Do the Denver Nuggets have a Nikola Jokic problem?
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Sunday 8 December 2019 13:32, UK
Nikola Jokic stands accused of being out of shape, unfocused and unmotivated. Are these concerns about the Denver Nuggets All-Star real or is he suffering a characteristic short early-season slump? Sky Sports NBA analyst Mark Deeks investigates...
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In the month of November, the Denver Nuggets peeled off 10 wins in their first 11 games. Included in that stretch were victories over the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics, thus seeing them triumph over a tough stretch of their schedule.
An easy road win over the New York Knicks was sandwiched in between losses to the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers and in Boston against the Celtics, yet as a total body of work, the Nuggets, with their 14-6 record and the provisional third seed in the tough Western Conference behind only the Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks, is a pretty good start to a season in which they hope to prove legitimate title aspirations.
Defense wins championships, they say, and after ranking 10th in this category last season, the Nuggets are currently all the way up to second so far this year, behind only the rampant Milwaukee Bucks. Considering the aforementioned difficult schedule they have played, this is a very impressive achievement that forms the backbone of that legitimacy. This will not be a piece about the Nuggets' struggles to stay competitive; they are very good.
It is however unavoidable at this stage to comment on this team without highlighting their offensive struggles, and the start of Nikola Jokic in particular.
The success of one behooves the other. While the Nuggets are ranked only 20th offensively - a below-average mark that could undercut their defense if not remedied - the nightly triple-double man of last season, previously thought to have MVP credentials, is only averaging 15.7 points on 46.4 per cent shooting on the season.
Given that he is also barely getting to the free throw line, Jokic is only shooting a true shooting percentage of .525%..
The positive spin on Jokic's early-season struggles is to point out that his numbers are always lower in November. As a point of comparison, there was a four-game stretch to begin last November in which Jokic recorded four, seven, eight and four points only, while also committing 15 turnovers in that time.
Then he broke out with a 37-21 performance, and everything ultimately turned out fine. There's something about November that always seems to hold him back, but never for very long.
For his career to date, Jokic is averaging 4.3 fewer points per game in November (12.0) compared to his second-lowest month of December (16.3), with every other month coming between that mark and a healthy 18.7.
Perhaps, then, he is 'Shaq-ing' it out there, playing his way into shape throughout the course of the season, mindful of the fact that he needs some meat on the bones to handle the physicality he now requires with all the double-teams he draws.
In the load management era, it could be argued that this is a different form of it. Jokic taking a backseat offensively and allowing the rest of his very deep team to find their way - potentially at the cost of some regular-season wins, but clearly not at the cost of many given how good they have been to start the season - is managing his workload in a fashion.
Especially when considering his size and his long summer of world championship basketball, Jokic does need some protecting. Physical and mental fatigue is inevitable.
Denver's depth and continuity have been able to cover for 'The Joker', and the underappreciated and vital defense of Paul Millsap alongside him at power forward is as responsible for the team's overall quality as anything Jokic has done offensively.
But just as much as the Nuggets may have chosen to go away from such heavy reliance on Jokic, he may also have given them no choice with his play and conditioning. All that positive spin cannot disguise the fact that he looks big out there, and it seems to be having a negative impact.
That the Nuggets can survive without Jokic for periods, especially early in the season, does not mean that they should. And even if they can, it is becoming difficult to ignore the fact that Jokic is not playing with the same energy.
He is not going to the offensive boards for rebounds and he is missing many shots he would normally usually make. He is taking early three-pointers, the easiest shots to attempt, but he is not making them, shooting only 22.1 per cent from outside on the season.
Per Synergy Sports, Jokic's usage has changed from last season, which may drive to the core of his struggles. Our preseason look at the Nuggets spoke on how their entire offensive ideology is based around the two-man game with Jokic and Jamal Murray, but while that had previously been the case, the Nuggets so far this season have employed less of it.
More of the offense is going through Murray, not Jokic in the high or low posts. And with that in mind, except for the early threes - which are, by any measure, easier to take - Jokic is shooting and attacking less from the elbow areas he previously thrived in.
In a league full of American players programmed to tweet about how hard they work, and about how the grind is the journey and other such bilge, the obviously stocky European with the thick accent and sardonic delivery is a striking counterpoint.
How much of the Jokic situation is optics and how much is actually important for the team's prognosis is up for debate, and unanswerable on this side of the fence. There is certainly evidence for Jokic being out of shape, and there is indisputable evidence that he is not playing at his best, but there is also evidence that this is just the way he begins seasons, and it tends not to matter as the year goes on.
Jokic does not have to put in the stats, average the triple-double and have the ability and desire to take over games when required now, as long as he does so in April. And the positive spin can again say that in not pursuing his individual numbers in this way, Jokic is making the sacrifice for the team.
However, concerns about his size and conditioning are not just about the narrative, but about performance. An out-of-shape Jokic caps the upside of both himself and the team. Not because he is needing to change his game and suddenly turn into Kawhi Leonard out there, but simply because it is hampering what he is already known to do best. This is not a hypothetical, either; it has already been happening, November trends be damned.
A quarter of the way into this season, the question from this side of the fence looms large over an otherwise decent start for the team; if he is not the focus, is he still going to be motivated?
Let's hope so, even if he isn't right now.
