NFL Week 17 predictions - do you agree with our picks?
Wednesday 30 December 2015 18:09, UK
Richard Graves looks ahead to Sunday's full line-up of Week 17 fixtures and picks his winners as the playoff race continues...
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New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills - Live on Sky Sports 2 from 5.30pm on Sunday
If the playoffs began today, the New York Jets would be there following last weekend's thrilling overtime win over the New England Patriots. It was a game in which the Jets showed plenty of character after seeing the Patriots come back to force OT but then taking advantage of New England's decision to kick the ball away and making them pay by scoring a touchdown.
The Bills gained a hard fought win over the Cowboys but were far from impressive - indicative of a disappointing season for them. Last weekend's win was only their second in their last six games. Surprisingly for a Rex Ryan coached team it's their defense which has been most disappointing. A unit which led the league in sacks last season is 31st this year. In contrast the Jets have been outstanding. They have 37 sacks this year, their defense ranks sixth overall and concedes an average of 19.5 points per game.
If the Jets win, they book their place in the post season.
Pick: New York Jets
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Live on Sky Sports 2 from 9pm on Sunday
The Kansas City Chiefs clinched a playoff place with victory over the Browns last weekend but a win over Oakland on Sunday combined with a Denver loss would give them the AFC West title as well - something that appeared near impossible when they marched into Wembley with a 2-5 record earlier this season.
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Nine straight wins have transformed their season and their Week 2 loss to Denver is their only divisional defeat this season and it gives them the tie breaker over the Broncos. Their offense hasn't exactly been full of big plays but it has been more than adequate. They average 25.5 points per game - good enough to rank them inside the NFL's top 10. Meanwhile their defense is ranked eighth overall, concedes just 18 points per game (second only behind Cincinnati) and they're fourth with 41 sacks this season. Only Carolina have a better turnover differential than the Chiefs' +15.
It's a tough ask for a young and relatively inexperienced Raiders team to go into Arrowhead and overcome the Chiefs. Especially when you consider Kansas City beat them 34-20 just a month ago, in Oakland. This will be the final game as a professional for veteran Raiders' defensive back Charles Woodson in a career which will surely see him finish in the Hall of Fame but it's unlikely the Chiefs will allow him to retire on a winning note.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers - Live on Sky Sports 2 from 1am on Monday
This is the game of the week and as a result gets a live slot on Sky Sports!
The NFC North title is on the line as the Packers host the Vikings at Lambeau Field - both sides locked together with a 10-5 record. By virtue of their win in Minnesota in November, Green Bay currently occupy top spot but a reverse of that result will see Minnesota clinch the division.
For the Packers, these are troubling times. Last weekend QB Aaron Rodgers was sacked more times (9) than Green Bay scored points (8). Their wide receivers aren't able to get open when faced with press coverage and as a result, Rodgers is taking more hits as he's forced to hold onto the ball longer than usual.
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In contrast, there's nothing complicated about the Vikings offense. In Adrian Peterson they have the NFL's leading rusher with 1418 yards. If he's able to get going, that opens up the options for QB Teddy Bridgewater.
In their previous meeting the Packers were able to shut him down and Vikings Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner was widely criticised for not staying with the run game long enough. Unless the Packers jump out to an early 20 point lead, do not expect that to happen this time.
The Vikings are ninth in the NFL with 38 sacks and rank seventh with a +5 turnover differential. Green Bay's offense ranks 24th overall and their defense is 21st against the run, allowing 116.9 yards per game. In many eyes it'll be an upset if the Packers lose at home but not in mine.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
What if? That must be the question being asked in Atlanta right now. A team that started the season with five straight wins, slipped into a tail spin before winning their last two games to sit on the edge of the playoffs with a 8-7 record. But the tie breaker means they have no chance of finishing ahead of Seattle and claiming the final wild card place.
Yet this is a team with all the playmakers at critical positions on offense and a defense which has given up around 21 points per game this season. Last weekend they showed everyone what they were capable of when they ended the last remaining undefeated streak in the NFL as they knocked off the Carolina Panthers.
The Saints have been wildly erratic. A week after losing to the Lions, they comfortably beat the Jaguars but once again we saw why their defense has been a cause for alarm this year as high priced free agent signing, Brandon Browner was beaten for a 90 yard touchdown.
When these two met in Week 6, it was New Orleans who ended the Falcons perfect start, helped by multiple Atlanta turnovers. That's an issue the Falcons appear to have cleaned up in recent weeks and as long as that remains the case on Sunday, they'll avenge that Week 6 loss
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The last remaining undefeated streak is over and now the Carolina Panthers must win this Sunday in order to secure home field advantage. If they don't, the door is left open for the Arizona Cardinals to take that spot.
To lose at Atlanta - just two weeks after hanging 38 points on the same opponent - was a surprise. Much maligned WR Ted Ginn Jnr was forced out of the game early with a calf injury depriving Carolina of a deep threat and that certainly seemed to affect them. No matter what, the Panthers will have a first round bye in the playoffs but they'd like home field advantage throughout as well and that means any thoughts of resting players for the regular season finale will now be shelved.
The Buccaneers also lost last weekend. Despite QB Jameis Winston finding the end zone with a successful Hail Mary at the end of the game, they still went down 26-21 at home to the Chicago Bears. Tampa Bay are a team on the rise but they'll have to wait until next season for another crack at the playoffs.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
If the Lions had shown the same kind of form throughout the season as we've seen since their Wembley mauling by the Chiefs, they'd be looking forward to a run in the playoffs now. In the second half of the season they've gone 5-2, having been 1-7 through their first eight games.
The Chicago Bears have also had high spots mixed with some big disappointments. As a result, like Detroit, they're just one game away from planning for 2016.
This could be a big game for two of the most recognisable names in the NFL. Both the Lions WR Calvin Johnson and Bears RB Matt Forte maybe playing for the final time for their respective franchises. Both players command big contracts and there's some uncertainty surrounding whether either will be kept on the roster for next season.
Detroit come into this contest off of back to back wins while Chicago enjoyed a good win on the road in Tampa Bay last weekend but man for man, the Lions are the better team and they should be too much for the Bears to handle.
Pick: Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
The calamitous end to Monday night's game in Denver means the Cincinnati Bengals now need help if they are to secure a first round bye in the playoffs. As the ball slipped through QB AJ McCarron's hands, perhaps so too did home field advantage in the post season.
The Bengals now host a Baltimore side fresh off of a huge, morale boosting win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens - minus their starting QB, RB, WR and best LB - knocked off the team many perceived to be the hottest in football right now. In the context of this season the win means little to the Ravens.
At home, this is a game the Bengals should win. While they too are without their first choice QB, an MRI showed nothing more than a sprained wrist in AJ McCarron's non throwing arm. They have WR AJ Green and hope to have TE Tyler Eiffert available again plus a defense which leads the league in points allowed, giving up just 17 per game. Baltimore have won only five games this season and their last hurrah may well have been last weekend.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
This time last week the Steelers' fate was in their own hands, now it is not. A shock defeat on the road at rivals, Baltimore not only meant the Ravens swept Pittsburgh in the AFC North this season but also means unless the New York Jets lose on Sunday, the Steelers will have no chance of making the playoffs.
This is not going to be an easy contest for Pittsburgh either. Since Johnny Manziel returned as the starting quarterback for Cleveland, they've been much more competitive. The Kansas City Chiefs were left nervously hanging on last weekend before the clock thwarted a last minute drive which took Cleveland deep into Chiefs territory and they'll be keen to claim the scalp of a division rival, as the Ravens did last weekend.
On paper the Steelers should have too much for the Browns; Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown and co against Johnny Manziel, Isiah Crowell and Gary Barnidge shouldn't be an even contest. Pittsburgh should win but..they lost to a team with Ryan Mallett at QB last time out!
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East has done nothing to inspire any optimism this season so it's only fitting that this clash to round off the season is equally uninspiring.
The Redskins have played well at the right time of the year and have clinched the division title already. If they beat Dallas they'll do so with a winning record. Lose, and they'll finish 8-8.
The Cowboys have won just four games all year. Coming off a 12 game winning season, to say they've been disappointing would be an understatement. One of those four wins though was at the expense of the Redskins and this is one of the more heated rivalries in the NFL.
The Redskins will want to take some momentum into the playoffs and will expect to avenge their earlier defeat this season
Pick: Washington Redskins
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The Bengals weren't the only team ruing their defeat on Monday night. Had they won, then by virtue of the tie breaker, the Texans would have been crowned AFC South champions. As it is, if they beat the Jaguars this Sunday, they'll have booked themselves into a home playoff game next week.
The Texans routed Tennessee last weekend with Brandon Weeden leading them to victory. Even so they'll hope Bryan Hoyer passes concussion protocol this week and is able to start at quarterback.
The Jaguars slim hopes of claiming the AFC South title for themselves evaporated with a disappointing loss in New Orleans. Once again their porous defense was exposed as they went down 38-27 but they do still pose a significant threat to the Texans.
Blake Bortles understanding with WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns has improved week on week. Both are over 1000 receiving yards and both have double digit touchdown receptions. That should make this a good contest as Houston have the number three ranked defense and give up 20 points per game.
The Texans were winners in their previous meeting this season - I expect them to be victorious again.
Pick: Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
If the NFL Draft were today the Tennessee Titans would be the first team on the clock, and unless they cause an upset in Indianapolis that's the way it'll be on April 28th.
The Indianapolis Colts need to win and hope the Texans lose on Sunday to claim the AFC South title and a place in the playoffs. It sounds straight forward enough, in reality it's anything but.
