 05:08, UK
Six months ago the Houston Rockets were narrowly beaten in the Western Conference finals. Today they sit second from bottom of the West with a losing record. What’s gone wrong? Lee Harvey examines the issues afflicting Mike D’Antoni’s team.
The Rockets are 26 games into the season. Their struggles can no longer be explained away as an early-season blip or a sluggish start.
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Houston need to recover their best form quickly or get left behind in a closely-contested Western Conference. The bad news is that they have more than one problem to solve.
Offense
James Harden is not the problem. The 2017/18 league MVP is putting up almost identical numbers to his previous campaign (albeit with a few more turnovers) when he led the Rockets to 65 wins.
The glaring difference has been with the offensive output of Chris Paul. Whether the 33-year-old 'Point God' is carrying an injury or just one vital year older, his numbers to date suggest a decline in his previously elite production.
Paul is scoring less points but playing more minutes. His overall field goal percentage is down four per cent against on last season (42.0 - the lowest of his 13-year career - versus 46.0). His three-point shooting has also fallen by four per cent (33.9 per compared to last season's 38.0).
The real CP3 is still there, as evidenced by his triple-double in Houston's 111-104 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. But the Rockets need to see him much more often.
Loss of pace and balance
As a team, the Rockets are playing at a slower pace than last year, at a time when the majority of the league are playing more quickly. In 2017/18, the Rockets placed 13th in the league at 97.6 possessions per game. This season they rank 29th at 95.9, something you would never expect from a team coached by D'Antoni, the pioneer of the 'seven seconds or less' offense.
The slower pace might seem of small significance but those missing two possessions can be the difference between a narrow win or defeat, or closing out a win in regulation instead of going to overtime.
Clunky offensive performances against Oklahoma City (Houston scored a meagre 80 points), Minnesota (91 points) and twice against the Utah Jazz (89 and 91 points respectively) suggests a lack of overall offensive flow and that the balance between dribble-heavy isolation plays (favoured by Paul and Harden) and moving the ball to create open three-point shots (which D'Antoni certainly prefers) they had last season has become skewed this term.
Defense
Carmelo Anthony was not the problem. Before Melo was banished with a view to a future trade or even retirement, opponents were singling him out and he was being scored on at will.
The interesting thing is that the Rockets have got even worse on defense since Anthony left the team. Their defensive rating (points conceded per 100 possessions) at the point of Anthony's final game with the team was 109.9, 21st in the league.
After 26 games, that figure has worsened to at 113.7, 26th in the league.
Their defensive guru of last season, Jeff Bzdelik, came out of retirement to rejoin the team after Thanksgiving, but his presence has not arrested the decline.
In 2017/18, the Rockets owned the league's sixth best defensive rating (106.1). The summer departure of 'three and D' wingmen Luc Mbah A Moute and Trevor Ariza does not explain a fall of his magnitude.
Their replacements James Ennis and Anthony, have not produced the defensive effort of Mbah A Moute and Ariza, leaving the Rockets' remaining elite stopper PJ Tucker stretched beyond his limit on the defensive end.
Mbah A Moute and Ariza's absence has also led to a precipitous fall in the Rockets' defensive rebounding. They ranked 10th in the league last season, this term they rank 30th. That means opponents are finding it much easier to create second-chance opportunities to score.
Misfiring from three
Just like last season, the Rockets are still taking more three-point shots (41.7 per game) than anybody else.
Unfortunately, they are making less of them than they did last year - 14.0 compared to a league-leading 15.3 per game.
Last season Houston made 36.2 per cent of their three-balls. This year that figure stands at a below-league-average 33.6.
Individually, the three-point percentage of their best players (apart from Harden) have fallen through the floor. Paul's three-point accuracy is down four per cent, Gordon's is down six per cent. Gerald Green has dropped off too.
In theory, three-point shooting is the most straightforward issue for the Rockets to remedy. Under D'Antoni, the team will always jack threes. Their perimeter shooters are better shooters than their current stats suggest. Over time, those shots will surely start to drop.
Their problems with team defense and offensive flow may prove harder to fix. At their current pace, the Rockets, a team that won 65 games last year, would finish the season with a losing (sub .500) record. That is a drop-off normally seen only when a franchise player departs and is not replaced (see LeBron James leaving Cleveland).
The Rockets have had 26 games to find some answers to their problems yet nothing has changed. Time is running out on their season.
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