Thursday 9 January 2020 16:24, UK
The Oklahoma City Thunder were pencilled in as lottery-bound this season but now look certain to make the playoffs. Like his team, Chris Paul has surpassed expectations too and he deserves to be an All-Star as a result, writes Mark Deeks.
In his age 34 season, Chris Paul of the Oklahoma City Thunder is averaging the lowest assists per game total of his career.
Not since he was a freshman with Wake Forest all the way back in 2003-04 has he passed for as little as the 6.5 assists per game that he is averaging this season. His assist rate of 31.8 per cent significantly trails his 45 per cent average for his career, and his 1.5 steals per game is also by far his lowest mark ever.
Furthermore, as a scorer, Paul's 16.6 points per game total is the fourth-lowest mark of his NBA career, and as he approaches 1,000 regular season games played, no one can dispute that the best days are behind him.
So, he got older. That's that established. Now, let's make an argument for him making the Western Conference All-Star team this year anyway.
Paul's new team, the Thunder, provisionally ranks in the seventh seed in the West, and there is a big gap to eighth, ninth and 10th. Barring a second-half implosion, they will make the playoffs this season, with a good chance of matching up against the same Houston Rockets team that gave up on Paul over the summer.
Considering the Thunder were a near-unanimous pick to miss the playoffs after trading away each of Paul George, Russell Westbrook and Jerami Grant in the summer, the fact they look increasingly like dead certs to make the postseason counts heavily in Paul's All-Star favour.
Whether or not the Thunder should have been pencilled in as lottery-bound considering the quality of their four-man unit of Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (a breakout star who did not come entirely from nowhere after a strong all-round rookie campaign with the LA Clippers that made him the centrepiece of the George trade), Danilo Gallinari (a fringe All-Star himself for a decade) and Steven Adams (a valuable center) is a legitimate question.
But if the expectations were unfairly low, it only benefits Paul, as he can be said to be a bigger reason why they were surpassed.
To be sure, beyond the basic counting stats and the optics that come from the defied expectations, Paul has been very good. In complete control of the game in a way that the Thunder never had with Westbrook at the helm, Paul is having a bounce-back season, scoring much more efficiently, committing fewer turnovers and being much more effective in clutch situations than he was last year for the Rockets.
As evidenced by scoring 20 points over the fourth quarter and overtime periods combined in a win earlier this week against the Brooklyn Nets, Paul has become the reliable veteran leader in late-game situations, shooting a remarkable 54.0 per cent in the fourth quarter, nine per cent greater than in any other one.
For comparison's sake, in his fourth quarters this year, LeBron James is shooting 43.1 per cent.
That increase in Paul's performance in the fourth quarter is a feature, not a fluke. The Thunder still sorely lack for any kind of wing creation or consistent offense from the small forward position, and thus have used a lot of three guard line-ups this season featuring Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander and the more mercurial Dennis Schroder.
It is customary for Paul to sit back across the first three quarters and let Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroeder take their turns, and then, if the team is behind or the game is tight headed into the final period, Paul steps up and wins it.
Oklahoma City has won 11 games this season in which they entered the fourth quarter trailing - considering they have only played 37 times thus far, this is a very impressive return.
The lack of depth on the team is responsible for why they so often go to the final stanza trailing, yet they have been able to rely upon their star veteran to drag them back out of it so often as well.
At a time when the NBA has moved irreversibly towards pace and space, Paul operates in stout defiance of the new orthodoxy. His area is the mid-range; shooting exactly 50 per cent on the season between 10 feet and the three-point line, he is doing the very same things that defenses are now ritualistically trained to allow.
But you cannot allow it when Paul does it, because he does it too well.
You also cannot really stop it, as, with his permanently-tight dribble and understanding of angles, Paul can glide his way into a pull-up two-pointer in this way whenever he wants. He can also pass out of them to the corners and wings far better than most, too, and thus has defences on a string when at his best.
Slightly losing his speed and stamina in the second half of his career means Paul cannot do this as often as he once did. But he does it no less well, and now that he is no longer with a Rockets team so committed to the volume three-point shooting that he as an individual has never been as good at, Paul is back in the areas in which he operates best. The effect on both his individual production and his team's success is palpable.
With Steph Curry and Klay Thompson out, there is a vacancy at guard on the Western All-Star roster. Mike Conley has not played well or been healthy, so he once again will not make it, and although his Jazz backcourt mate Donovan Mitchell has made distinct and important improvements to his game this year to overcome the Conley deficiency, the West has not seen any new guard candidates rise up to claim a spot.
Team success is too important to one's credentials for someone like Devin Booker or Jrue Holiday to be more likely to win a spot over Paul.
Positional classifications are somewhat arbitrary in basketball, yet for all star purposes, it has long been decided that they matter. With that in mind, the classifications of LeBron James (career-long forward playing full time as a guard) and Luka Doncic (guard in forward's body) might squeeze out having an extra guard, thus pushing Paul out once again. There is nonetheless space among the reserve spots for a game-winner such as himself.
The great irony might be if Paul is to win an All-Star spot, he will do so at the expense of the man he was traded for. Westbrook has improved over the last month, yet his overall numbers on the season do not impress. The scoring efficiency that tapered off so strongly over the past two seasons has not come back to him, and yet he remains hugely aggressive in seeking his shots without being able to consistently make them.
In direct contrast to Paul's considered manner and tempo management, Westbrook still goes balls out. But Paul's way is working better, and the poor clutch decision-making of the Thunder under Westbrook's stewardship that submarined them for so many years is now a thing of the past.
No other team has won more than five games when trailing going into the fourth quarter. No other team has Chris Paul.
Whether Paul's way could have worked better alongside the ball-dominant James Harden is a topic for other spaces. The Rockets clearly did not think it would, hence why they traded him; Harden clearly did not think it would, hence why he asked them to.
Irrespective of that, being moved over the summer and given the keys to a team once again has given Paul the opportunity to show that, yes, there are still some sparks in the fire. He has thrown a couple of logs onto it.
By way of a final comparison, consider what could be the otherwise comparable case of the younger Damian Lillard. Out in Portland, Lillard is still being Lillard. His team is falling off around him, but that is due to a series of injuries, departures and a lack of depth rather than any failing by himself. He has tried to carry his undermanned team just as Paul has. But he has not been able to as well as the 'old man'.
Paul has continued to be Paul as well, even though he has lost his fastball, does not turn the corner quite as quickly as he did, has had to ease off with the defensive pressure and has to be increasingly selective about when he tries to take over the game.
But for him to have sustained his level of play, and yet to also have improved it from last year and become such a takeover threat once again, when considering his age, is quite the redux.
One more All-Star berth in the final chapter of his career would be a fitting tribute, and certainly not the end.
