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Wednesday 25 December 2019 22:14, UK
The LA Clippers have the core of a dominant team in place yet seem prone to blowing big leads late in games, often to inferior opposition. Mark Deeks examines a possible dent in the Clippers' formidable armour.
After acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George over the summer, the LA Clippers were vaunted immediately into contention in the eyes of… well, everyone. With a paring like that alongside a bench duo of Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams, it would be hard not to be.
By and large, they have been roughly as good as expected. It is true their in-city rivals the Lakers are three games ahead and three places ahead in the standings, while both the Denver Nuggets (winners of seven in a row) and the Houston Rockets (four in a row) are also ahead of them out west. Yet in having the NBA's sixth-best offense, seventh-best defense and with 16 double-digit wins already, the core of a dominant team is in place.
However, a tendency to blow leads has seen them give away games they should otherwise win. On the season thus far, the Clippers have lost to likely lottery opposition in the forms of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Chicago Bulls, the New Orleans Pelicans and the San Antonio Spurs.
Perhaps more worryingly, they tend to lose the games against their fellow competitors. They are 2-1 down in the season series against the Rockets, and have lost both of their games against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Sometimes, a team that is expected to have been elevated to greatness the preceding summer starts slowly. Take for example the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who, after adding LeBron James and Chris Bosh to form the 'Heatles', started out only 9-8 the following year. To those wanting the experiment to fail, it was tremendous ammunition. Yet they subsequently won 21 of their next 22 games, won two titles in the next four years, and put in the second-longest winning streak in NBA history along the way. It was nothing but a false dawn and teething troubles after such a substantial regeneration.
Normally, of course, the eventual title winner storms it out of the gate. The 2007-08 Boston Celtics, coached by the very same Doc Rivers as these Clippers, began their season on a furious 30-3 run, and even last year's Toronto Raptors, without being as highly-touted after acquiring Kawhi as these Clippers were, began 12-1 and 20-4.
Nevertheless, an adjustment period after adding such an elite player is understandable. Especially when said elite player is the poster child for the modern principle of "load management" (a PR-friendly way of saying "rested for certain games because they have a long-standing injury that they do not want to over-extend again"). George also recovering from surgery to both shoulders to begin the season will not have helped with that either.
We would be remiss to simply ascribe the losses to Leonard's absence. A team that still features George, Williams, Harrell, Patrick Beverley and Ivica Zubac as a front five alongside other good role players such as JaMychal Green, Rodney McGruder, Landry Shamet and Mo Harkless should still be beating the likes of the Bulls and Pelicans. Nine games is a significant-enough-portion of the season as a whole to worry about whether the rest of the team has the fortitude to do it without their superstar.
In those losses, that same outline of dominance can be seen. In the last three, in particular, the Clippers led by at least 15 each time, which should be plenty good enough to close the door.
The positive interpretation of this is to say the Clippers, foundationally, are as good as required and certainly have the ability to be as dominant as any team ever. The losses to the Bulls, Pelicans and Thunder, in particular, can be cited as all having been road games on the second half of back-to-backs, never easy ones to win and an unpleasant reality of the NBA's hefty schedule that will not apply come playoff time.
More convenient arguments with some truth to them would be to say that the Clippers have yet to ever be at full health, with Kawhi only playing 23 games, George only 21 and Shamet only 15, and there is no incentive to force the issue and go for the top seed by overextending the roster (and Leonard in particular) when all that really matters is the postseason.
Both of which would be much easier to stomach were it not for the blown leads.
Last year, the Clippers were the ones mounting the furious comebacks. This year, they are the ones allowing them.
Excessive late-game isolation possessions and timely turnovers, the rotation of role-players at the point guard position who cannot play these spots traditionally as floor generals (think of how Leonard last year had Kyle Lowry as a pressure-release valve), plus some defensive frailties at the five spot (as we explored as a possibility early in the year) have dovetailed together to poke some holes in the dike.
Without overly questioning their title credibility - they would have to be a lot further behind than this for that to be called into question - it is fair to ask some questions about their performance thus far.
The attraction of a Beverley/Williams/Leonard/George/Harrell crunch-time line-up is obvious. That is an excellent team with four premium offensive players and three premium defenders, that has balance, shot creation, shooting and interior finishing.
However, using that line-up so much does mean giving up size; Zubac is the team's biggest player and primary interior defender and a starter averaging 17 minutes per contest, alongside a very healthy 8.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game in that time. He has however played only 28 fourth-quarter minutes all season, only once recording more than five, that being the nine he received in the big blowout loss to the Bucks in early December.
As excellent as Harrell has become as a player, his growth has mostly been offensive; if he is the only option for the backline of the defense, points will be leaked, which has been one of the problematic symptoms for the Clippers in these losses.
Moreover, the tendency to blow late leads comes down to poor late-game execution. Excessive isolations and long two-pointers reduce the offensive efficiency significantly, and while Leonard as an individual taking these shots was a big part of the reason why the Raptors were able to win the title last year, it is different when it is Lou Williams doing it. Kawhi's load management is going to happen indefinitely - regardless of the optics of it, it seems to work, and if it really is the best way to keep his lower body healthy, then it needs to happen. The Clippers, therefore, need to be able to play without him.
In the regular season, at least.
In the playoffs, this might not matter. Rotations invariably tighten up in the postseason, and if the Clippers are to run only an eight-man rotation featuring their regular starters, Harrell, Green and Williams - or nine including Harkless - then they will have possibly the strongest rotation of any postseason team. The minutes to Patrick Patterson and Jerome Robinson et cetera that have not been fruitful on the season thus far will no longer apply.
Everything that happens in October through April is a precursor to what happens after that, but not a determination of it. If the Clippers are using this time to discover what pieces they have, who can be relied upon, how they can play without their best player and manage the health of their most important guys with a view to medium-term competitiveness, these are all valid strategies.
These justifications, however, do not absolve some worryingly poor performances at times. The Clippers are good, and will likely be very good, but they should have been better than this.
