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Wednesday 11 December 2019 17:01, UK
Pascal Siakam has taken to the task of replacing Kawhi Leonard as the Raptors No 1 option admirably, but he isn't the finished article yet. Mark Deeks explores the areas where, if Siakam can improve, he will elevate his game further and reach the level of the NBA's greatest players.
The Toronto Raptors are putting up one of the quietest title defences ever seen. But quietest certainly does not mean worst.
That honour would go to a team like the 1998/99 Chicago Bulls, who blew it up immediately after winning and simply did not try to compete the following year. Or alternatively, the 2018/19 Cleveland Cavaliers, who had lost LeBron James as a free agent, and with him, all semblance of hope.
Considering that they lost Kawhi Leonard as a free agent over the summer just like Cleveland did with LeBron, it would be understandable if Toronto had similarly fallen off this season. As it is, though, they are right there in the pack of five teams chasing the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference.
Even after a three-game losing streak, they are in the provisional fifth seed with a 16-7 record, on pace for a 57-win season. Last year, they won 58. You could be fooled for thinking that they had not lost their best player for no returning assets at all.
The fact that the Raptors have remained so competitive while enduring this great loss, and while also adding very few players of note, is a testament to their strength in depth. Certainly, that depth is being stretched by Leonard's departure, yet the Raptors won the title due to their defensive crescendo, playing absolutely stiflingly on that end during their postseason run. And as big as Leonard - one of the best two-way superstars in modern history - was in that, the defensive schemes and most of the personnel remain, and under-the-radar offseason additions such as Terence Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have fit quite nicely into the schematics.
As has the continued growth of Pascal Siakam at power forward in his absence.
Now unmistakably the team's primary offensive creator, Siakam is up to 24.6 points per game, suffering a small and inevitable hit to his overall scoring efficiency without the gravity of Leonard alongside him yet stepping up to fill that massive void admirably for only a fourth-year player.
Were it not for the elevation to the MVP consideration-level of Luka Doncic in Dallas, Siakam might be the favourite to win an unprecedented second consecutive Most Improved Player award.
This, though, is not intended to be a piece looking at how Siakam has grown. Instead, let us explore areas in which he still needs to irrefutably prove himself in order to reach these levels he has now made possible.
Specifically, one key area of concern going forward is how Siakam will play as the primary offensive playmaker in the clutch. Considering he has only been the best player on an NBA team for 23 games now, it is understandable that he is looking inexperienced considering his lack of reps in this role.
The concern though is in how the early indications are that, like DeMar DeRozan before him, Siakam is trying to do either too much or too little in crunch-time moments.
Crunch-time play, as much as the defense, was integral to Toronto's conquests in the 2019 postseason. Previous additions of the Raptors had flailed in the postseason when the going got tough - DeRozan and Kyle Lowry were frequently criticised for their play in such moments, as was the overall isolation-heavy philosophy the team defaulted to. That philosophy, however, paid greater dividends when someone with the unflappable swag and talent of Leonard was given the ball and asked to win the game.
Siakam as of right now does not have that defiance and confidence. Indeed, currently, he largely eschews the responsibility at times, while taking on too much at others. Without Leonard in the fold, Siakam has become the lynchpin on both ends, but without Leonard in the fold, he is not able to play with the freedom that he previously could.
There is greater responsibility now, more composure required, more stamina needed. And as impressive as Siakam has been overall, it would appear as though a by-product of this has been a clutch-time tendency to disappear, overly hunt fouls, force the action and forget to keep passing.
When Lowry was out earlier this season, Siakam was regularly drawing double teams from the very start of the game. And once early season foul trouble subsided, he dealt with them generally well. Always excellent in transition, Siakam's agility and handle to drive past defenders on the break or on ball reversals combined with his ability to blow past and sneak around them down in the post to draw more defensive attention than ever before.
When this happened, he did a good job of not forcing the action, moving before the doubles got there and finding team-mates either spotting up or on the cut.
That has however only been seen in fits and starts. Without Kawhi or Lowry, the Raptors rely on Siakam more as an isolation player than ever before. Last season, isolation possessions made up only 9.9 per cent of his total offensive usage; this season, that number has nearly doubled to 18.6 per cent. And although he is shooting an impressive 58.8 per cent in such possessions, a 17.1 per cent turnover rate is undercutting that slightly.
Taking on greater responsibility offensively has meant playing more regularly away from the basket on the ball. With his usage rate up eight per cent overall from last season, Siakam has continued to improve as a three-point shooter, especially from above the break, and the versatility in his game is its greatest virtue. Where once he was so regularly in the corners, he is now up top beginning plays or being sought after down in the post; that is to say, in the areas that Kawhi used to be in.
Added responsibility, the pressure of a maximum contract, the weight of expectation and the 'Disease of More', combined with having to change the areas of the court that he plays in, is a lot to take on in one go. With impressive overall production on the year, Siakam is generally taking to the task admirably.
For whatever reason thus far this season, though, he has missed many more relatively easy shots at the rim than ever before. Overly seeking contact, he has become softer on his drives to the basket, particularly late in games. Siakam is not physically strong in the upper body, yet at his best, he attacks anyway and uses his athletic tools. Perhaps discombobulated due to all the adjustments required, he has lacked the same bite in attack, particularly in the clutch.
Siakam's ability to score in isolation is something best realised against more traditional bigs, those slower of foot and less willing to come out to guard him. Facing traditional centers like Jonas Valanciunas and Hassan Whiteside, he has the huge advantage. When up against more modern and mobile defenders, though, players such as himself who can cover the ground like he can, he has been less effective.
The top 10 teams in the NBA sorted by defensive rating not including Toronto themselves are Milwaukee, Denver, Boston, Philadelphia, both teams from Los Angeles, Indiana, Miami and Orlando. In his 10 games against those teams thus far this season, Siakam is overall shooting only 38.9 per cent from the field. Only three times has he shot over 40 per cent.
In those games, athletic and rangy modern frontcourt defenders such as Jonathan Isaac (Orlando), Bam Adebayo (Miami) and Ben Simmons (Philadelphia) have frustrated him, using their own length and agility to be able to keep up with him on the drive, and obstruct his vision, passing and handle in traffic.
Certainly, all players struggle more when going up against better defenders. But it is when challenged in these particularly difficult match-ups that Siakam needs to adjust the most, work as a decoy, keep attacking aggressively, and keep up the defensive intensity. Often times of late, when shouldering the heavy offensive burden and not scoring well, that intensity has dropped in a way not seen over his first three years.
None of this is to say that Siakam is anything less than a wonderful player. He has his imperfections, but we all do, even Giannis Antetokounmpo, and while Siakam will never quite achieve the heights of what the 'Greek Freak' has become, he is going to get remarkably close to it if he keeps growing at the rate that he has.
There have been moments in the clutch, too, such as a big late basket in a five-point win over Simmons and the 76ers back in late November. As an overall body of work, all is well.
Too often, though, Siakam seems not to want the ball at these times yet. If he does not take to the challenge better going forwards, he will not achieve his full potential. And considering the talent disparity behind him, plus Lowry's legacy and age, if he does not want it or get it, then the Raptors as a team will not achieve their full potential either.
Like his team, Siakam is again proving better than expected, to be deeply respected still…but not quite what they were with Kawhi. Not yet, anyway.
