Wednesday 16 October 2019 20:25, UK
Whereas most of their peers have undergone significant changes, the Denver Nuggets have gone for continuity. Sky Sports NBA analyst Mark Deeks says their patience may pay off.
Whereas many of their peers have made substantial changes to their teams over the offseason, in an era of greater player movement than ever, the Denver Nuggets have bucked the trend and run back almost entirely the same team.
They changed their two players on the very end of the bench on two-way contracts. They replaced little-used reserve young forward and 2017 draft pick Tyler Lydon with little-used reserved young forward and 2017 draft pick Vlatko Cancar. They let Isaiah Thomas walk, replacing the significantly undersized scorer with PJ Dozier, a playmaker and much larger wing player.
And they let Trey Lyles walk in free agency, instead trading a first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Jerami Grant.
Considering that Lydon, Thomas and the two-way players were not in the playing rotation, and that Lyles had been a big disappointment last season, the Nuggets are therefore running back essentially exactly the same rotation, except now with Jerami Grant for Lyles.
Whereas most of their peers have undergone significant changes - even the Golden State Warriors have had to change half of their playing rotation - Denver has gone for continuity.
What empowers them to do so is how young their team is, especially for a contender. The Nuggets had the fourth-youngest team in the NBA last season, with an average age of 24.7 at year's end, and among the playing rotation, only Paul Millsap is older than 29.
It therefore follows logically that Denver can improve more internally using what they already have than their rivals, especially considering that the two-man game between Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic that lies at the crux of their team is made up of two players with a combined age of just 46.
Further to this, Grant over Lyles is clearly an upgrade. Grant emerged last season both as a defender across the front-court and also a much-improved floor spacer - even if Denver's returning players do not improve one jot, they should improve through this move alone.
But are the Nuggets relying on this internal improvement and the Grant addition going to be enough to contend in an even stronger Western Conference? Or were there other things they needed to address?
By running back essentially the same team, the Nuggets will be heading into this season with some of the same rotational questions as last year. Specifically, the immediate and long-term future at the small forward spot is unclear.
Will Barton - once a player so popular that he went by the nickname of the 'People's Champion' - was re-signed for $53m in the summer of 2018 in the expectation that he could be the starter. But he was absent for half the year with injury, and when he did play, he forced too much of the action and was not an overall positive.
Even when playing at his best, Barton is undersized for the small forward position, and breakout reserve shooter Malik Beasley is no bigger. Third-year forward Juancho Hernangomez has had time at the position, but is too slow laterally to defend the quicker players at the spot, and although two-year veteran Torrey Craig has provided some good defensive minutes at the position, his offensive contributions are very marginal.
Similarly, the starting backcourt of Murray and Gary Harris is also undersized, particularly when primary (indeed, as things currently stand, the only) point guard reserve Monte Morris is included.
Harris, like Barton, had an injury-affected 2018-19 season, and was not at his best when he returned. His down year highlighted voids on the team in terms of both backcourt leadership in clutch situations, and also the need for a third offensive star to alleviate some of the reliance on Jokic. Unless he too is able not only get back to where he was, but improve upon it, these questions will also hang over the team.
The reserve center spot has also been an issue at times, and one that has not been addressed over the offseason (unless Tyler Zeller makes the team). Grant can only play the center spot in specific match-ups, as he gives up too much height and strength to the real bruisers at the position, and while he came up in this league playing a lot of small forward, giving rise to the hope that he can answer that question for Denver as well, he is much better served defending stretch power forwards such as himself rather than having to play against the dynamic perimeter athletes so regularly found at that position.
From an overall talent perspective, though, Denver are strong. The upside to all the injuries they suffered last season was that they gave the opportunities for Morris, Beasley and Craig to prove themselves as quality players on a contending team like theirs, and at two positions at least, Denver are extremely deep.
If they made considerably fewer moves over the summer than their peers, that is in large part because they didn't need to make as many. This is a Nuggets team that won 58 games last season despite the injuries to Harris, Barton and others, and further to this, they also will have some X-Factors in play.
The most obvious of these is Michael Porter Jr, who will enter his second season in the NBA having yet to play a minute in it. Once thought to be a candidate for a top-three pick, Porter Jr fell down the 2018 Draft all the way to the Nuggets at No 14 on account of his prolonged back injury, and after another surgery soon after the draft, the precaution was taken to shut him down for his entire rookie year.
A healthy Porter is much more talented than the 14th best player in his draft pool. Long and languid, he also has excellent shooting touch combined with the ability to put the ball on the floor, better in both categories than Lyles ever was.
Porter has a very low floor as a prospect - considering how his last couple of years have gone and the worrying nature of his injury, there is no guarantee he will ever be a regular or reliable contributor - but he also has an incredibly high ceiling. He is the kind of talent infusion that a team on the cusp like the Nuggets would normally have to strive so hard to get in from elsewhere, and yet there he is, already on the bench.
Denver will also have the aforementioned two-man game of Murray and Jokic continue to build around, and both should come back improved.
Murray made important incremental strides on his way to becoming a star combo guard last season, doing a better job of playmaking for others and working the two-man game in the half-court to his advantage, dropping a barrage of pull-ups off the dribble from all areas.
Jokic meanwhile is already the star, the transcendent talent, the all-time great passer who can score from all areas himself. As an offensive pair, the two are enviably brilliant.
And of course, just because the offseason is over, the roster is not necessarily set.
Roster construction and the transaction market are fluid and everlasting, and opportunities to upgrade in a way they did not do this summer will present themselves.
The Washington Wizards, for example, are going to be near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and thus would be fools not to listen to trade offers for their lonely star Bradley Beal.
Would a package built around Harris and Porter (potentially with Harris going to a third team and giving Washington salary relief instead) not be a pretty enticing start to negotiations?
The Nuggets did not do much this offseason. But their patience may yet prove to be a virtue.
