The 2023 NFL season is off to a typically frenetic start - but where will the next twist come?; watch the Los Angeles Chargers at the Minnesota Vikings from 6pm, followed by Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs in the 9.25pm kick-off - live on Sky Sports NFL
Sunday 24 September 2023 14:20, UK
Spiky press conferences in Hollywood, finger-pointing in Chicago, backtracking of finger-pointing in Chicago, debilitating defense, Burrow's Bengals, Baker's Bucs, Arthur's Atlanta, Puka Nacua, meaningless Hail Marys and a Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift axis. The NFL script is sizzling.
Atypical to modern series consumption, football favours drip-feeding its twists in play-hard-to-get weekly doses as opposed to squandering its depth of erratic deviations by way of an outright binge. The Pilot shocked, Episode Two thrilled and now we sit down for the third edition with plots upon plots entrenched with 'what next?' intrigue.
Matt Damon is the 2023 NFL season, and the hatted gentlemen of The Adjustment Bureau are desperately scrambling to contain him in pursuit of some sense of equilibrium, to no avail.
Week Three feels like Week 10. Chaos reigns. The NFL is being very NFL.
"To make it really, really clear, I know the outside noise, but no one in our building is panicking, no one is flinching at any situation," Bears General Manager Ryan Poles told reporters week.
It all felt a tad Michael Scott frantically calling for his Dunder Mifflin employees to 'stay calm' while doing anything but staying calm as Dwight's fire drill sent the office into a frenzy, Justin Fields playing the role of a Jim Halpert attempting to knock down the door with a copier machine and DJ Moore the role of Oscar as his legs pierce the ceiling mid-escape.
All is not calm in Chicago, it would seem. Poles' comments followed that of Fields earlier in the week when, while dissecting the offense's spluttering start to the year, he suggested "coaching" could have played a part in why he felt "robotic and not playing like myself" during the Week Two loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Social media eyes widened while hands reached for popcorn as local beat writers fed the quotes through, Fields later addressed reporters for a second time at his locker to insist the comments had been 'taken out of context'. A message of 'all is well' was reinforced the next day when Fields hollered a local photographer in his direction, at which point he and offensive coordinator Luke Gesty shared a jest-driven hug. Well played.
A sound-bite from the Bucs defeat would pile onto the narrative as wide receiver Moore agreed with linebacker Devin White's suggestion the Bears were not using him correctly: "Oh tell me about it." Yikes.
Fields, Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus didn't, though, shy from admitting there are problems on the field; the Bears offense ranks 27th in EPA/play while Fields is 31st in EPA+CPOE composite through two weeks. Chicago's young quarterback has been marred by ponderous footwork in the pocket, hesitancy in trusting himself to let rip into open windows by NFL standards, and moving slowly through full-field progressions. All within an offense that has drifted from the designed runs and zone read concepts that showcased one of the league's most devastating athletes in 2022, while neglecting to cushion their play-caller with the kind of pre-snap motion and decoying eye candy fuelling the flourishing Kyle Shanahan systems of the world.
There is no rhythm or identity to the Bears' scheme, Fields is tentative in the pocket and missing opportunities when they do present themselves, and the offensive line remains a limiting factor. Meanwhile, their defensive specialist head coach has seen his unit rank last in 32nd in DVOA in 2022 and start the current season 28th in EPA/play. What's more, Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned suddenly this week.
The Bears were supposed to build on the successes of Fields last season, continuing to accentuate his explosiveness on the ground while guiding him to a more diverse and rounded offense. They are 0-2 and there is reason for concern.
Next on the list of TV analogies is Ross insisting he is "fine" after finding out about Rachel and Joey. Enter, Brandon Staley.
Boasting an uber-impressive Justin Herbert at quarterback comes at the price of soaring expectations, as much ultimately landing Staley on a warm-to-lukewarm seat as early as his appointment as Los Angeles Chargers head coach in 2021.
