Japanese GP: George Russell vs Kimi Antonelli at Suzuka and can McLaren, Red Bull hit back in third round of 2026 F1 season?
George Russell leads Kimi Antonelli by four points in the Drivers' Championship with Ferrari looking to deny Mercedes from making it three wins in a row; watch every session of the Japanese GP this weekend live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday, with Sunday's race at 6am
Tuesday 24 March 2026 15:14, UK
Sky Sports F1 look at the key talking points ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix at the iconic Suzuka Circuit.
Russell vs Antonelli in full force?
George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have one Grand Prix victory each but are yet to battle on track, so will we see a full-blown all-out fight in Suzuka - a track which has delivered some epic duels over the years.
Russell took pole position by almost three tenths in Australia as Antonelli limited the damage by joining him on the front row after a huge shunt in final practice. In the race, Russell fended off Charles Leclerc early on while Antonelli recovered from a poor start to take second.
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It was almost a role reversal one week later in China as Russell suffered a technical issue in Q3 which hindered his performance, so Antonelli took advantage to become the youngest pole-sitter in F1 history and converted it into a win while Russell came home in second.
We did see a brief moment of racing between the Mercedes pair at the Chinese Grand Prix when Antonelli drifted to the inside on the run down to Turn 1, rather than blocking the fast-starting Ferraris of Lewis Hamilton and Leclerc.
He said: "I did a mistake because I covered George - not too much. But I left way too much room on the outside. That was a mistake of mine, also because I didn't see the two Ferraris coming."
It is a common move off the start line, to move towards the inside and compromise your rival, so was it really a mistake from Antonelli, given Russell is his closest challenger, even if he is his team-mate? That's something to keep an eye on over the next races.
Even with the different style of driving required to get the most out of the new 2026 F1 cars, Suzuka will still split the difference between the good and the great drivers, with its high-speed, sweeping first sector.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff is excited about the prospect of his drivers going for it in the battle for pole position, something we may finally see this Saturday.
"George has had the upper hand a little bit, and we didn't see the real epic qualifying on Saturday and also on Sunday, it never came to a head-to-head situation. We also need to consider that," he said after the last race in China.
"From the dynamics, George has always respected Kimi and acknowledged his speed and his ability.
"Now he has the win in the pocket, he's the same competitor that he was before. The really good ones recognise the other ones."
Ferrari's best chance to win yet?
On paper, Mercedes should lock out the front row but a Ferrari driver has been in the lead after the first lap of each Grand Prix so far.
Getting the new 2026 cars off the line are difficult due to the power unit changes which requires more time to spin up the turbo. It is a point Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur made to the FIA last year and he claims the governing body said the teams would have to design their cars around this factor.
Ferrari have a smaller turbo than other power unit manufacturers to benefit from having better getaways but championship leader Russell says Ferrari have been "selfish" about making changes to make starts easier, and arguably more safe.
Suzuka is one of the most difficult tracks to overtake at, as Max Verstappen proved last year by holding off the two McLarens in inferior machinery. Even though the new cars allow for more overtakes, the tight, high-speed nature of Suzuka will certainly mean we see less of the yoyo style racing we got in Melbourne and Shanghai.
To beat the mighty Mercedes, Leclerc and Hamilton may need to avoid squabbling to not lose race time. If they find themselves first and second after the opening lap, the sensible option would be to control the race, particularly given a one-stop race is likely so Mercedes would only have one opportunity to undercut the Ferraris.
The big question is which Ferrari driver will be the faster one? There's been nothing to separate Leclerc and Hamilton so far and both drivers will not want to settle for second.
Hamilton, who has been in Tokyo over the last week, said: "I think I can still eke out more performance from this car. I'm still learning about it as I go, particularly with deployment and that.
"Then on the backside, mid to end of last year, digging deep with the engineers and talking to them about the things that I wanted from a car that I didn't have any part of developing last year, to then develop the car with them this year and to see them listen and put some of those things that I'd asked for on the car.
"I'm incredibly grateful to them for listening on that side of things. It just makes you feel more united with everyone because you're moving in the same direction. So, I'm looking forward to getting back next week to Maranello and seeing everybody."
Can Piastri start a Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri has three points thanks to his sixth place in the Shanghai Sprint but has not even taken to the start of a Grands Prix in 2026 after crashing on the way to the grid in Australia, then suffered a technical issue five minutes before the formation lap in China.
Piastri has seen the lighter side of things by posing on social media "two weeks of watching F1" with some pictures, but it is a detrimental start to his season.
Other than the China Sprint, he's had no experience of the new style of racing and had less track time to understand the tyres and how to optimise the electrical energy use.
The only positive is McLaren have not been able to challenge for the podium spots, so Piastri has lost crucial points, but not the same big points losses he faced last year when fighting for wins.