At the time of writing Andrew Luck still hasn't been cleared to play as he recovers from a lacerated kidney. Matt Hasselbeck is described as "extremely doubtful" with a shoulder injury in his throwing arm and Charlie Whitehurst has been placed on season ending IR. QB's Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley have both been signed to the active roster, meaning along with Stephen Morris - himself only signed last week - any of them could appear under centre.
If you're expecting a game for the purists, this encounter will not be to your liking but if its drama, excitement and a number of mistakes you're after...this may be just the game!
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Following a controversial overtime coin toss the New England Patriots enter the final week of the regular season in danger of losing their grip on the AFC's number one seed. Their decision to kick the ball away rather than receive it in overtime against the Jets was bemusing, the official's decision to let the Jets decide which way they should play (when it was New England's call) was highly controversial. It led to the New York Jets driving down the field and scoring a walk off touchdown.
All that means that New England must go down to Miami and get a win to ensure home field advantage in the post season.
The Dolphins are a mess. I wrote a week ago that they appeared to have given up on their season as they capitulated in San Diego. That view was reinforced as they couldn't punch in the game winning score after having four attempts inside the Colts 10 yard line! Did I also mention they played the majority of the game against a Colts team with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback?! If that wasn't embarrassing enough, the wife of Miami cornerback Brent Grimes then took to social media to criticise the play of QB Ryan Tannehill following the game. In short, Miami need the off season to regroup and this should be a complete mismatch.
Pick: New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Just a few weeks ago these two sides may have eyed up this fixture as a potential NFC East title decider, but their form has been so poor and they are both already out of the race.
The Giants welcome back star WR Odell Beckham Jnr after serving a one game suspension, but are coming off the back of a 49-17 drilling in Minnesota last weekend.
The Eagles surrendered their claim to the division crown in a poor performance against the Washington Redskins and that has signaled the end of the Chip Kelly era. On Tuesday, the Eagles fired their head coach, having handed him control of all personnel decisions less than 12 months earlier.
It's believed the man who allowed marquee players such as DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin to walk out the door had lost the locker room and did nothing to impress owner Jeff Lurie in a meeting earlier this week.
When the Eagles and Giants met in October it was Philadelphia who prevailed winning 27-7, but this is now a team in transition, with a defense which has conceded 35 points or more in five of their last six games
Pick: New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals can still secure home field advantage through the playoffs but to do so they need Carolina to lose and they must beat NFC West rivals the Seattle Seahawks.
The first meeting between these two teams this season was a classic, as Seattle rallied from an early deficit only for Arizona to come back and claim a famous win. It was a victory which effectively anointed them the division champions.
Since that defeat the Seahawks have been impressive - winning five games in a row. That made last weekend's loss at home to the St. Louis Rams all the more surprising but this is a mouth-watering clash to finish the regular season.
The Cardinals have the number one ranked offense in the NFL, the Seahawks are ranked fifth. The Cardinals have the number one ranked scoring offense (32.2 points per game), the Seahawks are ranked eighth (25.8 points per game).
On defense Seattle are ranked second overall, Arizona are fifth. While Seattle are third in points allowed (18.1 points per game), Arizona are fifth (18.5 points per game).
The Cardinals have forced 33 turnovers this year compared to the Seahawks 19. The only thing missing from this contest could be the hardnosed running of Marshawn Lynch...and Seattle are refusing to rule him out.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
They lived on the edge at times on Monday night - trailing by 14, missing a field goal to win the game but somehow, some way, the Denver Broncos found a way to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. That means if they beat the Chargers, Denver have a first round bye in the playoffs.
If New England were to somehow lose in Miami, a Denver win would make them the number one seed in the AFC and ensure home field advantage through the post season.
The end of the season probably can't come soon enough for the San Diego Chargers. A season plagued by injuries has seen them limp to a 4-11 record but to their credit they've never quit on their campaign - highlighted by their offense which is still ranked sixth overall.
That being said they now face one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Denver rank fourth overall, fourth in points allowed (18.4 per game), fifth in takeaways (26) and lead the league with 49 sacks.
Pick: Denver Broncos
St. Louis Rams @San Francisco 49ers
Aside from where these two teams pick in next April's draft, this is as meaningless an end-of-season encounter as it gets.
The San Francisco 49ers are bottom of the NFC West with a 4-11 record while the St. Louis Rams sit immediately above them in third with a 7-8 record.
These are the two worst offenses in football - the 49ers ranked 31st, the Rams, 32nd. The 49ers score fewer points than anyone else (14.6 per game), The Rams are ranked 30th, scoring an average of 17.6 points per game.
In every way this shapes up to be a tough, attritional matchup, short on big plays but St. Louis do have something about them and it revolves around rookie RB Todd Gurley.
Despite missing the first few games this season he's 3rd in total rushing yards with 1108 this season and helped hem to a shock win in Seattle last weekend. If he gets going on Sunday, there's only one winner in this game.
Pick: St. Louis Rams
