Friday 11 March 2016 19:08, UK
Alex Payne offers up his predictions for the fourth round of Six Nations fixtures, with silverware in England's sights.
Twickenham, Saturday 4pm
In the lead up to Wales, any mention of England's World Cup defeat has been dismissed around Pennyhill Park. But the reality is that it is unavoidable, heading into the game that looks likely to decide the outcome of this season's title.
As has been a theme for much of this Six Nations, the talk has been about the need for both teams to find a higher level. I'm not sure either side is ready to find a 'golden performance', as Wales did in 2013, but I do think England at home should be too strong.
I'm not sure we're looking at a match of stunning quality, but I think England have more to offer with ball in hand and should squeeze home by 6-10.
Although Wales are experienced, settled and physical, the reality is that the pool game was a match England should never have lost from 10 points up.
There appears a better balance to Eddie Jones' selection to that World Cup meeting. When England won in Cardiff a year ago, it was because of the attacking threat (Ford and Joseph) rather than the physical card they played in September (Barritt and Burgess).
I'm not sure we're looking at a match of stunning quality, but I think England have more to offer with ball in hand and should squeeze home by 6-10, a 4/1 chance with Sky Bet.
10 Tries Trend - 10 tries have been scored in the last five games between these two; all of them have come from scrum halves (three), outside centres (three) and wings (four).
England's elite - England's wingers have scored 18 tries in 15 tests since the start of last year's Six Nations. Anthony Watson has eight in 10 but I'm tipping Jack Nowell who has nine in nine - he is 11/4 to make that 10 in 10. Manu Tuilagi is lurking on the bench, and is 14/1 to score the last try.
Welsh wizard - Welsh scrum halves have scored in the last two against England, while Gareth Davies has scored six in his last eight tests: he is 4/1 with Sky Bet to better that on Saturday.
Aviva Stadium, Saturday 1.30pm
These are not happy times in the Ireland camp, and there is a very real danger that they will fall from the trophy to the Wooden Spoon if they collapse at home this weekend.
However, I think that is pretty unlikely - Ireland have lost just one of their last 10 home Six Nations games and have posted over 40 points in three of the last four meetings against the Italians.
Italy, as they have done so often before, look to be running out of puff at this stage of the campaign and I think Ireland should cruise home, beating the 24-point start at 10/11.
Ireland's inspiration - Josh van der Flier, who looked very comfortable on his test debut at Twickenham, is 6/4 to get the try he probably should have been awarded last weekend. If you like playing the longer odds, Irish front rowers have also scored four in four against Italy - Rory Best at 28/1 for a captain's first try could be make for a great weekend.
Italian Stallion - In seven of the last eight games against Ireland, the Italians have scored 11 points or less. I would consider no Italian try at 13/8, but three of their four tries in this campaign have come from the forwards. All roads in that regard lead to Sergio Parisse, who is 4/1 to score again.
Murrayfield, Sunday 3pm
After their lively show against the Italians, all the pressure and expectation is on Scotland this weekend.
Everyone has been waiting for France to stumble, and now they have, the trend is to write them off. But do so carefully - they have won 19 of the last 21 meetings with Scotland, and I have been burned already this campaign by tipping Scotland to defy recent history.
The last five games have all been settled by one score, and I am going to stick with that this weekend. Les Blues to have too much power and sneak home by 1-5.
Flying Scotsman - Despite their barren run of results against the French, Scottish wingers have had a field day scoring in 11 tries in the last 11 meetings between the two, including the last six consecutive games. Add in that Tommy Seymour has scored seven in his last eight tests and two in three against the French, and he is my must play at 9/4 for an anytime try.
French flutter - Maxime Medard. France have put their full-back over the tryline in two of the last four games, while Medard has a good record against the Scots, with three tries in five previous meetings. The Toulouse flier is 9/2 to add to that at Murrayfield.