Squandering a 27-0 lead during last season's Wild Card matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars did not help his cause, nor does a reminder of it. Staley did not taking kindly to a question from one reporter asking whether the loss had left a lasting effect on his team following Sunday's overtime defeat to the Tennessee Titans.
He said it hadn't. It felt like it had.
"I'm not worried about the Jacksonville loss. The Jacksonville loss hasn't carried onto the season whatsoever," Staley said in his postgame press conference. "If you've seen our training camp or you've seen the way we've played in the first two games, it hasn't had an impact on our team whatsoever. Our team is connected, our team has played its heart out in two games, and we've lost two tough games. It has nothing to do with the Jacksonville game and if you ask anyone in our locker room, it has nothing to do with the Jacksonville game. And that's just the truth.
"It's a convenient storyline for you and for everybody else, but it's not the truth. We've lost two tough games but the guys in that locker room, the men in that locker room, they are finishers and they have what it takes and we're excited to prove ourselves."
In Staley's defence, and as rightly pointed out by Around the NFL's Gregg Rosenthal, it felt a little like a cop-out from the reporter in question to forward it as a generalised belief rather than taking ownership of it.
Regardless, the reality is the Chargers continue to fall inexcusably short of rewarding their franchise quarterback's production and talent with defining contributions from one of the league's most expensively-assembled defenses. Staley earned the job as a defensive guru, his light box invite-the-run system designed to eradicate explosive plays now ironically conceding explosive plays at the highest rate in the league.
The Chargers are ranked last in EPA per dropback, 28th in success rate, last in yards allowed per game, last in passing yards per game and second-last in pressure rate. What might have been a warm-to-lukewarm seat on which he arrived is beginning to burn. Granted, Herbert is not blameless for an inability to bury games, but this is on a defense failing miserably to hold up its end of the bargain.
At the other end of the scale, Myles Garrett stares at the threat of meaningless production in an offense quarterbacked by a slumping Deshaun Watson, the struggles of whom are about to be amplified following the loss of Nick Chubb, while TJ Watt's mutant powers always risk futility alongside a Matt Canada-steered Pittsburgh Steelers offense.
Quick. Think of a show or film that started surprisingly well despite modest expectations. Think! One will come to me.
A once-No 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield is currently 7th in EPA/play through two weeks having completed 47 of 68 passes for 501 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions at a fifth-best passer rating of 105.1 amid an effort to reignite his NFL career with the Buccaneers. Go figure. Having Tristan Wirfs blocking for you helps, having Mike Evans to throw to helps, having the Bears to play helps. Stay tuned for the Baker reboot.
Elsewhere, in Atlanta, Arthur Smith is gracing the league with unapologetic Arthur Smith, rolling back the days and lighting up teams with some razzle dazzle smashmouth football within which he cares not for your Fantasy Football predicaments. Tyler Allgeier? Bijan Robinson? Desmond Ridder? A soon-to-be-healthy Cordarrelle Patterson? Keep guessing. The 2-0 Falcons are force-feeding their zone read/RPO-driven offense down the mouths of defenses to the sound of entertained fans, spearheaded by the ballet feet of Bijan while leaving the role of Kyle Pitts a mystery. Who knows how far Ridder can take them? Who cares? They might be every scheme nerd's most fun viewing experience aside from Mike McDaniel's Dolphins.
And Sam Howell. The Washington Commanders like Sam Howell. The 2020 Sam Howell that was tipped to be a first-round pick has seemingly re-emerged upon taking over as starter this season, most having admittedly overlooked what a difference it had made to lose Dyami Brown, Javonte Williams and Michael Carter at North Carolina as his draft stock fell. He threw two touchdowns in Washington's 35-33 comeback win over the Broncos in Week Two, the highlight of his performance being a double-coverage-splitting 30-yard touchdown strike to Terry McLaurin. A real wowzer moment. He looks unfazed by pressure, a willing pocket manipulator, a confident operator out of structure, a shrewd defense-freezer with his eyes and a competent middle-of-the-field thrower for a quarterback of smaller stature. He might be good. The 2-0 Commanders might be good.
