Watch Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers live on Sky Sports Arena in the early hours of Thursday morning (1:45am), full replay at 8am
Tuesday 29 September 2020 16:25, UK
The Miami Heat are a dangerous team with nothing to lose but will that be enough for them to shock favourites the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals?
This is a great Finals match-up. We have got the Lakers - the team we expected would get there all along - versus the Miami Heat, a team no one saw coming, a team with an underdog mentality where they have a different guy stepping up every night.
It's a match-up of opposites that is exciting and I do not know fully what to expect. The Heat are extremely dangerous because they have nothing to lose. If you ask the guys on their team, they do not like that underdog label even though they were not expected to get to the Finals. Whereas LeBron James is in the Finals for the ninth time in the last 10 seasons.
I have the Lakers edging the series because of their size, defensive and star power. I am picking the Lakers to win in six games but I could easily see this series going the full seven. They have more star power, more experience and, of course, LeBron James.
Miami have a lot of depth in general but not much of if comes at the big man spots. They are going to have to use Bam on 'AD'. I would not be surprised to see Jae Crowder defend Davis at times, too. Look even deeper down their bench and they have Kelly Olynyk and guys like that. But Bam is their best head-to-head guy against 'AD'.
Will that role take away from what Adebayo gives Miami on the offensive end? One-hundred per cent, yes. You are asking him to play full throttle at both ends of the floor. And the Heat rely on him so much on the offensive end. The effort it will take to defend Davis will take it out of Bam but if there is anyone up for a challenge like that it is him. He has a great motor, he is really strong, can play a whole game if needed and never looks like he gets too tired. It's a great individual match-up.
When it comes to the Lakers guarding Adebayo, they have Davis, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to throw at him, real depth at the big man spot. Bam is a handful, you are not going to stop him but you can slow him down by throwing that platoon of bodies against him.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra will roll out the zone against the Lakers, the defense that caused the Boston Celtics so much trouble in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Lakers' biggest weakness has been their three-point shooting. Danny Green, the guy they bought in to be their main three-point threat, hasn't really contributed on that front throughout the playoffs. LeBron has shown he can shoot the three in spurts but he has shot under 30 per cent from three-point range in both of the Lakers' previous series. He is much effective going downhill, attacking the basket. The Heat will want to keep him out on that three-point line.
If the outside shooting is not there for the Lakers, they will rely on James, Davis and Rajon Rondo to break down Miami's zone. There is a lot of drive-and-kick, a lot of penetrating then dishing the ball when it comes to beating a zone. The Lakers have playmakers with size. When Davis is on the floor, he can play you from out at the three-point line all the way in to the basket. A zone will slow the Lakers down but will not stop them.
Miami are the complete opposite, three-point shooting is their big strength. They just need consistency from their shooters. Tyler Herro has done a great job of stepping up over the last few games. I think Boston had Duncan Robinson scouted to the 'max' but I feel he is due to have a big game pretty soon.
Another thing I have seen from the Lakers over the course of the playoffs is the growth of their team chemistry. They have started to trust each other a lot more. But chemistry has been Miami's biggest strength. In my opinion, they have had the best team chemistry of any of the squads in the bubble. They play with passion and they play for each other.
There is no evident superstar, even though Butler is their clear leader. Goran Dragic is their leading scorer in these playoffs. It can be any given guy on any given night. That what makes the Heat so dangerous and also really hard to scout, not least when you have a rookie like Tyler Herro coming off the bench and scoring 37 points!
Miami also have championship experience on their bench in the form of Andre Iguodala. He can guard a guy like James, we have seen him do it in the Finals before. The Heat wings versus James is going to be an interesting match-up, seeing LeBron going against Butler, Crowder and Iguodala. Miami have a lot of depth to throw at him.
Miami have the fourth fewest transition points per game of the 16 playoffs teams, per nba.com/stats. That's a reflection of their game. They like to set up plays, they are also militaristic. You see them run Herro and Robinson off screens, they try to wear teams down with their offense and pick their spots to attacks. I expect to see them run a lot of sets.
The keys for the Heat are their defense and controlling the pace of the game. They are going to want to slow down the tempo and play in the halfcourt. They have to keep the superstar duo of James and Davis passive and force the Lakers to rely on their role players.
Jimmy Butler will be key to Miami's hopes. He has shown up when he needs to but I want to see him be even more aggressive and be that playmaker and finisher down the stretch of games in these Finals. Miami have a young, inexperienced roster that needs someone to follow. Jimmy is that guy.
What will give me confidence early in the series that the Lakers are going to win it? Seeing them attacking the paint, wearing down those Heat defenders inside. LeBron is the guy I expect to set the tone, being aggressive, always attacking, pushing the pace, getting easy points and attacking, attacking, attacking the basket.
The Lakers have lost opening games twice in the three series they have played so far, but the Finals are different. If I am the Lakers I want to get the job done as quickly as possible because the Heat are a team that has shown they can linger in series. I think we will see the Lakers throw the first punch in Game 1.
Watch Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers live on Sky Sports Arena in the early hours of Thursday morning (1:45am), full replay at 8am
