Payne tips England to edge Wallabies
Saturday 3 October 2015 16:23, UK
Sky Sports rugby presenter Alex Payne gives his Sky Bet tips for Saturday's big games involving England and Australia and Scotland's clash with South Africa.
England v Australia (Saturday 8pm)
This is a classic head versus heart debate when it comes to where to put your money.
Imagine yourself in the Twickenham tunnel on Saturday night. Would you want to turn into the England changing room - with the home support, the passion play but the uncertainty and pressure of the occasion? Or would you want to head into the Australia changing room - composed, settled but starring at a desperate group of men and a partisan crowd? For most of this week, I would have headed for the latter.
But, I've come round to England. The Wallabies record away from home is not great - just three wins in their last 10 and one of those was agains the USA. England have won three of the last four between the two at Twickenham, including a 26-17 victory last year. The Wallabies have struggled with indiscipline problem in their first two games, and have concerns over their line-out.
The flashing red lights for England centre on whether they can negate Michael Hooper and David Pocock at the breakdown, whether Ben Youngs, Ben Morgan and Jonathan Joseph are fit to last the course and whether they can hold their nerve in the face of the onslaught. So, what do you play?
I was with the great Wallaby Nathan Sharpe this week who couldn't speak highly enough of full back Israel Folau. He picked him as a big game player who will come to the fore on a night like this, Price Boosted 100/30 for an anytime try with Sky Bet. Worth investigation, when you consider that of the last 10 tries the Wallabies have scored against England at Twickenham, nine have been by backs.
Despite Australia's improvements at scrum time, I think England will look to dominate up front so consider the back row. No 8 Ben Morgan scored a double last year (6/1 anytime), while captain Chris Robshaw crossed the year before (11/1 anytime) - what a story that would be!
I think England will have a fast start, so like them in the race to 10 points (8/11). I fancy Owen Farrell, a try scorer against the Wallabies in 2013, to have a number of chances at goal once again - he missed out on the man of the match award last week to Dan Biggar, but 9/2 is still worth playing on England's 10.
This will be sporting drama at its very best and, all things considered, I think England will find the win, somehow, by 1-5 at 9/2. Here's hoping!
South Africa v Scotland (Saturday,4.45pm)
Prior to the tournament, I had Scotland beating South Africa as my big upset. Unfortunately Japan stole in and took the glory, and as a result the Boks have awoken. Their performance against Samoa was, quietly, one of the most impressive so far and, while they have lost their leader Jean de Villers, his absence is far from the end of the world.
Scotland's recent record against the 'Boks reads only one win in 12, and the last three have been pretty ugly defeats. However, the conditioning Vern Cotter has put his men through means they are much less likely to be bullied on Saturday, and they have more than a fighting chance. But the changes in selection indicate that Scotland have one eye on their game with Samoa, and I think that hands the initiative to the 'Boks.
For South Africa, I really like the axis of Pollard, de Allende and Kriel who combined well against the All Blacks this year. Kriel scored in that game (2/1 anytime on Saturday) and is a potential superstar. Also worth covering JP Pietersen - it is remarkable how often players get on a try scoring roll in the World Cup; the big winger scored a hat-trick against the Samoans, and has crossed in his last two Tests against Scotland.
Scotland's Tim Visser (11/4 anytime) is one of those players who regularly finds his way over the line - 10 in his 22 Tests and three in the last three. Couple this with the fact Scotland's wingers have now scored eight tries in their last four games. It is also worth looking at adopted Scot Josh Strauss; the man with the best beard at the tournament is 9/1 with Sky Bet to score against the land of his birth.
Scotland will be lively, competitive and dangerous but I think their full focus lies elsewhere and I am tipping the Boks to muscle home by 11-15 at a Price Boosted 13/2.
Ireland v Italy (Sunday, 4.45pm)
After two very controlled hit outs, Ireland will be looking to build some real momentum into their campaign this weekend against familiar foe Italy, not that this should be anything another than a comfortable win. In their last 20 meetings, Ireland have only slipped up once to the Italians - two years ago in Rome.
The return of the talisman Sergio Parisse (9/2 anytime) offers the Azzuri a rallying point up front, Michele Campagnaro (11/2 anytime) can produce moments of guile too, but they just don't have enough consistent creativity behind the scrum to cause a side like Ireland any real problems. Three wins in their last 22 tests shows you the scale of their problems - indeed, they were far from convincing against Canada last time out, a side Ireland put 50 on in third gear the week before.
Ireland's back three have scored seven tries in their last three games, Dave Kearney (5/4 anytime) and Tommy Bowe (10/11 anytime) will fancy their chances of improving that record. If you fancy a Hail Mary bet, Iain Henderson has scored two in two and is adding an impressive energy to Ireland's forward pack - 80/1 for a double might be worth a pound!
I think this is the point Ireland begin to put their foot down in the run up to France - all green for me, and by enough to beat the 20-point handicap at 10/11.
