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Analysis

England's Euro 2024 fixtures, dates and potential route for tournament in Germany

England to play Germany if they progress as group runners-up; But England will qualify as group winners if they beat Slovenia on Tuesday night

Who should Gareth Southgate pick if England's opening game at Euro 2024 was tomorrow?
Image: England's first game on June 16 sees them travel to Gelsenkirchen to take on Serbia

Track England's Euro 2024 fixtures, as well as their potential route through the knockout stages of the tournament in Germany.

After beating Serbia 1-0, a draw against Denmark means that England are almost certain to progress from the group stages.

England next play on Tuesday against Slovenia.

If England beat Slovenia, they would be certain of qualifying as group winners.

But were England to progress as group runners-up, they would face Germany on Saturday night in the last 16.

And were they to beat Germany in that match, it's likely England would play Spain in the quarter-finals.

Were they to qualify for the last 16 as group winners, England would play one of the best third-placed finishers from Groups D, E or F.

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As it stands, that would be Austria, Czech Republic or Slovakia. A quarter-final with either Switzerland or Italy could then await if England win their last-16 tie.

The worst-case scenario for England is if they lose to Slovenia and Denmark beat Serbia. That outcome would see England drop into the third-place table.

However, even in that scenario, England would almost certainly still qualify as one of the best four teams out of the six on four points.

In fact, England will be guaranteed a place in the last 16 if Albania do not beat Spain on Monday. As a result, Opta predicts the Three Lions have a 100 per cent chance of reaching the knockouts.

Progression via the third-place table means England would face Group E winners, currently Romania, or Group F winners, currently Portugal - with Roberto Martinez's side guaranteed progression as group winners, sitting three points clear of second-placed Turkey with a +3 goal swing.

England's last-16 opponent as it stands

  • Group C winners: Austria, Slovakia or Czech Republic
  • Group C runners-up: Germany (guaranteed)
  • Progression via third-place table: Romania or Portugal

Predicted tables and winner

According to Opta, England have an 83.5 per cent chance of topping Group C - the highest probability of any side winning their group among teams who have not yet qualified.

Despite England's shaky start at Euro 2024, Opta predicts Gareth Southgate's side still have a 17 per cent chance of winning the tournament - only France (19 per cent) and Germany (18 per cent) have better chances.

England's potential Euro 2024 route

Round of 16 - England to face Germany if they finish second in their group

If England finish first in Group C:

Sunday June 30 - England vs third-placed side in Group D/E/F (Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen - kick-off 5pm UK time)

If England finish second in Group C:

Saturday June 29 - Germany vs England (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund - kick-off 8pm UK time)

If England finish as one of four best third-place teams:

Monday July 1 - Group F winner vs third-placed side from Group A/B/C (Waldstadion, Frankfurt)

or:

Tuesday July 2 - Group E winners vs third-placed side from Group A/B/C/D (Allianz Arena, Munich)

How are four best third-placed teams decided?

According to UEFA regulations, the following criteria are applied, in the order given:

- Higher number of points
- Superior goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored
- Higher number of wins
- Lower disciplinary points total based on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
- Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings or, if hosts Germany involved, drawing of lots

Quarter-finals

If England finish first in Group C and win round of 16 game:

Saturday July 6 - England vs Winner of 2A vs 2B (Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf - kick-off 5pm UK time)

If England finish second in Group C and win round of 16 game:

Friday July 5 - England vs Winner of 1B vs 3A/D/E/F (MHPArena, Stuttgart - kick-off 5pm UK time)

If England finish as one of four best third-place teams and win round of 16 game:

Friday July 5 - England vs Winner of 2D vs 2E (Volksparkstadion, Hamburg - kick-off 8pm UK time)

or:

Saturday July 6 - England vs Winner of 1D vs 2F (Olympiastadion, Berlin - kick-off 8pm UK time)

Semi-finals

If England finish first in Group C, win round of 16 game and win quarter-final:

Wednesday July 10 - Berlin semi-final winner vs Dusseldorf semi-final winner (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund - kick-off 8pm UK time)

If England finish second in Group C, win round of 16 game and win quarter-final:

Tuesday July 9 - Stuttgart semi-final winner vs Hamburg semi-final winner (Allianz Arena, Munich - kick-off 8pm UK time)

If England finish as one of four best third-place teams, win round of 16 game and win quarter-final:

Tuesday July 9 - Stuttgart semi-final winner vs Hamburg semi-final winner (Allianz Arena, Munich - kick-off 8pm UK time)

or:

Wednesday July 10 - Berlin semi-final winner vs Dusseldorf semi-final winner (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund - kick-off 8pm UK time)

And finally, the Euro 2024 final...

Sunday July 14 - Munich semi-final winner vs Dortmund semi-final winner (Olympiastadion, Berlin - kick-off 8pm UK time)

Which route is best for England?

England’s potential route to the final as group winners…

If all results at Euro 2024 go with the world rankings England’s opponents in the knockout rounds would be…

Round of 16: Sunday June 30 - England vs Austria/Czech Republic/Slovakia (Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen)

Quarter-final: Saturday July 6 – England vs Italy (Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf)

Semi-final: Wednesday July 10 – France vs England; kick-off 8pm (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund)

Final: Sunday July 14 – Spain vs England; kick-off 8pm (Olympiastadion, Berlin)

England might be third-favourites with Opta's 'supercomputer' but they will have to overcome several European heavyweights whichever way they qualify, if they are to go all the way.

England’s potential route to the final as group runners-up…

If England finish second in Group C but all other results at Euro 2024 go with the world rankings, the Three Lions’ opponents in the knockout rounds would be…

Round of 16: Saturday June 29 - Germany vs England (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund)

Quarter-final: Friday July 5 – Spain vs England (MHPArena, Stuttgart)

Semi-final: Tuesday July 9 – England vs Netherlands; kick-off 8pm (Allianz Arena, Munich)

Final: Sunday July 14 – England vs France; kick-off 8pm (Olympiastadion, Berlin)

Using the current FIFA world rankings to plot a possible route, England would have a seemingly easier route to the quarter-finals were they to win their group.

But Euro 2020 conquerors Italy could be a formidable last-eight hurdle, with France - who knocked them out of the last World Cup in Qatar - likely to stand in their way again in the semi-finals.

Should England finish second in their group, they could delay meeting Kylian Mbappe's World Cup finalists until the very last hurdle, but a sterner round-of-16 test would likely await in the shape of hosts Germany.

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