The Los Angeles Rams might also be good, contrary to perceptions of a gruelling refurbishment in the wake of a heavily-funded Super Bowl charge. Rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua just set a new record for most catches made by any player through his first two games in NFL history with 25, and currently sits second to Justin Jefferson in receiving yards with 266; 2022 fifth-round running back Kyren Williams has pushed out Cam Akers to win the starting job after scoring four touchdowns in two games; and a word to rookie guard Steve Avila, who looks every bit a stalwart-in-the-making after being selected in the second round out of TCU. The Rams offense ranks first in downs per game, tied-first in red zone efficiency and second in yards per game after two games, with Cooper Kupp still to return. They stomped over the Seattle Seahawks and were mightily competitive against the 49ers, despite their glaring shortage of established stars outside of Aaron Donald and Matthew Stafford. Sean McVay? Still pretty smart.
The opening weeks of the season have been staggeringly cruel on an injury front, to levels of disbelief even by the NFL's standards.
Aaron Rodgers of course looms as the most high profile absentee having injected legitimate Super Bowl hope into the Jets after arriving in the offseason via a trade from the Green Bay Packers. The Jets appear committed to moving forward under former No 2 overall pick Zach Wilson, though Sunday's lop-sided defeat to the Dallas Cowboys served up ominous signs of a Championship-calibre defense battling to little reward.
Oh to be a running back. Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Saquon Barkley (Giants), Aaron Jones (Packers) and David Montgomery (Lions) are all nursing injuries, the Baltimore Ravens have lost J.K. Dobbins for the year, and Cleveland are without the face of their offense in Nick Chubb following his season-ending knee injury sustained in the loss to the Steelers. Jonathan Taylor also remains sidelined having been placed on the PUP list following his offseason trade pursuit.
It continued on Thursday as Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs suffered a season-ending torn ACL in practice, inflicting a major blow to a Dan Quinn defense that had looked as good as any in the league.
Anthony Richardson (concussion), Odell Beckham Jr (ankle), Andrew Thomas (hamstring), Derek Stingley Jr (hamstring), Jaycee Horn (hamstring), Jack Conklin (knee), CJ Gardner-Johnson (pectoral), Diontae Johnson (hamstring) are all among those also dealing with injury problems. A brutal, unforgiving start to the year.
So what next? The New York Giants have been shutout 40-0 and come back from 20 points down to beat the Arizona Cardinals; Russell Wilson has tossed a pin-ball Hail Mary only to fail with the subsequent two-point conversion, Travis Kelce is supposedly dating Taylor Swift, Indianapolis Colts tight end Kyle Granson has posed for new-born baby-esque photos with a football to celebrate his first touchdown.
The unlikely Brock Purdy story bears increasing resemblance of likeliness as a defining feature of a 49ers Super Bowl quest, while a momentarily-glimmering Jets team stares at the prospect of five more primetime games after losing their primetime slot booker Rodgers four plays into the year.
River Cracraft and Braxton Berrios' Dolphins are torching teams with some added Vic Fangio spice as 'if Tua stays healthy' contenders, while a nagging and increasingly-concerning calf injury to everybody's favourite MVP pick Joe Burrow threatens to derail a Cincinnati Bengals outfit with all the talent to lift a Lombardi.
Josh Allen and the Super Bowl door-knocking Buffalo Bills lost to the Wilson-led Jets before dominating the Las Vegas Raiders, the Philadelphia Eagles were booed by their own fans in a competitive first half against the Minnesota Vikings, and the Kansas City Chiefs offense, which will always find its feet with Patrick Mahomes in the driving seat, has been guilty of sloppy errors early in the season.
The script is giving little away. What will Episode Three serve up?
Watch the Los Angeles Chargers at the Minnesota Vikings from 6pm, followed by Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs in the 9.25pm kick-off - live on Sky Sports NFL
