Rafa Nadal's Hamburg win analysed by Mark Petchey
Thursday 6 August 2015 11:35, UK
Rafa Nadal overcame a psychological obstacle to win the Hamburg Open and will make an impact on the US hard-court season, says Mark Petchey.
The Spaniard defeated Fabio Fognini at the German tournament to rack up a confidence-boosting title on Sunday.
We asked Sky Sports expert Petchey to run us through the main talking points of his success.
Mental hurdle of winning
Having won the first set, Nadal was 3-1 up in the second and looking certain to canter to the finish line. But Fognini, who had beaten him twice this year, rallied back and forced Nadal to save two set points before winning 7-5 7-5. Petchey believes the shaky manner of the win will benefit Nadal.
"It’s particularly satisfying for him to defeat Fognini," he said. "If you wipe the floor with someone it’s great but it’s also important to tough out a difficult match.
"If you choose to see the glass as half empty, you could say Rafa is still fragile and should have coasted. My attitude is that he got through a tough set which was easy to lose."
The big points
In his last six defeats, culminating with Stan Wawrinka in Rome, Nadal displayed a break point conversion ratio of just 19 per cent – Petchey believes this is a lack of confidence to commit to important moments of a match.
He said: "If you look back at the tennis he played on the clay in Monte Carlo against Novak Djokovic, he could have won that match. It was 3-3 in the first and second sets and you saw the confidence drop away.
It comes down to the big points. Once you start doing the right things on those points, the wins will come back very quickly.
"When someone goes on a bad run it’s all doom and gloom. But when you actually analyse tennis, particularly between the top guys when they’re playing well, it comes down to the big points. Once you start doing the right things on those points, the wins will come back very quickly.
"If you look at the numbers, even when a player is dominating, they’re only winning 57 per cent of the points. So you can imagine that dropping just a few per cent makes a massive difference. If you don’t make your first serve on a big point that will have a big impact.
"It’s about getting confidence back on the big points."
Accepting Nadal's weaknesses are exposed
The 14-time Grand Slam champion has not resembled the athletic, fast athlete that he once was since his latest return from injury. Petchey believes that opponents such as Fognini have taken advantage of his ill fortune – but it's a problem that he can resolve.
"The guys have worked out a way to beat him, and for a long time there didn’t seem to be a way to beat him," Petchey said. "They’ve found a pattern of play to beat him, and even as a great champion, he might feel like he’s got an Achilles heel.
"If you look at Novak Djokovic, where’s the weakness? How do you hurt him? For Rafa, when he was playing at his best and dominating, that was the case for him too. He was the guy with two forehands, he had no weakness.
"He’s not always able to hit a big down-the-line forehand on a big point, a shot that he loves. Opponents are playing in a way that he finds uncomfortable and it’s a change that he’s having to adapt to."
Nadal can make an impact in America
The US hard-court season is underway, starting with the Washington Open live on Sky Sports 1 HD at 9pm on Monday and continuing to the US Open, which Nadal has won twice.
The Flushing Meadows tournament, also live on Sky Sports at the end of August, could see Nadal return to his best but he'll need some big wins before heading to New York, according to Petchey.
He said: "Winning the Hamburg Open was a small step to where Nadal wants to be. If he hadn’t won this week it starts getting tricky when the balls come quicker on the hard courts.
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"It’s important for him to beat a top-10 player ahead of the US Open – more so than getting his name scratched into another trophy. Getting wins over those top guys is more important than winning a title.
"I think he’ll be a credible force in America. Great champions like Rafa have something special – when the chips are down, people are happily writing them off, they prove they’re just different."
Watch the Washington 500 and every tournament in the US Series leading up to the US Open live on Sky Sports this summer.