"While this is never what we want to happen, this is just sometimes how it goes in racing," said Piastri.
"Even more frustrating is missing out on another race distance, as we know that time on track is critical in learning how to get the most out of this era of cars."
McLaren were half a second slower than Mercedes in Qualifying at the Chinese Grand Prix, and team boss Andrea Stella thinks the deficit is not all down to power unit optimisation.
"In Australia 50 per cent of the deficit to Mercedes was related to exploitation of the power unit, and the other 50 per cent grip in the corners," he said.
"I think we have closed the gap a little bit from the power unit exploitation, but when it comes to the corners, the gap we have is pretty much similar to what we saw in Australia.
"This is related to not having enough aerodynamic load. There's obviously grip that you generate by using the tyres in the right window, but I think we pretty much all understand how to use these tyres in qualifying, so the qualifying is a good reference to see actually what the deficit is from an aerodynamic point of view."
Verstappen's Suzuka run set to end
Max Verstappen has taken the last four pole positions and wins at the Japanese Grand Prix but his unbeaten run since F1 returned to Suzuka following the Covid-19 pandemic looks set to end, barring a miracle.
Verstappen, who raced a Mercedes GT3 car at the Nordschleife in Germany last Saturday, has delivered some tremendous qualifying laps under pressure but has been frustrated with the handling of his Red Bull car in the opening two rounds.
"I have not a lot of words at the moment. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong," he said after the Sprint in China, where he failed to pick up a point.
"The start is one problem we have to fix. After that, the balance is all over the place. Probably the highest degradation of everyone out there, which is uncontrollable, plus some other bits on the car that were not well prepared. We need to get our stuff together."
In some ways, it is better Red Bull are struggling with the handling of the car, rather than the power unit, as they have proved last year, they can develop their way out of trouble.
Their ability to come together as a team under Laurent Mekies to find engineering solutions is one reason why Verstappen was so buoyant during the run-in. Development will be high this season but Red Bull are likely to experience another tough weekend in Suzuka before bringing upgrades to the following rounds in Miami and Canada.
The 1997 F1 world champion Jacques Villeneuve said: "The car is unpredictable. Even last year when the car was slower, there was some form of balance and Max could drive the car.
"He was not reacting to the car, the car was reacting to him which means you can feel the car, set it up, gain a tenth or two here, can push hard and it will react, and the team knows how to develop it.
"When we see the rear [of the car] kicking around, that doesn't mean he has oversteer. It can still be an understeery car but at some point the rear kicks around, it never does the same thing and he ends up being a driver that reacts to the car. When that happens, you can set it up."
Aston Martin's nightmare continues on Honda home soil
Over a decade on from Fernando Alonso infamously declaring his Honda power unit as a "GP2 engine" when driving for McLaren, the Spaniard faces similar engine struggles again heading into Honda's home event.
Vibration issues and a shortage of batteries have limited the amount of running the Honda power unit can do, or, in Alonso's case in China, he was unable to physically continue due to the amount of force through the car, onto the steering wheel and to his hands.
It would be a spectacular result for Alonso or Lance Stroll in to be close to reaching Q2, then to finish all of the 53 laps around Suzuka on Sunday.
There is also off-track rumblings heading into Suzuka as Sky Sports News understands Aston Martin have shown interest in Jonathan Wheatley, who left Audi last week. Wheatley would replace Adrian Newey as team principal, so the legendary F1 designer can fully focus on car matters.
Elsewhere on the grid, there will be some special liveries on display as Mercedes are running a wolf-inspired front wing (although it has nothing to do with Toto Wolff), Racing Bulls are celebrating Red Bull's new Sprint edition can of the energy drink with some different colours and Haas are commemorating Godzilla.
Britain's Oliver Bearman has been the standout midfield driver so far, so keep an eye on him to continue his strong start to 2026 and maybe capitalise on any incidents at the front between Mercedes and Ferrari.
Sky Sports F1's Japanese GP schedule
Thursday March 26
4am: Drivers' Press Conference
7am: Paddock Uncut
Friday March 27
2am: Japanese GP Practice One (session starts at 2.30am)*
4.30am: Team Bosses' Press Conference
5.45am: Japanese GP Practice Two (session starts at 6am)*
7.15am: The F1 Show*
Saturday March 28
2.15am: Japanese GP Practice Three (session starts at 2.30am)*
5am: Japanese GP Qualifying build-up*
6am: JAPANESE GP QUALIFYING*
8am: Ted's Qualifying Notebook*
Sunday March 29
4.30am: Japanese GP build-up - Grand Prix Sunday*
6am: THE JAPANESE GRAND PRIX*
8am: Japanese GP reaction - Chequered Flag*
9am: Ted's Notebook*
*Also live on Sky Sports Main Event
Formula 1 heads to the iconic Suzuka Circuit for the Japanese Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime
